Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
Sorry for the delayed beginning - had a call that went a bit later than expected.
Saw you took Jared Cook in the twitter mock draft. Was Fred Davis still on the board? If so, why Cook since you have Davis rated higher in your draft guide. Thanks!
Good eye on that one! Davis is rated higher on the TFS draft guide TE cheat sheet but for this particular league, I thought it was necessary to play for upside at TE. Got a bit of risk at RB and may have to make up for it elsewhere.
Greetings KC, FF is in the air. Will Jordy Nelson do the same damage with those bomd tds or was it because Jennings was out?Also, your so high on Forte it seems along with Johnson (it seems like he regressed to his old ways in preseason). If Mcfadded stays healthy for 12 games, won't he be better than those 2?Thanks
FFB right now and college football tonight - life is good! The gut instinct is that Nelson will be even more integrated into the vertical pass game this year. Not worried about Johnson's preseason, as his 2009 preseason was just as bad and all turned out well that year. DMC could be as good as those two if he plays a full season but won't match their numbers if he again missed a lot of time.
KC, love the stuff. Have the 3rd overall pick, and I'm really torn between Brady and McCoy, depending who falls to me. Is the discrepancy between the RBs at the end of the 2nd round greater than that of the QBs taken in the same area?
Spot on analysis of the RBs - the drop-off is large enough that McCoy should be taken higher.
Are you getting worried about MJD yet?
He was dropped from a blue rating to a green rating in the last cheat sheet update (blue being the highest rating, green the second highest), so there is worry here.
Quick note - I'll be working on the next draft guide update this evening. FFB & CFB all at the same time - a very good way to spend an evening!
Hey KC, which defense would you draft out of Houston, San Fran and Seattle?
The TFS draft guide cheat sheets have SF rated first among D/STs, so they would be the choice.
Related note - more info about the TFS draft guide can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Only site plug of the chat.
Buffalo D top 10?
Got them ranked 14th, but they do have top 10 potential.
KC, with all these people freaking out and taking a TE or QB so early, I happily nabbed 4 rb's to start my team. I wound up with Rice, Forte, Charles and Mathews (and was still able to get Romo as my QB). Why is everyone so bent on taking a non RB so early?
Because all of the running backs have some sort of question mark. You are right in that it is being a bit blown out of proportion but this year does have more RB issues than most other years.
KC, the draft guide is awesome! Huge help on draft day. In a 12 team PPR auction league I wound up with Brees, Rice, Steven Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Miles Austin, Brandon Lloyd, Amendola, Seahawks and Jets D. Nice haul?
Thanks! LIke that team a ton. Really like Lloyd as the No. 3 WR - he's got WR1 potential.
Mike Wallace is my 2nd WR. Should I be concerned or did get a late steal?
Got Wallace rated 8th among WRs, so that is a steal.
Unique draft strategy: Forte is my #1 rb....and I drafted Wilson, Spiller, and Hillis to match up as my #2...also thinking injury could easily hit their starters. I preferred this to drafting retreads like Gore and McGahee....am i insane?
Is there a doctor in the house? Regarding the strategy, your team will be the equivalent of the Washington Redskins backfield - great production if the right start choice is made, potential goose eggs if not.
Does Locker have Top 10 potential? I see a big vertical game, a lot of big plays, and more rush yrds/td's than most starting QBs.
Can't quite make that jump in that the QB position is chock full of high scoring players this year. Plus, the Britt situation could mean Locker will be without his top vertical threat for a time.
10 team league---- is the 11th pick too much risk to take MJD?
I've seen MJD last longer than that in leagues, so it is probably too early to make that selection.
6th pick in a ten team draft.Would you go best player and if so ist Calvin Johnson, Brees, or Mcfadden the best pick? Thanks for answering.
Assuming standard scoring, Brees would be the pick. If all plays out well, you might still get another blue-rated player in round two (one of the benefits of having a mid-range 1st round pick this year).
Will the Law Firm be a consistent Flex play this year?
Yep. He'll probably rack up low-range double-digit touchdowns.
What are your thoughts on Sidney Rice now that Russell Wilson has been named the starter in Seattle? Word is that Rice is now healthy and rearing to go...
Rice's constant injury issues are still a big concern. And let's not get oversold on Wilson. In 2010, when he played with a so-so NC State squad, he was a good but not great QB. Last year's performance had as much to do with being on a great Wisconsin offense and playing bad Big Ten defenses as it did anything else.
How much do you avoid 2 WR's from the same team if you were faced with Cruz available in the 5th round after you had taken Nicks in the 4th? Cruz was BPA (DBowe, JStew were other BPA's) First 3 picks were ARod, JCharles, JGraham and lets just say a couple brewing companies improved their profit margins thanks to my friends at this draft party!
Brewing companies do make a lot of money off fantasy owners this time of year. Cruz easily rates over those other two so no worries about doubling up with NYG WRs.
Does the guide offer PPR rankings? Is the maturation between the rookie year to the second year large enough for an RB to think that Jacquizz Rodgers will be a significant factor in Atlanta's offense?
It sure does. Rodgers will be more involved in this offense because Atlanta is going to run the ball more but it really boils down to can he rack up 150 rushes/targets? That might be a stretch for him and that keeps his FFB value questionable.
Just read your contribution to ESPN the magazine's fantasy preview...so if targets aren't a good indicator of success for WRs, what is?
YPA, vertical YPA, success percentage. Getting a lot of targets is a plus but it has to be combined with some other favorable metric.
If past injuries were not factored into the rankings, would DMC be a Blue rated player? I am deciding between him and CJ2K at 7.
Have been seeing that question a lot. DMC would be a blue-rated player if not for the injury issues. As it is, he ranked 15th overall in the last cheat sheet update and will probably move to 13th overall in this one (thus making him the highest rated green-rated player).
auction ceilings on mjd? ap? charles? thanks!
Rough estimate - MJD $38, AP $40, Charles $32. MJD's value of course increases if the holdout ends and AP's bid value could be arguably higher. Generally like to keep a ceiling on bids and build a strong top to bottom roster.
In a 14 team PPR I have Stafford, Welker, Wallace, Harvin, Benson, Hillis, and Redman. Will my WR's and QB be enough to make up for my weak RB's?
Probably, but you'll want to consider backup plans for Redman. Don't like his situation at all.
Am I nuts for rolling with RG3/Locker QB duo? I love Griffin, but I may have gone too far. I can trade Jonathan Stewart for Cutler if I want to. Thoughts?
Depending on the rest of the roster, that would be a trade to make. RG3 and Locker both have FFB value but it's a huge risk to have them as the starters.
How do you feel about Roddy White versus Julio Jones? White is the safer pick but Jones has the higher ceiling? Thanks!
White ranks one slot higher than Jones on the WR cheat sheets but Jones does have a higher upside. To put it another way - in most draft rooms, White will cost more than Jones, so Jones is usually the player to target out of those two.
Hans, BOOBY, I'm your white knight!After Foster and Rice are gone, should I go for Shady, or pick Brady/Rogers/Mega?
Hans, put the gun away, this is radio not television. Poor Harry, he was the sacrificial lamb of that film and all he wanted was a fun weekend with someone else's wife. Got Rodgers rated 1st and CJ2K second overall, so one of those would be the pick to make.
Can Matt Schaub finish in the top 10 this year at QB?
Absolutely. Actually have him ranked 10th among QBs.
What up KC just had my 12 team PPR draft last night and might have to change my team name to Team Scientist after my picks. I got CJ2k at 10 and Cam Newton with my second pick. Then I also got F Jax and Harvin Maclin and LLoyd. Also have Hillis and Spiller as backups. I have to chose between LLoyd and Maclin for my last starter, do I go with the hot player, or do you prefer LLoyd or Maclin?
Team Scientist - that has a nice ring to it! Lloyd is the preference of the two, although both should have fantastic seasons. That is a very good squad you built there!
Who's a greater "stash on your bench" RB...Alfred Morris (WAS) or Mikel Leshoure...? Thanks KC!!
Leshoure. Just hate having to trust a Shanahan backfield.
What do you think of the Titans receivers this year? Are any of them worth starting?
Named Washington a PPR sleeper and he could very well be a standard league sleeper as well.
what don't you like about the redman situation? injury? dwyer? mendenhall coming back sooner rather than later?
That comment might very well be placed under the facetious heading.
What up scientist, just got Mike Wallace in the 6th round earlier this week in my 12 team PPR. I've got Rice and Eli and my WR's are Marshall, Cruz and Wallace is my 3rd WR! I'm alittle shallow at RB after Rice but in our leaue we dont have to start 2 RB's just 1 RB 1 WR and a combo of either RB/WR for the othr 2 sopts. Should I trade Wallce for a RB or just roll out Rice w/ Cruz, Marshall Wallace? Thanks!
What up, Dexter! Depends on the trade and who you have as a backup RB. In general, though, don't trade Wallace unless you get at least a green-rated RB in return (think top 20 level of RB).
The worst QB you'd feel OK with in a 12 team league this year is _____.
You seem to be BY FAR the highest on CJ2K out of any analyst I've seen. What makes you so confident that he bounces back?
Wrote a detailed article on Insider about this a few weeks back. Nutshell - the lockout, poor blocking and poor playcalling crushed his season last year but all of those issues were worked out by season's end. They will be worked out this year as well.
Took David Wilson and Daniel Thomas in the later rounds. Seems they both have bandwagons at this point. What's your take?
On Wilson's bandwagon, not so sold on Thomas. Just didn't like Thomas' GBYPA at Kansas State or with Miami.
KC, I love the upside with Brandon Lloyd with him being reunited with McDaniels and Tom Brady his QB, my only concern is targets with all the weapons the Patriots have. With that being said Brandon Lloyd or Erick Decker? Also, can you give me a stat line for Cutler this year? Thanks!
Lloyd by a mile over Decker. The Patriots want to throw deep and last year they had to throw deep to tight ends who didn't perform that well on those types of passes. Lloyd excels at them and he will see 125 total targets and 60-70 vertical targets. Cutler gets 25-28 TDs, 15-18 ints and about 3,800 passing yards.
What's your take on Vick Ballard? Are you on his bandwagon?
Yes and no. Liked some of his college tape breakdowns but didn't like other parts of it. Crowded backfield also caps his value.
Russell Wilson will challenge for ROY honor in 2012. Write it down. The sleeping on Seattle has to stop. Granted, you live in CT. But still, Seattle is right there with SF, and now with a better QB. East Coast Bias be damned...The Hawks roll in 2012.
I live in CT? Mrs. Scientist is going to be upset when she hears about that.
Who catches Peyton's TD's in Denver? Can Thomas get to double digits?
Thomas has talent but, as John Clayton and Matt Williamson have pointed out, Peyton is having issues throwing to the right. Also don't think Peyton has great vertical passing skills any more. Would take the under on that one.
is jake locker a good 3rd string qb in a 2 qb leugue
Would you take J Best as a last round pick and stash him on your bench?
Nope. Can't suggest locking up a roster spot for someone who can't play until week 8 at the earliest.
I really think you'll be wrong on Lloyd. He won't bust like Ocho, but so many mouths to feed on that team and Lloyd has admitted he has struggled to get on the same page with Brady. You're basically saying that his vertical game is enough to make him a super-elite WR? I'm not seeing it.
Never let it be said that this chat blocks opposing viewpoints.
I am in a 12 team league and my top backs are Charles, Sproles, Redman, Hillis and Ryan Williams. What do you think of that combination?
Like the 1-2 Chiefs connection. Sold on Sporles. Think Williams will be the starter. Very concerned about Redman.
Do you Luck ends up being a low end QB1
Not this year. Indy won't throw enough passes and he just doesn't have enough WR talent around him.
If you could only have 1 defense for the entire season and your choices were the Steelers, Seahawks, or Giants, who would you roll with?
Hawks. Have them as the third-rated D/ST.
Do you think Benson has any chance of being a low end RB2 or is that too much to ask? what would you say his auction value is?
Have Benson rated No. 31 among RBs at this point but his value could move up a bit in the next cheat sheet update. Low end RB2/high-end RB3. Auction value around $20-22.
Hey KC, have a draft tonight in a keeper league. My first pick comes down to MJD or Andre/Welker/Roddy (I have Foster, sproles and jennings already) any advice?
With that lineup already in place, you don't have to take many chances. Stick with the highest percentage pick - Roddy.
KC, thoughts on Reggie Wayne for the year...homey fell into the 12th round of our draft...did I miss something? Did he have a leg amputated?
Spot on analysis. Wayne made last week's list of TFS undervalued WRs. He had a great end to 2011 and will be the technician Luck leans on often this year.
Thoughts on Brandon LaFell as a WR5? If Smith gets injured, surely he would get elevated to the first choice in CAR, right? (Setting you up for the obligatory, Dont Call me Shirley! response)
Mike, I just want to say good luck, we're all counting on you. LaFell could be the best late round pick any owner makes this year. He had terrific metrics last year, already has the starting job locked down and is getting rave reviews this preseason.
Sorry KC, you live in a super high-tech fantasy science bunker beneath CT, where machines test the tensile strength of bone and whiteboards replace wallpaper. And we all know you don't have a wife. ;)
Whatever it is that you are drinking, share some with us.
KC, what should we expect out of Dwayne Bowe this year with a healthy Cassell? Top 20 WR? Top 10?
Bowe is a green-rated player but barely. Cassel's longstanding issues on vertical passes are just too much of a concern to think Bowe is a lock for a higher rating.
LaFell gonna have a better year than Britt?
Depends on how many games Britt misses.
Better late round pick, Lafell or Jon Baldwin?
Hands down, LaFell.
People lots of times talk about RB handcuffs. Is the point to draft both and start them both every week? The two sets which I hear a lot are Jackson and Spiller, and Charles and Hillis?
RB handcuffs work best when the handcuff is like Toby Gerhart was last year - very low cost but a player who posts superb numbers when placed in the lineup. In a pure platoon situation (as Buffalo and Kansas City look to be in), it really isn't so much a RB handcuff situation as it is rotating starters.
When's the next cheat sheet being released from the lab?
Work will start on that as soon as the chat is complete. Hoping to send it out later this evening, but it could be tomorrow morning.
Looks like 12th man picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
We had to know that joke was coming!
Would you take Rivers over P. Manning in a 12 team PPR league?
Yep. Rivers is 9th on the QB cheat sheet and Manning ranks 12th.
I used your guide and was able to draft L.McCoy, F.Gore, S.Smith, H.Nicks and J.Finley but had to settle for J.Freeman in a 14 team league. What do you think? Should I make a move at QB?
Yeah, you'll want to look for an additional QB. Aim for someone like Ponder or Dalton if none of the yellow-rated QBs are available.
Mrs. Mike is making some chicken adobo (Filipino dish), whats Mrs Scientist got cooking up tonight?
Chicken adobo - sounds interesting! Mrs. Scientist has had a pot roast cooking for the past few hours.
I have Percy Harvin as a clear top ten receiver in standard leagues? Being drafted well below that. What am I missing?
It's the injury factor. A fully healthy Harvin for a full season is a top 10 WR.
Better backup QB (roster rules require it) Freeman or Russell Wilson?
I'll take Freeman if only because he has Vincent Jackson to throw to.
KC, love the work as always. Drafted Vick last year in a 12 team league at #4 overall. This year I got him in the sixth round in the same league. Steal or has his star started to fade that quickly?
He's a definite steal in the sixth round. Sure, he might not make it through an entire season but when he does play, he's a highly rated green-rated QB.
Is Jerome Simpson worth drafting and stashing away for week 4 and beyond?
Yep. He made this week's TFS sleeper PPR picks because of that.
With you being as high as you are on Brandon Lloyd, doesn't that put Tom Brady over the top and make him the #1 QB if not the #1 overall pick? I mean the guy had 39 tds 5200 yards without Lloyd? And last time he was with McDaniels, he threw for a record 50 tds!
Good question. The change in pass distribution will make the Lloyd addition a zero-sum game to a certain extent. It's not as if Brady ranks low or anything, as he is ranked No. 7 overall and second among QBs.
can keep 1: Beast Mode or D Murray- DALThanks!
Murray. Beast Mode may have been contract year motivated.
I'm super late for the chat.Which DST for week one Texans or Eagles?
Man, is it time to do the start-sit charts already? Quick look says Houston would get the nod.
Thanks for the chat & enjoy the pot roast. I'll be having salt-n-vinegar potato chips
Bon appetit! Well, got to get started on the draft guide update, so it's time to hit the road. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. More info about the TFS draft guide can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Thanks for the questions and I hope to see you all here next week to talk some week 1 fantasy football!!!