Let's get this party started.
We're on ...
I have 2 issues with your Morris vs HOF article.1) Even "Very Good" Starters are more valuable than the HOF Relievers already in the hall. 2) Morris's reputation was better among his contempories such things like Starting All-Star games and Series show he was highly respected, at least narratively, not just now, but then.
David Wells also started two All-Star Games and twice started the first game of a World Series, so it's interesting how that argument also fits him.
Any chance the Rays will listen to trade offers for Price from say...Texas or LAA? What could they possibly get in return for him?
I don't think so, at least not this year. The Rays have a good team now that can make the playoffs. And Price's trade value doesn't really change from this year to next year all that much.
Why is there not WAR for Mangers and General Managers? Pretty sure Dayton Moore would be the Ty Wiggington of GM's!
Or hitting coaches and pitching coaches!
Is Toronto in your top 10 after the Dickey trade?
Yes, I would move them into the top 10. ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski has a piece today and his projection system has the Jays at 93 wins and the favorite to win the East. Projection systems are by nature more conservative, so 93 wins is a pretty impressive total.
If you owned a MLB franchise, would you rather have Theo Epstein or Mike Trout?
Mike Trout. Good question though. I think *most* front offices are pretty smart these days and evaluate players pretty similarly. It really comes down to who is willing to take risks and who isn't. That's why I love what Alex A. has done this offseason: Cash in the prospect chips and make a run. High-risk but very high reward.
Dave, who wins the Mets/Blue Jays trade? I like the Jays because you can never predict how prospects pan out. D'arnaud is going to the DL a lot in future years
I don't really like saying one team "won" a trade and the other lost. It fits the needs of both teams. D'Arnaud's injury history -- he's averaged 88 games a year in the minors -- has to be a major concern, however.
Klaw thinks Toronto paid a heavy price for Dickey, but will anyone care after Dickey strikes out 11 Tigers in game 7 of the 2013 ALCS? PLus, I would always be very worried about a guy whose position depends on squatting have a season ending knee surgery.
Heard Alex A. on the radio this morning and that's essentially what he said: All he cares about if whether Dickey pitches well for them. If he does, it's a good trade for the Jays, regardless of whether D'Arnaud turns into an All-Star or not.
Which player named Young would you rather have next year, Michael or Delmon?
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The Giants sweep the Tigers and win the world series and maintain all their players and still dont crack the top 10. You are are an idiot and should be fired immediately.
Where do the M's go from here? They've whiffed on FA's this winter. Are we going to be seeing a lot of their prospects learning at the major league level again?
I still like the idea of signing Swisher, but with each day that seems less likely. At this point, I guess I'd rather just see them stand pat then spend money on a Michael Bourn or Adam LaRoche. Realistically, 2013 isn't there year anyway. Maybe better to play a year with the fences moved in to see how the park plays and thus better evaluate what you do have.
Now that the Reds' leadoff issue has seemingly been solved, who do you think gets the #2 spot in the lineup. Cozart? Phillips? Maybe even Ryan Hanigan?
Dusty doesn't seem to believe in Hanigan there, so I would guess Choo, Phillips, Votto, Ludwick, Bruce. Of course, Choo can't hit lefties -- Hanigan would be a GREAT leadoff hitter against lefties. Career OBP well above .400 against LHP.
Is it fair to say most of Hunter's offensive success last year was predicated on the increase in fastballs he saw with Trout on base? With that in mind, would it make sense to use a guy like Kendrick who traditionally struggles against breaking pitches but is otherwise a linedrive machine as the new 2 guy?
I looked into that and if I remember correctly, Hunter didn't hit any better against fastballs (or see more of them) than he did in 2011. But there could be something there that just isn't showing up in the numbers.
If you were running the phillies, would you be looking to trade Lee or Halladay as a way to either (i) unload the crappy contracts (cough Howard cough) or (ii) bring in some young talent?
What do you think of the Phillies trade for Ben Revere. I think Worley and May were too much? Also, don't you think for this price Peter Boujos would have been a better option?
Two Phillies questions at once. I'd do exactly what they've done: Try to ride this veteran core at least one more season. I like the Revere trade, especially if it means they have money left to sign Swisher to play left or right. I do love Bourjos, although many in the game don't believe in his bat, even though he did OK back in 2011. I can see why the Phillies would rate Revere higher, although I'm with you and would rate Bourjos a little better because his defense is SO good.
It seems to me that the dodgers screwed up with the trade to the red sox. They have a ton of money and roster spots tied up in expensive, mediocre to decent players like Hanley, Ethier, Crawford, Beckett. Even Agonzalez is hardly bargain. If they had kept their powder dry and not filled the spots with those guys, they could have signed superior players like Hamilton, Swisher, or been part of the salary dump with the Marlins.
Good point. They got carried away last summer in believing they had a chance to win.
If Aroldis Chapman pitches well as a starter (sub-3.50 ERA, strong K/9 rate), where does that put Cincinnati's rotation in the NL and in all of baseball?
Factoring in their home park, it may have been the best best in the NL last year. Overall, Reds were 5th in the majors in ERA and 2nd in innings. Given those numbers, Chapman would be an upgrade over Mike Leake, so I would argue they could be a top-3 rotation this year.
who says "no" for a trade essentially consisting of profar for shelby miller? Personally I like the idea more than miller for andrus since it would be highly touted prospect for highly touted prospect.
Rangers say no. Position prospect worth more than a pitching prospect.
I can't decide if the Orioles strategy of standing pat (thus far) is brilliant because they realize their success was a bit of a fluke, or stupid because they think they can repeat their success with only minor tweaks.
Well, we don't know what they've tried to do or who they've tried to sign, only to see those things not work out. I know Dan Duquette has said the team wants another bat. Not sure if they trying to sign LaRoche and just waiting to see what happens there or not.
Even at their best, guys like Michael Young and Kevin Youkilis are not much better than replacement level. So, given the definition of "replacement level," why are players like this in any demand at all?
Well, at his best, Youkilis was an MVP candidate, so I'm not quite sure what you're getting at. If you're asking why they're in demand after their 2012 seasons, I would agree that I'm not exactly sure. But, hey, Young hit .338 or whatever in 2011 and Youkilis can still get on base, so I can see why teams would take a chance on them.
Do you think Tommy Hanson has a better season with the Angels?
No. Big injury risk in my book.
Porcello for Bourjous ... are the Tigers getting enough there? one one hand, Bourjous is an excellent defensive upgrade, and Porcello may be the 6th starter. On the other hand, if Bourjous isn't playing CF, doesn't that de value his defensive contribution?
Hmm ... I guess the question is if Bourjos is playing left field, does his defense make up the difference compared to Dirks' bat? Seems pretty even to me: Bourjos may be a +15 defender but Dirks is probably at least 15 runs better with the bat. But you give Porcello to do that. Not that I love Porcello. Why not try Porcello in the pen? Wonder how he would do there.
Chapman's WAR last year was higher than Starter Matt Latos. Maybe he is truly more valuable in the bullpen, especially if the reds use him in more multiple inning appearances, pushing his innings towards 100.
I know. He was SO good in that role that there is risk involved. Especially if, as you say, the Reds were a little more liberal in his usage.
The Dodgers could have signed superior players....like Swisher? Yeah...he's the cream of the crop.
Swisher is a good player. I think the point is he's better than Crawford and would cost a lot less.
Has Braves' GM Frank Wren messed up by hanging on to both Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado this long? It's somewhat disappointing they weren't able to swing Denard Span or Ben Revere as their LF/leadoff guy for one of those guys now. Seems like they could have gotten a huge return for one of those guys even last year.
Teheran is an excellent example of overrating prospects or the risks in hanging on to them too long. He would have fetched a very nice player a year ago ... now, after posting a 5.08 ERA in Triple-A, his value is way, way down. Another reason to love the Jays trading away some of these Class A pitching prospects.
Hey David - wondering what the Dickey-D'Arnaud trade says about JP Arencibia. Does it say the Jays are confident with him even given the flaws in his game, that they felt D'Arnaud was a better trade chip, or both? And do you think JP has upside, or have we seen his peak?
D'Arnaud certainly had more trade value. Good piece on FanGraphs, however, that pointed out D'Araund and Arencibia had very similar isolated power and walk rate at Las Vegas. As far as Arencibia, catchers sometimes develop late as hitters, but with him I'd say the walk rate/OBP is so poor that he's probably unlikely to improve much.
Saw Jay Jaffe wrote that Edgar Martinez was placed into the DH role due to injury risk and not defensive deficencies. Wahoo! Now there are two of us writing about that! When will HOF voters realize that baseball has always had DH's, it's just the rules said they had to go out in the field, too?
Yes, Edgar was actually an adequate third baseman. The voters elected Molitor a few years ago and Molitor spent half his career as a DH, so not sure why it should be counted against Edgar.
Dave: Mike Piazza has never been formerly accused or proven to have taken steroids. Well aware he played in the Roid Era, but since he is consensus best hitting C of all time, shouldn't it be a no-brainer that he gets voted into the HOF this yr? Yet, all I read is that he will fall way short. I know about public perception, but hasn't that been carried a tad too far here?
Guilty until proven innocent. Of course, more guilty if you hit home runs and had big muscles.
Raise your hand if you think the Tigers should have signed Greinke and Hamilton as Little Caesar throws money at the team for one last hurrah
Any more bats that the Rays are looking to pick-up before the season begins?
They'll probably pick one more cheap 1B/DH type like they did last year with Luke Scott (and the ill-fated Matsui experiment).
Or here's an idea: What about a prospect for Alfonso Soriano, with the Cubs picking up a large chunk of Soriano' salary?
You think Lance Berkman plays in 2013?
Seems like he wants to play. Maybe the Rays give him a shot. Thought he might head back to Houston but the Astros signed Carlos Pena yesterday.
The Mariners are moving in the fences, but I was wondering will this actually help? Is there any evidence that more extreme park effects actually hurt long term player development the same way they saw Coors field traumatizes pitchers?
Buster Posey has developed pretty well despite playing in AT&T Park. I don't know of a study, but Safeco was crazy weird last year and I do think it was getting into the players' heads a bit.
any news or hopes about the angels trading trumbo, bourjos, or morales?
Rumors are out there, yes. Angels probably want to trade Morales, but he has the least value of the three.
how bad are the 2013 Astros going to be? I smell a 110+ loss season for them.
They're going to miss those 15 games against the Cubs, that's for sure.
When are the Rays moving to Portland?
No time soon! Lease in Tampa runs through 2023 or something.
Theo Epstein or Mike Trout, if you also had to take Tony Reagins, the Angels GM who made the wonderful V. Wells deal?
See what I mean? Front offices are getting smarter.
Suprised the Giants brought back Andres Torres? It appears they are going to use him as the right handed platoon to Blanco in LF. Seems like Brian Sabean is going to be looking for a LF come July.
He usually is.
Hey Dave, I really think Greinke ends up signing with the Dodgers. I know the Rangers and Angels want him, but I think the Dodgers end up making him an offer he can't refuse. I also see Anibal Sanchez re-signing with the Tigers, but not before the Cubs of all teams make a late push for him.
You should start a blog with all that inside info!
If Tigers trade Porcello. They need either a middle infielder or closer back. Any names you'd think of that might work?
I've suggested Brendan Ryan of the Mariners. Gold Glove winner, true defensive whiz. If Tigers just want to upgrade defense, I'd go after him. Pirates reportedly offering Hanrahan. I don't think Porcello alone delivers either player, but Porcello + prospect could work.
What's been your favorite M's team of your lifetime? For me (and I'm only 26) it's got to be 1995 team. I used to rewatch the "My oh My!" VHS all the time.
I'd probably say '95 as well since I was still in Seattle at the time. Was living in Connecticut in 2001, so mostly just watched that team via TV.
David, I've been hearing plenty of Swisher rumors lately. Supposedly he's currently meeting with (or has already met with) the Tribe again sometime this week. What % would you assess to the odds of Swisher ending up in Cleveland, and what other teams do you see as potential frontrunners if he doesn't sign with the Tribe?
No idea on the percentage. I'd say four teams make a lot of sense for Swisher: Indians, Mariners, Phillies, Giants, Orioles. Which means he'll sign with the Marlins.
How about a Kendry's Morales & Hank Conger trade for Hellickson? I think both teams would benefit from this move. Rays always find young arms wonder if they would listed for Hellickson?
No way do you trade Hellickson for a DH and backup catcher.
Morales is OK, but .320 OBP isn't great, doesn't hit lefties all that well, can't run.
Would Berkman be a good 1 year fit for the Rays?
Seems like the type of player the Rays would take a chance on.
It makes too much sense for the O's to go after Swisher. They can't stand pat and expect to contend with TB, NYY and Tor.
Could you see the Orioles trading a starter and relief pitcher to the Angels for Trumbo or Morales?
Sure, could be a match there. Steve Johnson + reliever for Morales? Orioles have some depth there, especially if they're determined to try Matusz in the rotation again, and if Bundy is ready.
Why would anyone willingly play in the Factory of Sadness? That's a pretty big drop from the Yankees to the Indians.
Ahh, Jason, that's not nice. You know, it wasn't too long ago that the Indians were outdrawing the Yankees.
Edgar was a beast, but he didnt get 3000 hits like Molitor, so not sure it applies...Second Borjous cant hit. he had one decent year, vs years of Major league and minor league evidence he cant. Im so tired of everyone going crazy over him.. even the Angels, who are one of the dumbest front offices in the game, know he cant hit. If he could hit, he would actually play..
What kinda contract would I get in 2013 if I weren't dead?
I should do a post on that. What if all-time great players were free agents in 2013? Would be fun to speculate.
Why does Joe Morgan hate Ron Santo?
Ron Santo was one of the most disliked players among his contemporaries. Not exactly sure why.
You don't think Porcello brings back Brendan Ryan? I was hoping the Cards could get him back for a weak prospect.
Rick Porcello isn't that good. Ryan is a 3-win player with his defense.
David, can you suggest any additional closers or poor-hitting middle infielders I may have missed? Thanks!
Despite a pretty quiet off-season, the A's seem to have improved the the overall talent of the team. They have good pitching depth, good OF depth, and good bullpen depth. Yet, the pundits still have the Rangers and Angels as the best in the division. Why?
I agree. I think everyone is underestimating them. When young teams take a big leap forward like that A's did, it's usually for real. And I don't see anything on the roster that screams "fluke" about last year, except maybe Brandon Moss.
As a Mariners fan did you like John Olerud? He's my favorite players ever. Let's hear it for the Big Rude!
Love John Olerud. My wife's favorite player. She actually has a growth chart poster of him in her office.
Donnie Baseball and myself hate all of you 1995 M's fans. We really do.
Cora was safe. Did not run out of the baselines. No sir.
I think there were at least a couple of factors with the Dodgers at the time of the big trade; first, a new ownership group itching for a chance to do a??somethinga?ý; second a GM who had been deprived of budget so long he got carried away, like a child with a new toy.
Going back to the Dickey trade, which team won by swapping catchers in Buck and Thole?
Not sure what happened to Thole last year, but my Mets fans friends say his defense regressed along with his offense. I guess it's pretty even. Alex A. said Buck was in the trade mainly to help balance out Dickey's 2013 salary.
Well at least i get to laugh at the Jason Bay/Delmon Young 2013 M's corner outfield apocalypse! Seriously, Seattle can't sign Young right?
Why are doing this to me? You could been like the other guys and brought up Edgar and Olerud, but no ... Jason Bay.
When is my man Kyle Lohse going to start getting some attention in the FA market?
Did the Jays take Thole in the deal to catch Dickey? I was wondering that. I remember the trouble Wakefield had when he lost his personal catcher.
Ahh, good point. Makes sense.
What RH hitters are out there as platoon mates? THe Old LeftY kILLER.
Cody Ross, Scott Hairston, our man Delmon Young can actually hit lefties. Not too much else.
Is it easier to find a great DH or a great closer?
Very few full-time DHs anymore, so I'd say closer.
Michael Morse to the Rays for........? Any thoughts?
Hmm, Nationals don't really *need* anything and they'd have to sign LaRoche before trading Morse. Not sure what a possible match would be as I don't think the Rays would do Hellickson or Archer, so that takes you down to Alex Cobb (Nats say no) or a low-level pitching prospect.
What's your take on the Rockies moves this off-season, starting with the head coach? I feel like we need to seriously consider moving CarGo or Tulo.
Worst team in the NL right now.
I entered my location, going by the rest of the questions today you have to answer my question; are local TV contracts going to up end the competitive balance more than anything else in MLB?
It's a big issue, no doubt. Even though local TV money is split -- I think 38 percent gets distributed -- the money teams like the Angels, Rangers and Dodgers will be bringing in via their cable deals are ginormous. Of course, the Astros just signed a deal that brings them $80 million and the Padres signed one that bring them $60 million per year. But the teams that are left behind or certainly going to be at a huge disadvantage.
Vince Coleman once threw a lit firecracker at a fan. #95 Mariners
When he was with the Mets!
If you were the Orioles, would you give up a first rounder for LaRoche?
I wouldn't. Although it's a late first-rounder, which means a lot lower probability than a top-10 pick.
LOL Doug Mirabelli, immortalized as Wakefield's personal catcher.
Who do you pick in your NL expansion draft for shortstop? Or I should say, who's better in that role than Brandon Crawford?
Do salaries matter? Let's say they don't. Readers?
I am baffled as to why AJ hasn't been signed by anyone yet. i know there are concerns about clubhouse chemistry with him, but it's shocking that someone like Russell Martin would be signed ahead of AJ when I thought that AJ and Napoli would easily be the top 2 catchers available in FA. Thoughts?
Tough guy to evaluate. Career year last year, not young, but he's been very durable and can handle a pitching staff. OK, so he's not well-liked, and that can turn off some teams. My guess he's waiting for a certain team in New York to perhaps make an offer he wants.
Edgar Martinez had a slash line of .312/.418/.515 and finished his career with more walks (1283) than strikeouts (1202). Molitor's line of .306/.369/.448 seems pretty pathetic in comparison. Molitor also played in 500+ more games than Martinez in more seasons. Molitor got to the big leagues at Age 21 - Martinez at Age 24 and didn't have his first full season until Age 27. Are we supposed to penalize Martinez because he wasn't called up early and had a rash of injuries?
Well, yes, injuries should be considered, as staying healthy has value. Edgar actually gets a bad rap there: Had the hamstring injury in 1993, missed a little time in '94 (strike year) and in 2002, but otherwise pretty durable.
I have a big problem with where Lou Gehrig was ranked on that list last week. He's a top 3 player of all-time in my book. If he didn't get sick he could have put up all the power records. I mean, he hit 29 HRS in a year when he began to feel the effects or ALS. It's certainly hard to find a player who had a better 10 year period than Gehrig's 1927-1937 seasons. Thoughts?
Ranking seemed about right to me as he doesn't has the defensive value of the center fielders or Honus Wagner or Barry Bonds or even Ruth. You debate the disease, but in the end it was just a catastrophic injury.
Darin Ruf will be more than a legit LF for the Phillies, they went 10+ years with Luzinski and another 10 with Burrell. He will be more than servicable!
Brendan Ryan is perhaps better than Porcello now, but Porcello is younger and can improve. And no way is a 60 IP closer like Hanrahan is equal in value to a 23yr old 200 IP guy. You're undervaluing Porcello. I'd say RP for Ryan straight up would be fairish... if trading RP for Hanrahan it would be Pittsburgh that would need to add to the deal.
Andrelton Simmons - he is going to be a star
On a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being bad), how screwed are the Brewers? Every team in the NL Central has taken steps to improve itself other than the Brewers. Their bullpen is a mess, and their starting rotation is very questionable.
I wonder if they'll sneak in and sign Lohse or Edwin Jackson. I know they wanted Dempster, but I'm with you: Need another starter. Still ... they could surprise. Won 83 games last year and the bullpen had the most blown saves in the majors. Cut out five of those and it's an 88-win team.
Have to go with Tulo!
Not Hanley that's for sure.
I'm taking Andrus as my shortstop if given every one of them is available. Which makes it seem all the more crazy that the Rangers would even consider trading him.
Ron Santo was very self-serving. How many players push for their own induction into the HOF as Santo did? He wasn't even that much better than Ken Boyer or Ron Cey.
LOL It would be fitting for Rockies management to refer to their manager as their head coach, so I hope Andrew's phrasing of that question was intentional...
Rockies are probably not too happy that the astros switched leagues to take that crown away from them.
Which Hall of Fame eligible player do you believe belongs in there the most? excluding the steroid cloud guys of course. I'd have to vote for either Trammell or Dale Murphy. You? And follow up. Does Murphy ever get in?
Aside from the more obvious candidates, I say Trammell. Easily qualified by traditional HOF standards. Basically not much difference between him and Larkin.
What do you think of the CIN-CLE-AZ trade last week? I love Choo coming to the Reds but can he play CF every day?
Choo's defensive metrics were way down last year, so I think his defense could be a problem. I predict he starts about 100-110 games out there, as Heisey should play against lefties and Choo can spell Ludwick sometimes in left.
After adding Terry Francona, i'm a bit surprised the Tribe aren't doing more this off season. can they expect to keep him around playing Moneyball? he's used to living the high life from his Boston days ...
I think he realizes it's a rebuilding situation there.
With his splits CarGo isn't going anywhere with that contract. And no one is offering fair value for Tulo with all the injuries he's had. It's going to be a long couple of years for the Rockies.
Agreed. The Astros are bad, but at least they have a plan. Rockies are a mess right now.
Does Brendan Ryan & Taijuan Walker net me Oscar Taveras?
Hmm ... interesting ... very interesting ...
Pre JR (1988 and before) who was your fav M's players? Alvin Davis, Mark Langston someone else?
Definitely AD. We called him Mr. Mariner. Loved Langston as well and his high leg kick.
Fill in the blanks: The hottest managerial seat in MLB is in_____, and when I get fired, the team will hire _______?
Have to say Mattingly if the Dodgers get off to a slow start. Or Ned Yost, since KC has kind of gone all-in.
Just for fun, how about Morse and Espinosa for Zorilla?
Intriguing. Is depth more valuable? Jays would be taking a potential OBP hit there though, so not sure it improves them all that much when you could go Zobrist + cheap FA.
David, do you get the feeling there is a lot of demand for some of the Orioles young starters (Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman)? I know Duquette likes depth, but all those guys (though Tillman seemed to turn a corner last season) have failed to show any consistent production in the majors. Should the O's not leap at a trade if someone shows the value those young guys? With Bundy and Gausman coming up, I think the O's can afford to unload 2 of the 4 for a bat.
All those guys are a mixed bag of info right now: Inconsistency and/or health issues. Britton clearly would highest, but I'm not sure even he would bring a huge return since he's had some shoulder issues. It's nice to have depth, but the depth is really just a bunch of 4/5 starters. But I like the Morales idea that somebody suggested.
Mark Reynolds would look good on the Rays as a Right-handed DH/1st basemen. But i don't think they can afford to pay him.
He signed with Cleveland.
after the Dickey trade, where do you rank the Jays? (Vegas has them as the highest-odds to win the World Series)
haha ... and Vegas had the Angels No. 1 after they signed Hamilton. Seems Vegas is quite reactionary. I'd put Jays six or seven right now.
mark langston? he was my favorite player too!
Hottest seat is definitely in Texas, it gets up like 100+ degrees in the summer!
Well, that's true ... but Ron Washington's seat could be extra hot this year.
Hottest managerial seat should be Ron Washington! He gets lost in that he has had alot to do with the last 3 years of Rangers issues.
Dave, what do you see Brett Lawrie's second full season being like? Are we going to see the 25 homer, 100 RBI potential come to fruition?
Power was a disappointment last year, so maybe we have to adjust our expectations a bit. Maybe 18 to 20 HRs, RBIs dependent on where he hits in the lineup.
To be fair, ie- David in Stockton, CA...Molitor provided a lot more than his ability at the plate; one of the smartest baserunners of the era and a deadly leadoff hitter. Nothing against Edgar but Molitor is fully deserving of his status as a HOFer and likely the better overall player.
How much did the Astros figure into your projections? The fact that the Reds and Cardinals don't get to beat up on them, while the Rangers, Angels and A's do.
Certainly a factor ... I probably should have looked at that a bit closer. Maybe a reason to downgrade the Reds from the No. 2 spot I had them in.
As an outside observer, I think what the Brewers need to do is bring back the mug of beer for Bernie Brewer to slide in to after homeruns.
Are the Nats better off signing a lefty reliever or 2 like JP Howell and Mike Gonzalez and going with Michael Morse at 1B. Or.... should they resign LaRoche and trade Morse for lefty bullpen help?
How about signing a lefty reliever and LaRoche and keeping Morse and take advantage of all that depth? I think they can fit all that into payroll. Morse provides good insurance if somebody goes down, keeps everyone rested, maximizes platoons and so on.
Who is "Zorilla"?
This is why we don't play with scissors and "magic numbers", kids. Both Edgar and Molitor had careers that were solidly middle tier HOF at third base, if that's where you rate them. They did it in different ways, but their overall impacts were very similiar.
Please...Ron Washington's dugout cam brings ratings during the playoffs. he's not going anywhere
Just how immoratl IS Doug Mirabelli? Remember he got a police escort to Fenway when he was traded back to Boston to make it on time to catch Wakefield's start against the Yankees in 2006. Dedication, holmes.
I think that Vladimir Guerrero deserved to be in the Hall of 100 or at least honorable mention. His numbers are similar to Jeff Bagwell. What do you think?
Well, there is a big difference in WAR, which I think the voters considered. Bagwell had more peak seasons -- eight 5-win seasons versus five for Vlad.
Bill James still works for the Sox right? is the front office not really listening to him or has he lost his way in the last couple of years? wouldn't it have made more sense to give Ross the contract they gave Victorino since they knew they weren't trading Ellsbury?
He's just one voice. And probably a minor one at this point. But is Ross really any better? Victorino can at least play CF. And maybe they did make Ross a similar offer and he turned it down.
Questions from Canada all over this chat. We really need to get hockey back, if only for our friends up north.
In terms of Hall of Fame voting, MVP voting, or whatever, isn't refusing to vote for a DH because he doesn't field the same as refusing to vote for Mariano Rivera or Pedro Martinez because they pitched in the AL and didn't get to bat?
The one that gets me is people who won't vote for Edgar but will vote for closers. Both are "specialized" positions, so to speak.
Are the Twins finished dealing after trading Span,Revere and signing Correia & Pelfrey??? will they finish dead last again in the AL??
Shaping up to be quite a race between the Indians and Twins. Correia, Pelfrey, Worley ... doesn't inspire much confidence.
You make some valid points in your article about leaving the Giants out of the top ten but your argument seems to boile down to players who had off years will not get better while players that played over their head will obviously regress. Is that fair?
Probably not. But my main argument is that the Giants' true talent level is more of an 88-win team than a 94-win team. So even then, I think to win 94 games again they'll need improvement somewhere, and that's assuming all five starters remain healthy again.
Vegas has the Jays at high odds to generate action on them. They're far from the WS favorite.
Tarek should have read Joe from Canada's blog...
Wow, I've been out of it. Do you think Reynolds is a good fit in Cleveland? I think he is a decent 1st basemen.
He looked OK at first for the Orioles. And they needed a right-handed power bat. Not a bad signing for the money.
Which Crawford's going to have a better season: Brandon or Carl?
Good question ... Love B. Crawford's glove. Even if he hits like last year, he's a pretty valuable player. So I'll take B.C. over C.C.
Re: Walker/Ryan for Taveras - if the Cards valued Ryan much at all, they wouldn't have traded him for pennies on the dollar. Somewhat different organizational dynamic at that point, of course, but still..........
I know there were some major personality clashes there. But I do think the Cards' underestimated his defensive abilities.
Bagwell's eight 5 win WAR seasons is solidly HOF quality at first base. Vlad's five are borderline for the middle tier in right field- I love the Impaler, but he needed another season or two of 5 wins...
Vlad is one of my all-time favorites. I'm a little surprised his career WAR isn't higher (55, very borderline), but I think he'll get in when he hits the ballot.
Since you mentioned that there are really no full time DHs these days...why is there still all this talk that at some point both leagues will have to use the DH?
Players Association still likes it. Maybe once Ortiz retires ...
Do you think we are done with surprises for this offseason?
I think a Justin Upton trade is the big one still hanging out there, although that seems less likely now.
At his peak Vlad Guerrero was one of the most exciting hitters to watch of all time. Not too many guys can hit homeruns on pitches from their eyes to their shoelaces.
Who are the top 5 least deserving members of the HOF
OK, players only ...
5. Lloyd Waner, OF, 1920s/1930s. As the story goes, somebody showed the Veterans Committee his brother's stats. Similar to Juan Pierre.
4. George Kelly, 1B, 1920s. One of Frankie Frisch's teammates with the Giants. Good player for about five years, but never had a 5-win season. Similar to Adam LaRoche.
3. Fred Lindstrom, 1920s/1930s. Another Frisch teammate. Was a regular for only seven seasons. Career .311 hitter, but everyone hit .300 in those days. Really only had three good seasons. A joke as a Hall of Famer.
2. Jack Chesbro, P, 1900s. Had his famous 41-win season in 1904 (last pitcher to win 40 games). But he basically made the Hall on one good season. It would be like electing Denny McLain because of his 30 wins for the Tigers in 1968.
1. Tommy McCarthy, OF, 1890s. Career WAR of 14.4. His one good season came in 1890 ... when the leagues were split up (the Players League challenged the NL and the American Association) and the caliber of competition was weak. Short career. Not good. Akin to electing Angel Pagan or somebody. Actually, Angel Pagan is better.
Wow these guys make Jack Morris, Jim Rice and Andre Dawson really look like HOF's!
Or Jack Morris for one World Series game.
hurry up already i got to get back to work sometime today
Why would the Cardinals trade Taveras for Walker and Ryan when they've already had Ryan and have great depth at pitching? No chance they do that.
Jim Rice. Easily.
Rice nowhere near the bottom. I count 31 position players inducted as players (not managers) with a lower career WAR.
What's your post-expansion Top 5?
OK, good question. As you can see, all those were old-timers. So players who were post 1961: Bruce Sutter, Bill Mazeroski, our man Jim Rice, Orlando Cepeda, Catfish Hunter.
I would say Dawson and Rice if they weren't "feared".
top of my head Rice, Dawson and Mazeroski.
In response to a question about why guys like Youkilis are in demand because they're "replacement" level. The answer is, they really aren't replacement level. As a Cubs fan and seeing Luis Valbuena, an offseason waiver claim, play most of the second half last year and not produce much of anything, THAT is replacement level . . . someone you can just pull off of waivers or a typical Triple-A free agent. Youkilis may not be in his prime, but his production is better than that.
Hey Chesbro invented the squeeze play also! #irony
David - With next year's HOF "veteran's" ballot... do you see Keith Hernandez getting in? or at least the movement towards his induction starting? A game-changer at 1B and now that the metrics exist to measure that, plus all the other things he did well which weren't as valued at the time... how do you keep someone who may be head and shoulders above any player at his position defensively out of the HOF?
Right, next year's ballot is another "Expansion Era" ballot, for 1973 on. Two years ago, the only guy to get in on that ballot was executive Pat Gillick. Hernandez wasn't on that ballot -- Davey Concepcion received the most votes of the players (8, 12 needed for election) -- so we'll have to see if he gets on it. Based on 2011, Hernandez doesn't get in (committee seems tough on the players).
With barely 1,000 RBIs, that will work against Hernandez, no matter his glove. His career WAR -- 57.1 -- is right on the borderline of bottom-tier HOFer.
Metrics didn't exist? Anyone who was alive in the 7'0's-80's could see and tell Hernandez was the best fielding 1st basemen of his time. For a few years Mattingly was rated besides him but no one was ever considered better than Keith. And with that said Keith is still not a HOF player.
Dave, you're killing me. how can you say Catfish doesn't belong in the HOF? Not only did he put up great #'s, but was an unbelievable big game pitcher.
Right, the big-game reputation got him in. But really had only three HOF-level seasons -- 1972, 1974, 1975. Won 20 games in '71 and '73, but there weren't really great seasons once you factor in the era and ballpark. Even if you do include those, we're talking about a five-year run. But, yes, many big starts with the A's in the playoffs.
Wow- first you diss the world champs by leaving them out of your top 10. Then your take on least worthy HOFers has two Giants, and you cap it off with an Angel Pagan slam. By the way - Seattle will NEVER win a World Series!
How did I slam Angel Pagan? I just said he's better than a Hall of Famer!
And I only listed one Giant! Unless you mean New York Giants, in which I listed three, not two.
Dave, who are some of the players that you thought were locks for the HOF earlier in their careers to only fizzle out. For me it was Juan Gonzalez. Most felt he and Griffey were shoe-ins for the 500 HR club. One got there, one derailed... also thought Carlos Baerga was going to get there too.
Well, from my childhood: Steve Garvey.
But Sutter renamed a pitch!
Jumping ahead to next year's HOF ballot, how do you evaluate Jeff Kent's chances of making it? Most HRs ever by a 2B but was essentially a 3B playing 2B and in comparison to them his numbers aren't great.
No shot on the first ballot. It will be a slow crawl for Kent, but he probably gets in on year 14. I just wonder if there will be a huge backlash against everyone from the steroid era, unless they hit certain milestones (3000 hits, like Biggio, or 300 wins) and of course have no PED taint.
Based upon the current voting and the standards of the last 5 years (players only) would 20 to 25% of the existing HOFers not meet those standards?
Probably closer to 50 percent. Almost everyone elected by the Veterans Committee would fall short of the BBWAA selections. The BBWAA has a few outliers -- Sutter, Rice, Catfish - but for the most parts elects the "obvious" candidates.
Kent did make the jury on Survivor and give the best voted-off rant ever. That's gotta help his HOF case.
Do Giants fans know that ESPN pointing out that their team over-achieved last year and isn't likely to win next year does not take away either of the last two World Series wins? Who cares if you think someone "hates" your team?
VF (North Texas), Donnie Baseball, Steve Garvey, Ron Guidry.
But, but, he's KEITH HERNANDEZ!
Biggest start not to make the HOF: Dwight Gooden.
You're right on Kent- he'll become more "feared" as the years go by...
SF fans need to remember that flags fly forever, as our good friend Keith Law would say.
Exactly! OK, thanks everyone. No chat next Tuesday since it's Christmas, so maybe later in the week. Be safe.