In the room the women come and goTalking of F.P. Santangelo
(An old one, but I'm reusing it in honor of this week's Eat a Peach Day)
re: your piece on miguel sano and defense....is your take just that he's a kid with growing to do? or do you see a potential attitude problem?
I think he prefers hitting to focusing on defense, and it wouldn't surprise me if years of hearing that he's going to move off of third have affected his interest level in working on his glove. He's going to mash wherever he plays.
What should I think of Darian Ruf? Is he a legitimate prospect?
No, he's not. He's an older guy beating up on younger competition.
Has Shelby Miller's run in the last couple of months salvaged his top 10 status in your eyes?
It's not his performance per se, but the return of his old mechanics and, as a result, his old velocity. I think he has to be in their rotation next April if he's not traded.
There doesnt seem to be much prospect buzz on Mat Skole. I know contact rate is an issue- prospect at all for you?
Tried Oklahoma Joe's in KC last week, thanks for the review.Now that Westbrook will be back next season, what do you expect the Cardinals' rotation will look like by the end of 2013?
I interpreted that extension as a sign that the Cardinals don't expect to get much out of Carpenter next year.
Do you think the A's should recall Dan Straily with news of Colon being suspended? He looked pretty good in 2 of his 3 starts for the A's. Also, do you think Straily makes the opening day rotation for the A's in 2013? Thank you
They can't recall him until ten days after he was optioned unless there's another injury. If Tyson Ross grabs his shoulder in today's start, then they can bring Straily back.
Hey Keith, Was wondering where you would rank Oscar Taveras among prospects? Is he the favorite to be the #1 prospect in all of baseball next year? Thanks
A lot of these questions were already answered last month when I updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the game: http://klaw.me/Nk87iz
Can the Phillies compete in 2013 with a young, hard-throwing bullpen of Diekman, DeFratus and Aumont to set up Lindblom and Papelbon?
I don't think the bullpen is the determining factor for the Phillies' potential in 2013, but I also don't think Aumont or Lindblom is all that good.
What happened to J Turners velocity? I thought he used to throw in the mid to upper 90's.
I saw him yesterday, and went up the line for an inning to watch him from the side. I want to watch the video again, but after a first look this morning - comparing to video I have of him from three years ago - his arm is WAY slower now, even though the delivery is pretty similar.
Any chance the Brewers get rid of Bruce Seid and hire a new scouting director
I have heard this rumor several times in the last few weeks, with former AZ scouting director (and former Milwaukee scout) Tom Allison as a possible replacement. I never want to see anyone fired, so please don't interpret this as an endorsement of such a move - I'm just passing it along as a rumor with some currency in the industry right now. I do think the success of so many of Allison's picks with Arizona (Parker, Miley, Goldschmidt, even lesser guys like Elmore and Collmenter) should have his name in consideration for open SD jobs this winter.
Keith, Derek Jeter has a solid batting average, so clearly he's on the juice, right? I mean, even if he isn't, we have to ask the question, right? Same goes for Mike Trout, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Felix Hernandez and everyone else who I deem worthy of suspicion!
The "we have to ask the question" argument came up in Toronto with Jose Bautista as well. I'm not in favor of asking this question at all, because once asked, it tends to stick to the player like an incurable infection. It's comparable to the "when did you stop beating your wife?" question - the target can never answer in a satisfactory way.
How did Tyler Skaggs look yesterday afternoon? Any idea if he's staying in the rotation (bye bye Joe Saunders) or going to the pen?
He looked really good - curveball was sharp and he threw it for strikes, velocity was good, only threw a couple of changeups but turned it over well with good arm speed. Ump refused to give him in the inside corner to righties, which led to a couple of walks. Overall very impressive, definitely worthy of a rotation spot going forward if one becomes available.
Impressed with Wacha so far?
In a previous chat you brushed off the notion that Cody Asche was a legitimate prospect. What about him leads to that assessment?
Primarily his swing, which doesn't project for any power because he really doesn't load, and his poor defense. He's hit a handful of homers in AA, but Reading's a fairly homer-friendly park, and so is Harrisburg where he hit two the other day.
Curious about your take on Moises Sierra. 4th OF?
Keith, Trayce Thompson has shown the raw power translating to games this year. Can he make enough contact to be a Drew Stubbs like player, or is he not good enough on defense to have that type of value?
He's an excellent defender in center - that's why he's still a prospect even with the insane strikeout rates. I heard he might be in Fall League, which will be great - he's among the most interesting prospects in the game.
I was looking at the box score from the Boise Hawks game the other night (you can't scout one, I know), but I noticed Vogelbach made an error and it was his first of the year. So I guess he isn't just kicking the ball all over the infield at least. Is it just his utter lack of range of any kind that makes him a DH only for you? What are the odds he can play a passable 1B in the future?
Another scout tagged his range as "one step and a dive." That might be generous - "one step and a fall" feels more accurate to me.
Have you ever weighed in on your opinion of the expected Strasburg shutdown?
Let's say Chris Sale has about the same year next year that he has this year and then blows out his arm in spring training 2014. Is that more valuable then keeping him as a reliever and hoping he doesn't get hurt? Enjoy your work, thanks.
Yes, I think that's more valuable, both in a statistical (WAR) sense, and in a real-baseball sense since starters are much harder to come by than relievers - and the White Sox do seem to have a middle-reliever tree on their farm.
Not excited about the Padres losing Jaron Madison. Any idea how they might replace him?
I've heard they're considering internal candidates (including cross-checker Billy Gasparino, with whom I worked in Toronto and tagged back in 2005 as a future scouting director) and at least two candidates that VP Chad MacDonald worked with in New York. I don't know if there are others.
You are such a East coast liberal, you are destroying Amrica.
The East Coast of Arizona? Although I suppose if we keep warming the planet Phoenix will be on a coast soon enough.
Back to Sale - last night on ESPN the announcers said his sidearm delivery makes him "less prone to injuries." Is there any data to back that up at all?
No, and I think his arm action puts him at higher risk of injury than most pitchers regardless of slot.
Sorry if you covered this before, but the O's minor league pitching coordinator said they dont like young pitchers (such as Bundy) throwing a cut fastball because it diminished fastball velocity. Have you ever heard this loss of velocity theory before?
Yes, but the evidence behind it is anecdotal at best.
I am noticing ESPN putting more and more stories on their "Insider", such as your future power rankings. Not happy. Stop it. Not paying, never will.
OK. Make sure you take that same attitude to your doctor, and your local supermarket, and everywhere else where you receive a product or a service you value.
Which would you prefer a little leaguer to learn: a breaking pitch or fastball movement?
Neither - a changeup. Little leaguers shouldn't be throwing breaking balls.
Are there any Tim Raines players in the majors today. That is to say: clear HOF credentials who will have a hard time getting in because the electors keep voting for people like Jim Rice, Jack Morris, & Lee Smith?
Any good food recommendations for the Salt Lake City area?
I haven't been in years, but my former colleague Jason "Fifty Shades of" Grey raves about Red Iguana. Two locations, apparently number 2 is easier to get into.
Loyal Insider here, pleased with what I'm paying for. Would appreciate it if you'd help settle a bet: Felix and Seager for J. Upton, who wins?
Why would the Mariners do that?
Is Casey Kelly on pace to make a 2013 arrival in SD?
I think so.
Ready to admit you were wrong about Paul Goldschmidt?
No, because I wasn't. You would think platoon split data required a FOIA request for people to get it.
When you say you're not impressed with Wacha, you're not saying you're unimpressed, correct? Just that there's nothing he's done that should change our opinion based on a few short outings, right?
He's facing six to ten batters per start. There's absolutely nothing useful we can draw from that data, since he's a starter with experience in one of the best Division 1 conferences. "Impressed by So-and-so?" questions are generally useless anyway, but asking me if I'm impressed by a player who's being used in a way that is practically designed to produce inflated numbers is particularly so.
Still take Belt over Goldschmidt?
I would. The Diamondbacks have done a great job maximizing Goldschmidt's strengths - and just leaving him alone and letting him play.
Nice call on Little League pitchers, even though I work with them on locating the fastball before changeups. Aside from owner or cldeanup hitter, what would be your dream job in MLB?
I could never imagine myself as a cleanup hitter - when you're slight of build it's hard to conceive of yourself with a cleanup hitter's frame. Not that I have ever thought of myself as a possible player, but most players who have builds similar to mine are relievers. I suppose that would allow me to walk out to Crystal Method's "Name of the Game," which should be some closer's intro music ("get 'em up in the back row!"), so I'll go with that. Now I just need to work on my cutter.
Miguel Cabrera now has 105 RBI. Still think he's not Top 5 in MVP?
You say these two things as if the first should have any bearing on the second. Silly child.
I like the WAR stat, but the defensive metrics involved seem to be subject to debate. Perhaps until they are improved, would you use oWAR as a primary basis to determine value for something like MVP?
I try to look at MVP candidates' stats using a variety of metrics, including wOBA and its derivatives for a look at offensive value without defense. I just don't feel like I can lean on defensive metrics for more than direction - they are not reliable enough to make them the final justification for a ballot.
hey keith, thanks for chatting. have you had a chance to see addison russell yet? can he stay at shortshop? also, what are your thoughts on the a's 1st round supplemental pick david robertson? what kind of hitting upside does he have?
Saw both this summer and both as amateurs, big fan of both. I do think Russell stays at short. Robertson ends up at third. Russell's the big impact bat, while Robertson is more of a contact/average guy but just with great feel for hitting.
When you you find out what awards ballot you have?
I already did. NL ROY.
Just noticed Miggy left today's game early. What happened?
He saw I didn't rank him top 5 in the AL MVP race and left the game with hurt feelings.
What are your thoughts on the future of Kris Medlen? Do you think the league will catch up with him soon, and his future is ultimately in the bullpen? Or can he be a valuable middle of the rotation starter?
Mid-rotation starter. I'm in.
Nick Ahmed? Legit SS prospect?
Not a shortstop.
Keith, I believe you mentioned Tony Cingrani as the Reds sleeper prospect before the year and in the Future Rankings that came out today. I admit I have only seen his numbers, which are outstanding, but has he developed his other pitches enough? What do you think his upside is?
No, he's primarily a one-pitch guy, and might still be just a reliever - but I'd let him continue to start until he shows he can't.
I heard the cubs let several professional and amateur scouts go. Is this common? Was this Theo and crew putting their guys in place?
This is the time of year for those moves, and I think it's largely about front offices getting their own guys.
Out of all the young high upside arms the Astros have drafted/traded for in recent years, which one do you like the most? Foltynewicz, Velazquez, Houser, McCullers, Comer, and Musgrove?
Folty and McCullers have the most upside. Comer and Musgrove have both gone backwards since they were drafted.
If i remember correctly, Gary Brown was the only Giants prospect in the top 100... is there anyone else in the system that might break through or is our system still a hopeless black hole?
Could see Crick and/or Blackburn on there.
Are you excited to see On The Road as a movie?
I can't imagine they'll do it justice.
Surprised by Lewis Brinson's line?
A little but they've tweaked his swing since signing him too. Plus it's the AZL, I don't like reading much into any stats out here.
Have you ever tried blood sausage? Just can't get past the impression I get when I hear the name. Is it...what's the word...organ-y?
I've had black pudding, which is one kind of blood sausage, and loved it. It's not 'organ-y.'
Years ago I asked why Andre Dawson shouldn't go in the HOF in your opinion despite his numbers and defense in CF and you suggested Beltre might be undervalued later on ..... They have similar projections in their numbers. Dawson: 1373 runs, 2774 Hits, 438 HR, 1591 RBI, 589 BB, 1509 SO, 314 SB, 110 CS, .279 AVG, .323 OBP and .805 OPS Beltre: 1064 Runs, 2175 Hits, 332 HR, 1186 RBI, 570 BB, 115 SB, 1278 SO, 115 SB, 40 CS, .278 AVG, .330 OBP and .800 OPS They seem to be comparable numbers when it's all said and done for Beltre .... What am I missing? I've heard Dawson played good defense at a prime position.
The gap in their defensive values is enormous.
What are your thoughts on Scott Diamond? If Trout wasn't such a showoff, he'd be in the ROY discussion. Can he have long term success as a #3 type starter who induces a lot of ground balls?
Fifth starter, if that.
I hate cauliflower but get it a lot in my produce co-op. What can I do to it to make it taste good?
Blanch until just barely tender, then dust it with smoked paprika and a little flour (or brown rice flour or chickpea flour) and deep fry it till golden brown. Or roast it at high temp until it browns. There's some sugar in there and you need to bring it out.
making dried cherry almond scones, can I substitute fresh cherries for dried?
You're going to get a lot of extra moisture from them as they bake.
Am I up mid-season in 2013 or more likely a sept. callup or 2014 player to watch out for?
I love Bogaerts but I think the hype on him - particularly in terms of how fast he's going to get to the majors - is too much. I think he ends up at third but there is some sentiment he could stay at short at least a few years; he's a good athlete and while he's going to get bigger he's not huge yet.
How'd that salmon turn out the other night?
I'm about to smoke it - got a Weber kettle with fire bricks sequestering the coals and hickory chips (soaked). I'll be right back.
This is not a "legitimate" chat unless auto-update is on.
So on Twitter I passed along my wife's wisecrack on the Todd Akin situation and one (whiny) follower complained I was "doing politics" and unfollowed me. (Boo hoo.) I don't see that as a question of politics, but a question of science, and perhaps question of our attitudes towards victims of sexual assault. If that's "politics," I guess everything is.
What can you do to neutralize the overwhelming flavor of asparagus?
Toss with olive oil, salt, and pepper, and roast at 500 degrees until brown, or grill over direct heat until the same. Just don't let it wilt. I also think it works great with a little tarragon butter.
Do you eat peaches?
I could eat a peach for hours.
Keith, I've read a lot of good things about Jose Fernandez in the Miami organization. Baseball America said he has the ceiling of a true #1 ace. Do you see that same potential?
I see that potential, but I think he has a lot of development ahead of him to get there, especially in terms of his third pitch.
do you think what baltimore is doing is sustainable? like beyond this year?
No. If Baltimore and/or Pittsburgh miss the playoffs, this may end up a lost opportunity for both clubs - in years where they might have been able to add young talent through selling (e.g., Hanrahan and Johnson), they chose not to while pursuing that extra wild card spot.
Have your feelings about Stefan Romero changed since last season?
If he can actually play 2b, then yes, but I doubt he can and I don't think that bat profiles well at his old position of 1b.
Better 3B prospect...cody asche or maikel franko? Either one a legit MLB everyday guy?
I know Franco's riskier, but I'd much rather bet on him becoming an average or better big league 3b than Asche.
Marcus Stroman. September Call up? Or 2013 debut
I say call him up next week.
Did the Jays bring Gose up WAY too early? He looks completely overmatched at the plate. I'm not sure i've seen a player look so overmatched. Has this stunted his growth, or do you think it's good to let him fail at the big stage, because he's truly failing....
I don't know about stunting his growth but I didn't think he was ready to hit in the majors - a lot of fans pointed to his stat line in Vegas, but that's a great hitter's park (and I did say so at the time) that I think obscures a lot of hitters' flaws.
SSS but are you surprised at the speed Soler is flashing? Can he be a 20 SB guy in MLB or will he grow out of it?
Nah, he's a good athlete. Not a burner, not a 40-50 SB guy, but could steal 20.
When do the AFL rosters come out?
Partial rosters should come out any day now, I think. I've heard rumors on possible names but those are always subject to change.
Are you ever wrong? Name a couple guys you were way off on that ended up having the most success in the majors.
No, never wrong, not once in my entire life.
Hi Klaw. I know you love Gatsby and Tender is the Night, but have you read and what's your opiniong of This Side of Paradise and the Beautiful and Damned? Thanks.
TSOP felt like a first novel - uneven, too personal, with long nonliterary digressions that showed FSF's youth at the time. Beautiful and Damned is much stronger but I had a hard time getting through the cruelty shown by the central characters toward each other.
Have you seen Nomar Mazara? If so, how did he look?
Yes. Good bat speed. Decent approach. Prefer his skill set to Guzman's.
From what you saw last night, can Elmore or Wheeler stay in the bigs?
Stay, sure. Contribute? Wheeler really can't play third, and I don't see where he fits otherwise.
Domingo Tapia gave up his first HR of the entire year last night.... an inside-the parker on a ball wedged under the side fencing. This seems impressive to me, no?
Given that he actually sinks the ball and gets grounders, yes. Lot of good prospects don't give up HR because they overpower hitters, but Tapia actually has the ability to keep the ball in the park long-term.
Are there any rumors as to which GM's will be on the hotseat this offseason?
Just chatter. I've heard Colorado, but perhaps their recent shuffle was all they'll do. I've also heard talk of some kind of shakeup in Cleveland, but not whether that would extend to Antonetti.
Again, not offering an opinion on whether such moves or warranted.
Any short story writers you particularly enjoy reading Klaw? Flannery O'Connor doesn't count.
Fitzgerald is the master. I greatly prefer novels to short stories.
Glad you enjoyed Purple Pig, one of my favorites. What were your thoughts on Wrigley Field last week? Knock the whole thing down, or just major remodeling ?
Phenomenal food there at PP. Wrigley ... I'm not wild about it. Yeah, I get the history there and at Fenway, but they're pretty uncomfortable places to watch games.
Another SSS, but can Brett Jackson do enough to be a star player in the majors or is he likely going to be a lineup filler at best?
I think his ceiling is average regular, and after this year I'm inclined to guess his actual outcome will be extra outfielder.
Is Joey Gallo a top 5 prospect in TX's system?
I think Brett Jackson struck out 3 times during this chat.
Well then I'd better wrap it up before he gets the sombrero. Thanks for all the questions - I'll be back next week.