Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Hey KC, how do you see Doug Martin doing in Tampa? Boise players never seem to translate into NFL stars. I've heard the ray rice comparisons because of Schainno, will he get that workload? Thanks.
The most troubling item about Martin was his relatively low production level last year. If he couldn't post dominant YPC totals in college, why does it stand to reason he'll post dominant YPC totals in the pros? Not saying he will be a bad player but there are red flags here.
Who are a few guys you think are flying under the radar for big years?
Noted one in the Eagles as NFC East favorites article - Jeremy Maclin. He posted some terrific totals last year despite having to bounce back from an illness. He's healthy now and due for a great season.
Is Aaron Rogers a #1 pick?
He is the top-rated player in the 2012 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide (more info about which can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com - only site plug of the chat).
Do you think there's any chance Leinart or Pryor could overtake Palmer as the starting QB in Oakland? Thanks.
Nope. Palmer had great numbers last year (he was a top 10 QB in many areas) and will be the starter for the Silver and Black this year.
What do you think of grabbing a top QB, top TE and then playing the numbers game with RBs and WRs? RBs and WRs have been such a crap shoot for the most part?
Agree on getting certain QBs first but have the top two tight ends rated below any WR1. There are just too many reasons to think Gronk and Graham will have a drop-off this year.
Expectations for Vick this year?
From a fantasy perspective, he's going to be a good QB but his lack of pass attempt upside (he's never had as many as 500 attempts in a season) keeps him from reaching the level of the top 5 QBs.
Keeper question. You can keep a player for an unlimited amount of years...keep 3 out of Cam Newton, Adrain Peterson, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, and Roddy White? I'm learning towards AP, Cam, and Charles...thanks for your thoughts
Agree on Newton and Peterson. Not so sold on Charles long-term, would rather have White.
K.C. Got some major decisions to make this year. What 3 should I keep in my PPR league? Rodgers, Stafford, Lesean Mccoy, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Ryan Mathews? Also should I try trading Rodgers in order to gain some draft picks and just roll with Stafford into the season? Thanks for all your help
That is an awesome lineup. Rodgers rates as the top QB on the TFS Draft Guide cheat sheets, so Stafford would be the one to trade. Keepers would be Rodgers, McCoy and Johnson.
What is your take on the Broncos running game, more specifically Ronnie Hillman? I know James had some monster years playing with Peyton.
The Broncos run game rated quite well in the TFS Draft Guide run blocking grades. The issues for their backfield include will Peyton be stat-happy and try to throw the ball as often as possible and will there be split carries in the backfield. That's what kept the Broncos RBs from being rated higher on the RB cheat sheets.
Hi KC, I play in a PPR and have made the finals two straight years team name The Untouchables. The only thing about the league I dont like is, there are no negative points for INT's for QB's. Which QB's would you rate higher if there are no negative points for INT's? Thanks!
If there are no penalties for ints, Eli and Cutler's value both move upward.
Is it crazy to take Mathews #2 overall in my redraft ppr league?
Mathews is right on the precipice of making it into blue-rated territory (blue rating being the true elites of fantasy football). I wouldn't go so far as to take him with the second overall pick but he's absolutely a first-round choice.
HI KC, I just did a mock draft and 5 of the first 9 picks were QB's (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford and Cam) It seems like this is the year of the elite QB, so who are you targeting if you cant get one of the top 5 (Vick, Romo, Eli, Rivers, Manning or Ryan)
6-8 on the TFS QB cheat sheet are Eli, Romo and Vick.
Please help me KC, I can keep Julio Jones for the 5th round pick OR Big Ben for my 9th Round pick (already keeping A. Foster). WHO DO I KEEP, and why???
PPR League, KC
Jones will likely be targeted at least 120 times this year and when that is combined with his dominant metrics, it makes his value quite difficult to replicate with other players (especially in a PPR environment). Ben's value is much easier to replace, so Jones is the player to keep.
Hey KC, I know its doubtful, but if McFadden could stay healthy could you see him as a top 5 back. Amazing talent, just so fragile. Thanks.
He's got the No. 13 ranking on the TFS Draft Guide RB cheat sheets and the only reason he didn't rank higher was the injury potential. He's definitely got top 5 RB potential.
Not to be disresepectfull, but please tell me you still wouldn't take Mike Wallace over Megatron in both real life football and fantasy? Anyways am I crazy to think Demarious Thomas will be a top 10 Fantasy WR this year possibly top 5 if Manning stays healthy?
Megatron rates over Wallace in fantasy football (the target volume differences between the Pittsburgh and Detroit offenses is huge). In real life, I would still take Wallace for certain types of offenses (he's a much better vertical/stretch vertical threat). Really concerned about Thomas in that Manning may be healthy enough to play but not have enough arm strength to get the top value out of Thomas.
Need Keeper help kind sir... $100 league, can keep two... Keeping shady @ 23, but torn on Megatron @25, RUN DMC @ 16, B Lloyd @ 3 or Mike Bush @ 1. Forte situation has me thinking. please help! Thanks!
The idea in drafting is to get as many players like Megatron as possible. Got to keep him.
In a 6 pt for all TD's league, how many QBs are 1st round worthy?
A strong case could be made for 8 and a solid case could be made for as many as 10 (in a 12 to 14 team first round).
Bounce back year for Chris Johnson?
Going to cover that very subject in an Insider article next week.
How do Donald Brown's metrics stack up? Any possibility that he ever lives up to his draft status?
His 7.4 GBYPA was solid and he should see about 200 rushes/targets. Got him rated 40th on the TFS RB cheat sheets.
Am I crazy for thinking Charles, Run DMC & Trent will be Top 10 RB's? Also, Murray, McGahee (outside Top 20)
That's not a crazy idea, especially in this season of the questionable RB prospect.
Keep 2 of 3: J. Nelson, J. Jones, A. Brown...ppr league
Tough call. Would have to say Nelson and Jones in that they play in higher passing volume offenses.
Kc would you feel comfortable with Bowe, Harvin, and Britt as your 3 starting wr. Worried about injuries with Britt and Harvin and Bowe not having a qb is a red flag I would think.
Talent-wise that group works but the injury risks would be a big headache. Would rather have at least one WR who could be counted on as an every-week starter.
What are your thoughts on Isaiah Pead as a sleeper? Seems like he may get some touches this year and be ready for a larger role next year.
Like his skill level a lot but Steven Jackson posted one of the highest GBYPA marks in the league last year. As long as Jackson is still hitting home runs, it's difficult to see Pead getting enough carries. Value him as a low RB4/high RB5.
Dynasty PPR league trade, AP & D Thomas (WR) for Wallace and Sproles, who wins
Wallace and Sproles - just not sure Peyton's arm strength will get back to the level that lets Thomas reach his potential.
Brees 5 yr 100 mil
$40 million in year one. Simply amazing. Give the guy credit - he worked that situation perfectly.
If I wait until the end of the draft and can only get St Louis or Dallas D, which one do you see being better?
Dallas. Their secondary upgrades will turn their biggest weakness into a strength.
Will Brian Quick start from day 1?? Really no other options in St Louis? Is he rosterable this year?
Got him listed as a low WR5 on the TFS Draft Guide WR cheat sheet. He's got an incredibly favorable schedule but also has a number of weaknesses that could prevent him from posting quality numbers early on.
Newton or Brady in a keeper, Newton was last round selection, Brady was 2nd round.
Depends on if the idea is short-term or long-term value. If the idea is long-term, Newton's the selection. If there is more short-term thinking, stick with Brady, as the addition of Brandon Lloyd is going to work wonders for the NE offense.
No negative points for INTs..sounds like a league where you want Vick too...
He'd definitely benefit from that environment.
with 292 yards and 4 tds in 2 playoff games, what do you see Vernon Davis doing this year? Thanks!!
Got Davis rated third on the TE cheat sheet. Only thing potentially holding him back is a Harbaugh offense that has a history of not using the TE often enough.
Do u think LGB will lose the starting job in Tampa?
Martin will very likely be the starter in TB, but Blount will still get more than a few carries.
Julio v Roddy, who ya got?
In fantasy, Julio, but they are ranked right next to each other on the TFS WR cheat sheets.
What kind of value do you see in LaFell? Future #1 or a complimentary player?
He had great metrics last year but still looks like a complementary player at this point.
10 team PPR: keep one: Marshawn Lynch for 8th rounder or Julio Jones for 7th Rounder. essentially...will Lynch produce: he has no other real RB competition for carries on his team, Petey wants to run the ball...BUT... less motivation because he just got paid. thanks TFS!!
Got to keep Jones. The PPR value and the consistent the motivation level (he's determined to be a dominant NFL WR) make all of the difference.
In a 6 pts for all TDs league where's a reasonable place to take RG3?
He might rate as a fifth round pick in that environment. Like RG3 a lot but Washington has a brutal schedule.
Who's the scariest 1st round pick being made regularly this year?
Would have to say MJD. He's had more carries than any other RB the past three years and his frame can't hold up to that level of punishment forever.
I am considering buying your guide. Why should I?
It's got over 400 pages of analysis and stats that cannot be found anywhere else.
Hey KC, Is there any chance that Flacco gets back on track this year and breaks into the top 10 QB Rankings?
Flacco fell short of that mark last year despite having nearly 200 vertical attempts (which is a very high total in that category). It's hard to see him making that jump this year.
KC, in a keeper league which of these four would you keep. Mendenhall, M Wallace, Welker or Jimmy Graham? Thanks.
Wallace. He's young, a dominant vertical threat and is in a contract year.
KC is your draft guide in any stores? or can I just buy it online? Thx!
It's an online item that can viewed as a PDF and in both iBook and Kindle formats.
KC, thanks for the info. Is Jonathan Baldwin primed for a breakout year?
As noted in the guide - Baldwin is an All-Pro caliber talent who hasn't done anything to change the perception that he just won't play up to his talent level. Can't get on board with his being a breakout player just yet.
Thoughts on Fred Davis this year? Potential top 5 te? Love his skill set.
Got him rated fifth on the TE cheat sheets. Agree on his skill set and got to like that he is working with RG3.
Is Joe Flacco a lost cause?
In fantasy football, Flacco isn't quite a lost cause but he's still not consistent enough to be considered an every week starter. Wouldn't mind having him as a backup in certain situations.
Well, it's been fun but got a couple of time sensitive items to get to, so need to cut out a few minutes early. Quick items of note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The 2012 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide (and in-season start-sit service) are available for purchase at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!