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June 28, 4:00 PM ET
Chat with KC Joyner

KC Joyner
  (4:00 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!

Chris L. (Burlington, NC)

Why do you hate Cam Newton?

KC Joyner
  (4:02 PM)

You do realize this is a fantasy football chat, right? I don't hate Newton in any case but in FFB, I'm completely on his bandwagon. Have him rated fifth among QBs in the TFS 2012 FFB Draft Guide.

Alex (Anaheim)

Is is worth drafting a quarterback early? I go back and forth every year.

KC Joyner
  (4:03 PM)

With the relatively weak state of the RB class this year, taking a QB can definitely make sense. Got 5 QBs in the first 10 players on the TFS overall cheat sheet.

Matt (Houston)

Would you keep Stafford if he cost a 6th round pick this year or would you keep Gronk at a 14th round pick?

KC Joyner
  (4:04 PM)

Stafford. Gronk is a great TE but has some limitations and will drop back down to earth a bit. Stafford should stay among the high-end QBs for a long time.

John (NY)

Bradshaw averaged only 3.9 ypc last season...do you see David Wilson taking over the backfield this season?

KC Joyner
  (4:05 PM)

Yes and no. Wilson has some limitations in his game (pass blocking isn't his forte), so it is hard to see him becoming a the lead back in that offense in 2012.

Kev (NYC)

Where do you have Eli ranked for 2012?

KC Joyner
  (4:06 PM)

This year saw the addition of the blue rating for the truly elite FFB players (Rodgers, Megatron, etc.). Eli didn't quite make it into that category but he is the highest green-rated QB. Sixth overall among QBs.

Kram (Waikikeek)

KC, last week you mentioned Richardson as a potential surprise RB1 as a rookie. Aren't you concerned that he faces the Ravens and Steelers four times this year? Do you think Weedon will be good enough to open things up for Richardson? And if so, will Greg Little be the sleeper WR I hope to draft in the 12th round or later?

KC Joyner
  (4:07 PM)

The Browns rated last in the league in GBYPA but they ranked in the middle of the league in good blocking rate (GBR). What that says is Hillis was the problem for that ground game, as he got very little productivity even when he was given good blocking. Richardson will do better with the blocking.

David (RI)

Doug martin...thoughts on his NFL career?

KC Joyner
  (4:08 PM)

The TFS Draft Guide points out that Martin had some really poor metrics in his college career. That has to be a concern so I'm not entirely sold on him.

Martin (New York, NY)

In terms of keepers, would you rather keep Foster ($60) or Rodgers ($50). This is with a $200 drafting budget. Initially, I've been leaning towards Rodgers, but the drop in RB's after Foster/Rice/McCoy is steep.

KC Joyner
  (4:10 PM)

The RB drop-off is deep but the ideal top player is one with pretty much zero question marks. Foster has a question mark or two and Rodgers doesn't, so I'd pick Rodgers in this case.

Matt (Houston)

Does Percy Harvin rate as a WR1 in your metrics or will Ponder and the suspect OL keep him relegated to a WR2 or even WR3?

KC Joyner
  (4:11 PM)

There is a lot to like about Harvin but the injury woes (dating back to his days at UF) make him a mid WR2 in the FDG.

james (cincinnati)

if you had the number one pick in a fantasy draft who would you pick

KC Joyner
  (4:12 PM)

Rodgers rated first in the guide. He scores a ton of points, has a ton of talent around him and has fewer question marks than any other top-range player. That No. 1 pick ideally has zero question marks and Rodgers is really the only player about whom that can be said.

Al (Wausau, WI)

KC, given Adrian Peterson's injury and his recovery so far, what impact do you think his injury will have on his fantasy football status? Might he still be worth an early pick in 2012 fantasy football leagues?

KC Joyner
  (4:13 PM)

Got Peterson ranked 15th in the Draft Guide because even if he only plays 10 games (i.e. if he is on the PUP list to start the season), he's still capable of being a top 15 fantasy RB.

KC Joyner
  (4:13 PM)

Got Peterson ranked 15th in the Draft Guide because even if he only plays 10 games (i.e. if he is on the PUP list to start the season), he's still capable of being a top 15 fantasy RB.

Eric (Chicago)

KC, how do you see Lynch and Mathews stacking up this year? Which one would you rather have?

KC Joyner
  (4:14 PM)

Mathews for a number of reasons. SD is talking about making him even more of a bell cow being the most notable. Plus there is the concern that Lynch might not be as motivated now that he landed the big contract.

TK (Philly)

Ahhhh..... Fantasy Football season has begun!! Need some insight on WR's worth taking in the first 2 rounds... who you got? Andre Johnson has screwed me with injsuries the past two years... not sure I'd go with him until at least the 3rd round.

KC Joyner
  (4:16 PM)

As deep as the FFB WR corps is this year in many ways, that position still only ended up with two blue-rated players (Megatron and Fitz). Every other top WR has some sort of question mark, but most of them don't have the injury question marks that Johnson brings to the table. Like Atlantas' wideouts as good alternates over Johnson.

David (RI)

what Questions would you have for Ray Rice as number 1 pick???

KC Joyner
  (4:17 PM)

Bernard Pierce would be the biggest question mark for Rice. Pierce scored 27 rushing touchdowns at Temple last year. Baltimore could decide to make him the goal line back and thus reduce Rice's value.

Kevin (Cincinnati)

Eli, Cam, or Romo...which one do you like best this season?

KC Joyner
  (4:18 PM)

From a fantasy perspective, Cam is the highest rated in the TFS 2012 FFB Draft Guide. Eli and Romo are ranked just below him on the QB list but Cam has a blue rating and Eli/Romo have green ratings, so Cam is the definite pick.

KC Joyner
  (4:19 PM)

Quick note - the draft guide is available for purchase at www.thefootballscientist.com. Only site plug of the chat.

Kirvin (Atlanta)

I'm torn between Julio & Brandon Marshall in just about every mock draft. Which WR do you like most going into the season?

KC Joyner
  (4:20 PM)

In Marshall's case, a lot of his value could depend on whether or not Forte holds out. That and a couple of other items have him ranked behind Jones on the WR cheat sheet.

David (RI)

Really?? trust the ball in a rookie's hands at the goal line instead of your bell cow who scored 15 tds last season? Not buying it KC

KC Joyner
  (4:21 PM)

It's not a trust factor, David. It would be a potential wear and tear issue. And right now it's a question mark but that could be cleared up between now and most fantasy drafts. If it becomes clear Rice is still the goal line back, his ranking could be re-visited.

Craig G. (Fairfield, CA)

Biggest sleeper: Justin Blackmon, Mario Manningham or Malcolm Floyd?

KC Joyner
  (4:22 PM)

Blackmon and the Jags offense have question marks. Manningham could be a No. 3 WR on a run-first team. Floyd will be the starter on a vertically inclined, pass-first team. Got to think Floyd wins that one.

Darth Ditka (Destin, Florida)

Biggest sleeper of the year? Who you got? Chalk me up for Jake Locker. It's a reach cuz he might not play. But that kid can play.

KC Joyner
  (4:24 PM)

The Titans have the makings of a dominant offense, as they have maybe more potential home run hitters than any other team. Locker will have terrific FFB value if he wins the starting job but will the Titans want to start him in that brutal four-game stretch to start the season?

Al (Wausau, WI)

KC, what do you feel will be the top 3 fantasy football defenses in 2012?

KC Joyner
  (4:25 PM)

There were no blue-rated defenses this year, but there are 10 green-rated ones, so there is quality starting depth. Top 3 would be SF, Chicago and Seattle.

Dorion (GA)

We have a 2 QB leaugue but we have 3 RB slots would you take two QB's with the first two picks ?

KC Joyner
  (4:26 PM)

In general, you always want to pick the starters who are going to give a team the most points. That probably means picking two QBs first, but that's a general rule and subject to change depending on circumstance.

Ryan (NYC)

Can you comment on the Lions RB situation and Best/Leshoure's value in a ppr league

KC Joyner
  (4:27 PM)

Best had a fantastic GBYPA but it was on a limited number of carries. The Lions aren't far from having a good rushing attack and their RBs will be undervalued in drafts, so maybe the best plan is to aim to take both of them with lower round picks and see how it pans out. Cost would be low and upside could be high.

Fat Tony (Palatine, IL)

Would you keep Harvin for $6 or Demarius Thomas for $5 ($100 budget)? Thomas seems to have crazy upside if Peyton is healthy!

KC Joyner
  (4:28 PM)

Harvin because he's a proven commodity. Thomas has had injury woes in the pros and Peyton's long passing ability is still very much in question.

james (cincinnati)

do you think adrian peterson will be ready by week 1

KC Joyner
  (4:30 PM)

That can be answered a couple of ways. He might be healthy enough to play but the Vikings may decide they want to wait until he is 100 percent before bringing him back. Odds are he won't be a true bell cow early on even if he does return by week 1. That makes Gerhart an absolute, must-have handcuff for AD owners.

Mike (Philly)

S H A D Y ! ! !

KC Joyner
  (4:30 PM)

He's got that rare blue ranking (one of only five RBs to be so rated).

David (RI)

biggest sleeper of the year is Isaac Redman...mark it down KC

KC Joyner
  (4:31 PM)

Got him ranked 18th on the RB cheat sheet. Got good handcuff value even if Mendenhall returns early.

Mark (Michigan)

Hey KC:Is rookie Ryan Broyles, a deep sleeper in a PPR or is he safe to wait & grab off waivers. To set the NCAA receiving records he did, when his wheel fully heals, I think the kid is gonna be a contender in the slot. What is your take on his fantasy value this year?

KC Joyner
  (4:32 PM)

He was a great WR at OU but his injury issue is such that he will almost certainly make to waiver pick status in most leagues. He's got a great future, just not sure his 2012 FFB season will amount to much.

David (RI)

Now you've got me nervous...I have Rice in a keeper league

KC Joyner
  (4:34 PM)

No real need to be nervous about him - Forte was a dominant fantasy RB without getting GL carries and Rice can do the same.

Andy (DC)

Regarding Aaron Rodgers, aren't concussions a serious concern for him? I was wondering if Tom Brady is a safer and more proven commodity as the #1 QB to go off the board.

KC Joyner
  (4:35 PM)

He's only missed two games in the past four seasons, so injuries can't be that big of a concern. Brady's age is also something of a concern, as is the state of his WR corps. Lloyd should be a great player but he still gives NE more WR question marks than GB.

Matt (MPLS)

I play in a 10 team league. I usually can find my RB 3,4,5 without having to grab handcuffs. Do you agree that in a smaller league, handcuffs are less necssary?

KC Joyner
  (4:37 PM)

Very true about handcuff players for smaller leagues. The talent pool is such that a starter-level backup can be found in those situations. The Peterson/Gerhart handcuff would still be suggested for 10-team leagues, but many other RB handcuffs would not be necessary in 10-team leagues.

Colby (Charlotte)

If both were available, would you go with Gronk or Jimmy Graham? Also, who would be a late round bargain TE that is maybe flying under the radar?

KC Joyner
  (4:38 PM)

Gronk is the highest rated TE in the draft guide, but it's really a 1a and 1b selection there. Late-round bargain TE - Brent Celek. He and Vick finally got on the same page last year and that could make him a true TE1 if things pan out.

Darth Ditka (Destin, Florida)

I'm going to win my league again by double-dipping points with Marshall and Cutler. Do you recommend that FF strategy with good combos or try to avoid? (I'm tired of winning my league, it gets boring winning all the time.)

KC Joyner
  (4:39 PM)

Sir, there will be no complaining about winning in this chat! Combo strategies can be an all or nothing proposition, so it is really only recommended for player combinations where there are few question marks.

John (Los Angeles)

Regarding last year's Hillis/Browns metrics ("Hillis was the problem for that ground game"), is Hillis likely to fit better into the Chiefs ground game, or should Chiefs fans be concerned about him?

KC Joyner
  (4:40 PM)

There should be some concern, but Hillis is once again being coached by Brian Daboll and that should go a long ways towards his getting back to his 2010 level.

Tim (El Cajon, CA)

If Arizona had a real good QB, would you have to come up with a new category for Fitz? Maybe platinum?

KC Joyner
  (4:41 PM)

Funny thing - I thought about trying to go with a gold or platinum color for the top rating but Excel's color scheme didn't have a good enough color match.

Kyle (Philly)

KC, do you really think that Demarco Murray is worth the 9th RB ranking in the book? Enough offense to go around in big D?

KC Joyner
  (4:42 PM)

Yep. Points should be plentiful in Dallas this year and the Cowboys are going to do all they can to give Murray as many of those points as possible.

Manny (Austin)

I know this is a 'can't go wrong' type of question. But in a crazy keeper scenario where i have Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy as keepers and the first pick overall and both A. Foster and A. Rodgers are available...would you take a 3rd RB? or go with Rodgers?

KC Joyner
  (4:43 PM)

That's a great situation to have. Rodgers would be the way to go.

Brian (Paxton, MA)

If I have a top 15 pick in the first round, should I draft Peterson (if he is stiil up there)?

KC Joyner
  (4:44 PM)

Peterson ranks 39th on the overall rankings sheet, so taking him that early shouldn't be necessary. If you have the 30th pick, that would be the time to take him.

Igor (NYC)

KC, which 3 player should I keep for next year: Britt (for 6th round), Antonio Brown (10th round), Torrey Smith (14th round), Demaryius Thomas (13th round). It's non ppr league with extra points for long td and 100 yard games.

KC Joyner
  (4:46 PM)

Brown's the easiest pick of that bunch. Smith would be second because he doesn't have the injury concerns Britt has. Britt/Thomas is a real toss up but as long as Britt's injury status is up in the air, Thomas is the pick.

charlie (DC)

KC, as a late round selection in a keeper league who do you prefer, Ryan Williams or Mikel Leshoure? Thx

KC Joyner
  (4:46 PM)

Williams. Arizona has some high goals for him.

Darth Ditka (Destin, Florida)

Dude...there are no question marks with Marshall and Cutler. Oh wait...our OC has never been an OC before. Inserting foot into mouth. I avoid players in new offenses for the first 10 picks. Works like a charm for me.

KC Joyner
  (4:47 PM)

Good advice from a man named Darth.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Oh great prognosticator, which of the Redskins Wrs do you see having the best season?

KC Joyner
  (4:48 PM)

Oh please don't say things like that - a simple "Hey, KC, whatcha think about this" works much better. Garcon rates highest on the TFS FDG WR cheat sheet.

Brian (Paxton, MA)

Is Vick really worth a 1st rround selection this year?

KC Joyner
  (4:49 PM)

He's best slotted as a round two player in most leagues (6 pts for TDs leagues being an exception).

Ryan (NYC)

KC any advice would be appreciated: 3 keeper (or less) league pper - foster (1), Johnson (2), Jennings (3) - should i keep foster and jennings and try to get a qb in the second round

KC Joyner
  (4:50 PM)

There are a lot of reasons to think Chris Johnson will have a great 2012 season. He'd be a much better keep than Jennings.

Studebaker (NJ)

Pick 2 to keep for this season: Nicks, Harvin, Holmes, Crabtree, Lloyd. Thanks, Scientist!

KC Joyner
  (4:51 PM)

Nicks is the hands down pick. Harvin may be the safer pick but Lloyd has fantastic upside, so he'd be the second choice.

Corey (Wisconsin)

KC who do u think will have a breakout season

KC Joyner
  (4:52 PM)

Wrote an Insider article about this very subject last week - it has five potential breakout FFB players - http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k12breakouts

Ellen (NYC)

Where's Jimmy? I need some SAAAAGE advice for the season!

KC Joyner
  (4:53 PM)

Last heard from Jimmy a few weeks back. He said something about Sage deserving another chance at a starting job (he'll be saying that when Sage is 45 years old). He'll be back around soon.

Robert (Richmond, CA (79 minute flight from Seattle))

I have (STARTING) Jay Cutler, Miles Austin, Roddy White, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, and Fred Jackson in the Flex, Kicker, and 4 IDPs... Do you see Jay Cutler being a sleeper Top 5 QBs with the additions of B. Marshall and M. Bush?

KC Joyner
  (4:54 PM)

A lot of that depends on the Forte situation. Cutler's still a good starter even if the Bears have to start Bush instead of Forte, but he's a better QB with Forte in the backfield.

Matt (LA)

Is Matt Cassel worth a late round pick as a back up QB given the talent he has round him?

KC Joyner
  (4:55 PM)

Sure is. He's still rated 20th on the TFS FDG QB charts and would have been rated higher if not for his vertical passing woes.

Jim Brown (Black Gunn)

I'm not sold on this Trent Richardson fellow. Too soft. Why am I wrong, KC, and would you dare tell me to my face?

KC Joyner
  (4:56 PM)

It would be an honor to meet Jim Brown, even if that honor came with the unfortunate responsibility of telling him he will be wrong about Richardson.

Brian (Paxton, MA)

Ryan Mathews over Marshwn Lynch?

KC Joyner
  (4:57 PM)

Yep. Mathews is on the verge of a great season.

Daniel Ramallo (Hillsborough, NJ)

KC, Joe flacco and Eli Manning. How does that sound for 2012 fantasy QB's? Hakeem Nicks, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin? Those are my favorites for WR. And last, who's the biggest breakout for D/ST, Bills, Browns, or Bengals?

KC Joyner
  (4:58 PM)

Those two would work as a fantasy QB1 & QB2. Like the wideouts. Would pick the Bengals D/ST out of that group.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Michael Turner and Frank Gore...stay away at all cost this year?

KC Joyner
  (4:58 PM)

Got them both rated in the top 12 RBs. Definitely not a stay away from case in either situation.

Andy (DC)

Should I be nervous about drafting Saints with Sean Peyton out?

KC Joyner
  (4:59 PM)

Not really. Talent trumps all and as long as NO has Brees in under center, that offense will still be highly productive.

KC Joyner
  (5:00 PM)

Well, it's been a really fun hour but it's time to hit the road. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The 2012 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now on sale at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!