Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
Love your CJ2K love, but I'm stuck on historical precedent. Can you provide an RB comp who declined from an elite level of play and then bounced back because of schemes?
We're talking about a RB who, other than a few games last year, has been highly productive all of the time. He declined from that level because of schemes, so he's not a bounceback candidate because he'll be changing to a new scheme, but rather because of a return to a scheme he's proven he can dominate in.
Hey KC! Which of the Dolphins now nameless wide receivers do you think could have a fantasy-relevant season?
My kids get a kick out of going to the Wookie planet on Star Tours. Brian Hartline is the most fantasy relevant Miami WR, with Bess having some relevance in a PPR league.
Let's see if I remember how this works.
After the first 10 RBs or so, it looks like a fairly level playing field. What are your thoughts on Forte, S. Greene and BJGE? Thanks KC, next time I'll bring a pepperoni roll.
Don't know about everyone else, but it is about time for a mid afternoon snack and a pepperoni roll sounds like it would hit the spot. Got Forte as undervalued (see this week's TFS ESPN Insider RB article), Greene as a between the 20s guy with little GL value and BJGE on the borderline between a green and yellow-rating in the TFS draft guide.
Does Chris Johnson's abysmal performance in the first preseason game worry you at all?
Not in the least. Check out that RB article. It shows how his 2009 preseason was just as abysmal.
KC! Will there be an update to The Draft Guide or is the current version the final? Thanks! In The Football Scientist I trust (as I take CJ2K at 7).
Actually working on an update now and it will have a significant number of changes to the cheat sheets. Aiming to send it out either tonight or early tomorrow.
KC, Love all the work you do. Can you tell me what rookie 2nd or 3rd year reciever is ready for break out. And and can you talk a little bit about Jon Baldwin.
Got Torrey Smith as a 2nd year WR who could break out. Baldwin's got a ton of talent and looks like he is starting to finally utilize those skills but it's going to take more than a bit of positive preseason news before I'll sign off on his FFB prospects.
If you think my preseason game was bad check out the numbers from nearly every other top 15-20 rated player. Nobody had a good first preseason game outside DMC's three touches.
Love the Draft Kit. Whens the next update? 10 team PPR, keeper league, start 2RB, 3WR, no flex. Keeping Ray Rice and Roddy White, who's my last keeper? Nicks or A. Bradshaw?
Update will be on its way soon! Nicks is your next keeper, as Wilson is going to take a lot of Bradshaw's carries sooner rather than later.
I've been worried about getting reliable running backs as it seems there is not as much depth at the position compared with others. I want to reach a little in the second round to make sure I get at least one decent running back (from the 13th pick). Out of Demarco Murray, Lynch, Forte, or others, who would you prefer?
Forte would be the one to keep. He's a first-round caliber talent who for some reason is still being picked in the second round of most draft rooms.
Turn autoupdate on!
It says it is turned on. I'll click it off and back on again to see if that fixes the issue.
Love your draft guide. Does the rule of picking blues over greens always apply especially if your choice is between a green RB and a blue WR but you know by your next pick there wont be any green RBs left?
Glad you liked the guide! That's a tough call but blue rated players are extraordinarily hard to come by and should be valued as such. Take the blue WR and hope that a green RB is still there in the next round.
I noticed that most RB rankings have Blount pretty low. What's the RB situation in Tampa this year? I remember Blount being a pretty tough runner last year, but the team had concerns about his pass catching abilities. Is he still a valuable flex play?
Blount was on the most underrated RBs list because he actually played well at times last year and Martin isn't going to relegate him to the bench. Really like him as a RB3 but he'll be available much later than that in most draft rooms.
I've been thinking about taking Megatron with the #5 overall pick, but I saw a poster today that reminded me he's on the Madden cover. Should I just go Brady instead?
Megatron ranks 12th on the TFS overall cheat sheet and Brady ranks 8th, so Brady rates higher than him even without factoring in the Madden curse.
is AP worth a first round pick this year?
Not quite, as there are at least five RBs who will be rated in front of him in the updated TFS DG.
Would this be a good team?QB RomoRB CJRB APWR Julio JonesWR Jordy NelsonWR Percy Harvin WR Erik Decker
That's a great start for a team. Would possibly be a bit concerned about the RB depth.
quit hyping up my man titus young! the more you guys talk about him, the further hes going to skyrocket up the board. he was my super sleeper this year, by the time the season starts he wont be a sleeper anymore!
OK, we'll keep quiet about this. Got that everyone? Don't say anything about how great of a preseason Young is having and how he could win a starting job over Burleson.
Feels so good to back on here chatting FF! Where to you see McCoy rank in a PPR? And if Mike Vick gets hurt, would you see his value going up or down? I could actually see his production INCREASE if Vick goes down, since Shady will probably get more carries and maybe more dump off passes...?
Great to get so many of the long-time chatters back! A terrific way to start the season. Got McCoy ranked fifth in a PPR league. Really like his skills, am concerned that Philly is reportedly putting a ceiling on his workload.
What are your Lynch thoughts? Just can't get comfortable taking him ahead of Murray, Charles, etc
Not sold on Lynch, as the gut instinct is last year was a contract performance burst that won't be repeated in a non-contract year.
I'm hearing Greg Little as a potential sleeper at WR this season. Worth a shot any time before round 10?
Got him rated as a high-end WR5. Round 10 probably sounds about right for his selection.
Who would you prefer, the eagles or the seahawks defense?
They are rated No. 3 and No. 4 on the TFS draft guide D/ST cheat sheet. Seattle gets the higher spot because of the more favorable schedule.
Quick side note - more info about purchasing the draft guide and in-season start-sit service can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Only site plug of the chat.
Great chat as always KC. I'm on the Payton Hillis bandwagon big time this year. Seems like he gets overlooked, but is always productive. Given Charles' injury, he should stand to get a significant amount of carries. Would you be fine drafting him as your RB2?
Agree on Hillis being underrated, as he made the TFS undervalued RB list (see the fantasy section of ESPN.com for more details). Cant' say he should be taken as an RB2, though, as he should be available later than that in most draft rooms.
First time chatting but I read you all of the time your views are very on point. Q do you consider MCFadden a boarder line top 5 rb. Because I like him injuries and all of the question marks of D Murray & the good 1yr decent next of lynch with that terrible offense. Thanks
Thanks for joining the chat! DMC ranked 9th among RBs in the latest version of the DG and should move up to 8th in the newest version. The injury concerns are just enough to keep him out of the top 5 but they also potentially make him a great value pick.
How come you guys don't incorporate more auction draft strategy analysis or rank and analyze players base off auction? It seems to me that more and more leagues are moving to an auction style draft than the standard draft format.
Funny this should get mentioned, as it looks like the next ESPN experts draft will be an auction-style draft.
kc, i'm very interested in the draft guide. quick question: does it include player projections? thanks.
Thanks for the interest in the guide. It has tons of metrics, cheat sheets and over 400 pages of analysis. Can't say that it has specific stat projections, as that isn't a method I use for grading players.
I seem to be getting Malcolm Floyd late (8th - 10th) in most drafts I'm in. Am I nuts or is everyone else undervaluing him?!?
Got him rated No. 32 among WRs, so that does seem to be a value spot to acquire him.
No movie quote today? Must mean we're starting to really get serious about football! If we're to believe the news out of Tennessee, it looks like Jake Locker is getting the job. With good vibes about the Titans offense, where would you put him if he's the starter all year?
Hey, I'm always up for movie quotes. Just haven't had any posted. Related note - Avengers is one of the best movies ever. Locker will be a low QB2 if he wins that job. Like his upside but the Titans have a tough early season schedule.
Just pulled up the site to check out the draft kit - might be purchasing soon as I have a bunch of drafts coming up and respect your opinions. PPR league - keeping Murray in the 12th. Have the #1 overall pick. I know you love Rodgers, but do you take him over Rice? Thanks!
Thanks for the interest in the draft material! Regarding Rodgers, he has almost zero question marks and that is something that simply cannot be said about any other player (other than maybe Brady). He was the leading point scorer last year and has a great shot at repeating that achievement this year. He's the No. 1 pick in any format.
KC. Just wanted to Plug the guide. Been doing fantasy football for over 15 years and never saw such incredible material and analysis until I read your Draft Guide. Great stuff and keep up the good work.
Really appreciate that.
First 5 picks off the board are CJ, Foster, Rice, McCoy, and Rodgers -- whats your pick at 6? Especially if you didn't want to draft a QB in the 1st round
Forte. He's produced terrific numbers in the past and the Chicago offense should be even better this year (it might take a couple of weeks, but it should happen).
Hey KC, I've got 6 studs for my 5 position spots (2 RB, 2 WR, Flex) and I'm looking to upgrade my TE (Cook), who amongst McFadden, Forte, Nicks, Lloyd, Marshall, and Matthews should I trade?
It would be either Nicks or Marshall. The others have too much upside to trade away.
KC, since we are in the fantasy football chat mood, when is our ESPN league going to get running again?
Had planned on doing that in the past week or so but the schedule was unexpectedly hit with a large number of projects. Should be getting to that in the near future.
"Avengers" in XD was fantastic. Already counting down to the next one. KC, are either of the Carolina RBs worth grabbing in the first three rounds? Seems like J-Stew is going to be the feature back, if you can really call it that in Carolina.
Just can't get on board with either Carolina RB as an RB2 or RB3 in fantasy. And the great thing about Avengers is how well it was written. A ton of subtle items that made the movie a lot better.
Im better than Greg Jennings, fantasy or not yo. Got it?
Not on the TFS WR draft board you aren't. Jennings ranks No. 5, Marshall No. 10.
Loved Avengers! Particularly when Hulk beat Loki like a rug. Rodgers is the #1 rated player a lot of places, but doesn't he have concerns about picking up another concussion, especially when he's basically the Packers' most effective runner? I'd still draft him in the 1st, but I'd close my eyes when he takes off...
My wife and kids all got a huge kick out of seeing Loki get his tail kicked. That's true about Rodgers and the concussion, but every player has some kind of injury concern and he does get good protection.
Seems like the 2nd round is the make or break round this year? Agree?
That's a great insight. First round players used to be the make or break players but this year the second round players can really hurt or help a team.
I have a question for J.B..........Marshall or Jennings?
J.B., some chatter posted this, so the ball is in your court.
Can you talk about Michael Turner. Will he move at all in the updated Draft Guide? Figuring I draft CJ2K in the first round, is Turner worthy of a mid-second round pick? [Avengers was far superior to Dark Knight Rises]Thanks.
Actually haven't seen Dark Knight (I'm a big Frank Miller fan and just can't get over the idea of another Dark Knight series). Turner doesn't have much room to move up, as he was No. 8 among RBs before. He'll probably move to the No. 7 RB spot but the other RBs are all blue-rated and he's just not quite up to a blue-rated level.
Is Brandon Marshall better than Greg Jennings in real life?
Since it's a FFB chat, I think the chatter was asking about it from that perspective.
If you loved the writing on Avengers make sure out check out Firefly/Serenity if you haven't yet. Many subtleties that are similar. Where does SF sit for offense with a pretty deep and impressing receiving corps, and noodle armed QB? Any reports on Smith gaining arm strength in the off season?
I'll ask Mrs. Scientist to put that on the potential movie watch list. Smith has been on the precipice of top 10 vertical numbers in the past so arm strength won't keep him from reaching that level this year. Like a lot about the SF offense and think most everyone on that group will be better fantasy players than they were last year.
thoughts on jordy nelson? i know the td's are sustainable, but do you think he gets more rec's?
Every part of his metric analysis had terrific totals, so I'm on board with Nelson as top WR. He'll get a few more receptions but may not see a huge increase because of the nature of that offense.
KC, keeper/dynasty league here...better future, Dez or A. Johnson...gotta drop one of them.
Tough call. Johnson's age and injury history probably put him on the drop list in this case.
I know neither of these guys is a big name but would you rather have Brian Quick or Brian Hartline?
Hartline. Quick should be a solid WR in the future but Hartline is a solid WR today.
Pick 2 of these 3 in a PPR league: Reggie Bush, BenJarvus, and Doug Martin. Also, do you prefer a RB or a WR at the flex spot? Brandon Marshall or Nicks in a PPR league?
Please don't post questions dozens of times. They clog up the chat queue and in most cases are ignored because of that. Bush and BJGE, WR (in PPR) and Nicks.
Would you take Stafford late in the first round of a 12 team league or pass on him and wait for a later QB like Peyton Manning or Matty Ryan?
Stafford has that rare blue rating and that makes him someone who should not be passed up unless it is for another blue rated player.
Don't put Serenity (the movie) on your watch list. Put Firefly (the miniseries) on your list. The miniseries is what built the rabid fan base. Most of those fans think the movie sucked.
Point noted. I'll pass that along to Mrs. Scientist and let her make the call (always like her to be on board with whatever movies we end up watching).
McFadden has to be the highest risk vs reward player this year, agree? The highest pick you would take him is....
Got him rated No. 16 on the latest cheat sheet, so that's a good barometer for risk/reward payoff.
KC - where would sproles be ranked in a PPR league that also rewarded kick/punt return yardage? Thanks
Haven't looked at that format, but since Sproles rates as the No. 7 RB in the PPR charts, it would stand to reason that he'd be the top player on that list if return yards were included.
"We have a Hulk." That's what I'll tell my league-mates after I steal ____ in the draft?
Like it! Matt Schaub or Brandon Lloyd. Both of them have monster fantasy point ceilings.
Has the hate for Andre Johnson gone too far? In a 12 team league I was able to draft Jennings, Wallace, and have AJ as my 3 WR. I ahve a few other bench options but felt the AJ and Wallace risks were well worth it where they fell to,
It may have gone too far in some rankings but I've got AJ ranked No. 6 on the most recent WR cheat sheets. To get him as a WR3 is a huge boon for your club.
KC, I'm in a brand new fantasy league. It's a 10 team league, 2 QB's start and we can keep 3 players, but no one drafted in the first 2 rounds. Given these circumstances, when would you be comfortable drafting a guy like RG3 or Luck?
That is a very interesting rule, as it keeps the keeper value but still makes sure the upper end of the draft is interesting. In that format, Luck or RG3 would probably have to be taken in round 6 or so (QBs fly off the board in that format).
Do I keep Dez Bryant for $8 or Antonio Brown for $2?
Brown. Got him rated higher overall and the lower price just makes him an even better pick.
Greetings KC, Why the man crush on Rogers? With so few stud rb's this year, why didn't you grab one of them in recent mock and maybe Rivers etc down the road. I know you say he is the safest but all your eggs in one basket. Also what's your thoughts on Buffalo D, they seem to have some easy matchups?
Hello again, Kmac! The push for Rodgers is because too many No. 1 overall picks of late simply haven't panned out as well as their No. 1 draft slot says they should have. Rodgers is someone who is almost certain to give No. 1 overall value and therefore not make that pick a somewhat overvalued one. Like Buffalo's D in many ways but the Bills offense isn't going to try for low scoring games. See lots of shootouts in the Bills future.
If I just purchased the Draft Guide, is it safe to assume I won't receive my digital copy until after you send out the latest update? And if I do receive it before, should I just wait to print it until the update comes out? Thanks!
The latest version will be sent out after the chat. Would wait until the updated version comes out before printing it, though, as the update will be over within the next 24 hours.
With the new knee injury, how early can I take my boy Richardson for a newly starting up keeper league?
He was ranked 18th on the last TFS overall draft board and might end up moving down into the early 20s in this next update. Got to think of him as a late 2nd/early 3rd round candidate.
Thanks for taking the time to answer all of our questions. Would you think about taking Vick 3/4 round then maybe take a guy like Carson Palmer later? Vick can be the #1 player in fantasy and a guy like Palmer can be a sneaky good top-10 play.
The QB position is so deep this year that making a move like that is a possibility that it might not have been in other seasons.
Hey KC! Whats your thoughts on WR, Josh Gordon of Cleveland in dynasty leagues? Thanks!
A bit mixed on Gordon. Like the chances of Richardson/Weeden turning this offense around but the team is also likely to go through some big management changes with the ownership change. Not sure how that will impact their offensive scheme and that keeps Gordon off of the dynasty WR radar.
Do you think Reggie Wayne is worth a late round value pick or is he completely over the hill? Luck looked pretty good! (Also I much prefer x-men first class over avengers, avengers was borderline unreasonable with things like a flying aircraft carrier).
Wayne played quite well late last year with less than acceptable quarterback play, so his chances of playing well this year are more than good. And of course Avengers was unreasonable - these movies do ask for a suspension of disbelief!
Well, it's been a fun hour but the draft guide update calls, so it's time to hit the road. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. More info about the draft guide and start-sit material can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Thanks for the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!