Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
i LOVED your suggestion of Welker joining Megatron in Detroit, seems like a perfect fit, but is there any way the Lions can make it a reality given their cap situation?
That was one of the borderline moves from a cap perspective, but Detroit does have some money to work with. It might take some creativity on their part but if the Ravens could get Flacco's cap space under their cap, the Lions could do the same with Welker.
More useful: QBR or Passer Rating?.... Don't let ESPN cloud your choice!
Passer rating is useful for general measurement of QB performance and for historical gauges. Total QBR is a better measurement of overall performance.
What are the chances of Wes Welker NOT being with the Patriots next year? (I'm thinking 2%)
Agree that the percentage is low. Thinking something like 10 percent.
Hi KC, would Eric Winston be a good option for the Dolphins if they don't resign Long?
Maybe, but he was quite inconsistent at times last year and he'd have to adjust to moving to the left side. Miami might be better off paying Long, even if he's not as dominant as he used to be.
Biggest free agent to change teams?
It's got to be Wallace, as he can have a bigger impact on an offense than any other player in FA. Definite RIP to Paul Bearer. Let's hope the WWE pays some sort of tribute to him at WrestleMania.
Where do you think Jared Cook ends up?
Let's hope its to some team that would flex him out a lot. Maybe Miami?
Hello KC, how does Sean Smith rate on your metrics and how big of a loss would it be for the Dolphins to lose him?
Smith has been somewhat inconsistent over the years but all in all he's an upper 1/3 of the league CB. That level of coverage talent is hard to come by but this year's draft does have more than a few CBs who might end up being quality starters in the near future.
Hi KC I have a question for you about the concept of there being diminished returns on the value of very elite cornerbacks. The Idea being a perfect cb would be less valuable than a very good one. The perfect cb gets thrown to infrequently but those passes still get thrown, but to lesser defenders. In this scenario the perfect cb is adding diminished value since cb#2 is determining the success rate of those passes. Anyways I was just curious if any of your complex analysis has ever suggested that this is a real effect that can be measured with the cb position or just a failed thought experiment.
Interesting idea. One thought to keep in mind is that in general, offenses are always going to throw to their best WR. That's part of why some of the top CBs in the NFL are still thrown at quite a lot (Revis was the most targeted CB three years ago). Also keep in mind that Nick Saban said there is no such thing as a shutdown CB.
KC, besides money what do you think will be a higher priority for Mike Wallace to sign with if the supposed report of Miami and Minnesota being the front runners are true: Miami has Tannehill good armed quarterback, but no run game and Wallace will probably be doubled teamed on every snap he's out there for or Minnesota with Ponder not so strong armed, but Adrian Peterson who pretty much commands an 8-9 man box everytime he's on the field and would give Wallace more one-on-one opportunities?
Hate to say it but money looks to be Wallace's primary motivation in wherever he signs. He ought to consider things other than just straight cash and that's why he should sign with a team like NE if he can get a solid offer out of them.
Do completely agree with your assessment that both of those situations are less than ideal for him.
What College Football Players that are on the 2013 NFL Draft Board do you think will be a Perfect fit for the Giants?
In his latest mock draft, Todd McShay has Tyler Eifert going to the Giants and that would definitely be a perfect fit. NY knows how to get the most out of TE talent and to have someone of Eifert's caliber would make that performance ceiling quite high.
Who do you see the Colts picking up by free agency?
It would be great to see them in the Wallace and Welker derbies, as their WR corps does need an upgrade, but they don't look to be players in those cases. They have to go after CB upgrades and there are more than a few CBs in FA who would be an upgrade so look for that to be their direction.
how effective can james Harrison be?
Put him into a defense where he just had to be situational pass rusher and he could still be quite an impact player. As an every down player, not so sold.
"He ought to consider things other than just straight cash and that's why he should sign with a team like NE if he can get a solid offer out of them" - Wallace would be considered a much greater risk than Moss was. I haven't heard a peep of interest from them.Jennings on the other hand has been discussed and I would love to see him in a Pats uniform but I think the price would be too high. I think the Pats are looking more at shoring up the CB position in FA. e.g. resign talib and bring in someone like smith or rogers-cromartie.
NE may be keeping quiet about their true plans, as they have to find a way to upgrade their vertical pass game. Jennings has the skills to upgrade their O but the gut instinct says he'll be Miami bound.
How does Keenan Lewis grade out? No turnovers, led the league in PDs.
If memory serves correct, he also had a sub 6.0 YPA. Had him as a red-rated CB because of that.
Montee Ball ran a reportedly 4.46 40 at his pro day. Does that elevate his draft stock alot or not much? Where do you see him going?
My take is the entire RB draft class is somewhat underrated. Ball is very good at getting the most out of good blocking and if he goes to a team that uses a similar power run type of attack that Wisconsin used, he's got the skills to be a starting RB. If that Pro Day 40 time is correct, that will only help his stock.
would a team like the steelers take a risk on marcus lattimore? he would be a steal if he starts week 1
Given their injury issues at RB the past couple of years, it seems more likely the Steelers would aim for someone with a better durability record than Lattimore.
SO you see any free agents added to the Colts defense??? If so who do you see?
They are probably going to go for value picks even though they have a ton of cap space. There are many CBs who could upgrade their D, who they get depends on how much money they want to spend.
Related note - check out ESPN Insider's new free agency tracker. This is a really cool way to review free agency - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/freeagency/
Do you believe that Auburn has a chance of winning the West this coming season?
They have a lot of returning talent and both LSU and Bama lost a lot of talent. Having said that, the overall talent gap is still probably too large, so their chances of winning the West look to be quite slim.
To me, the Bucs could really use multiple CBs, a middle LB, and a slot WR. Do you think they are best served filling these needs through free agency or the draft?
Slot WR upgrade might be best served via the draft. CB upgrades can be found in both FA and the draft, although FA might have more immediately impactful options (although at a potentially high price).
Where would I go if I were able to enter the draft this year (2013), do you think?
Manziel is still very, very raw. He had issues making in-game adjustments and makes too many bad decisions. He might go as early as the 3rd round if he were in this year's draft but he needs a lot more seasoning before being thought of as a potential high round pick.
How much inproved do you think the the Vols will be under Butch Jones?
Short-term, it could be a tough season as UT has a very brutal schedule and lost a boatload of talent. Long-term, he'll get this program back to SEC title contention. Check out Travis Haney's recent Insider article on this subject for more details (great work by Travis on that one).
Reevis trade talks is fun but personally I see little to no chance of this happening. I think this is all a play back and forth to get ready for Reevis' next contract with his agent saying there are suitors and the Jets org saying no they aren't interested.
There certainly don't seem to be any serious suitors, so the idea that it could be all smoke and no fire could very well be on the money.
Which FSU prospect will be the best player in the NFL? I personally think Carradine is going to be a great DE and would be drafted pretty high if not for his injury.
He'd be a hands down first round pick if not for the injury and he actually still might be able to get to close to that level even with the injury. I personally like him better than Werner, as too much of Werner's top performances came against second-rate clubs.
Do you think there's going to be a national champion ship heading to the hurricanes sin 2- 3 or sooner
They aren't in the toughest conference and they have a ton of returning starters this year (19 if memory serves correct), so the idea of them being a double-digit win team this year is not out of the question. They need more talent before they'll make a national championship run, however.
Can you help answer the question as to how FSU did not do better over the last couple season considering how many NFL caliber players they had?
It's the Bobby Bowden curse - this team just finds one game a year to play well below its talent level. That type of thing is typically revolved around coaching and not getting players to reach a certain level of performance every week regardless of opponent.
I hurt my draft stock at the combine, but performed a little better at my pro day yesterday. Am I still a late first round pick and who takes me?
Banks had a double-digit YPA last year, so there are questions as to how well he can cover. Personally speaking, I think Slay is actually the better MSU CB prospect. Banks probably goes in round one but should go in round two.
Packers have a few needs this year and could use an upgrade at more positions. What is the 1 position that if they upgraded would take the team to a new level? I have to say RB. If they added a RB that could be a game changer and would gain respect of defenses, that would open up Receivers downfield. thoughts?
GB is a team that could take advantage of the aforementioned underrated RB talent in this year's draft. Getting someone like, say, Johnathan Franklin would be a huge plus for that offense and could have a positive domino effect not just on the offense, but on the entire team.
Thoughts on Tavon Austin - is he more Desean Jackson or Ted Ginn?
More Jackson, but, contrary to what he says, he wasn't even the best wide receiver on his team last year. I've got Stedman Bailey rated higher than Austin.
What would serve the Broncos best in FA to pursue - a RB like SJax or Bradshaw, a WR like Wallace or Welker, maybe Jennings, or a TE like Cook or Bennett?
Surprised you didn't say a safety. Old RBs are a bad idea and Cook/Bennett are inconsistent. Welker would be a great add.
do you really think the eagles should be racking up on Qbs or should they be ranking up on there defense that they desperatly need. Also what do you think about revis going to the eagles
The Eagles paid a price for getting Asomugha, so the idea of going after another high-priced CB probably isn't something they will do. This draft is chock full of quality defensive depth and FA has some players who will be good values relative to their pay, so Philly may be looking to upgrade in those ways.
Colts need an upgrade on the OL. I'm determined to pick up an OT in FA. I'm signing (a) Eric Winston, (b) Sebastion Volmer, or (c) Phil Loadholt
Vollmer would win the vote here, as least as long as Indy keeps operating the type of offense they did when Arians was the OC.
Ever use a pick up line, KC?
I've been with Mrs. Scientist for over 25 years now. Haven't ever needed to use one :-)
do you believe that the eagles will be a good team this year now that thye hav chip kelly or will they be worse. Explain why or why not
Kelly will adapt to his offensive talent quite quickly (see this week's TFS ESPN Insider article on Wes Welker for more details). Whether or not they are better on D is the big question. Am thinking the adjustment period on both sides of the ball makes them an 8-8 team this year and then they get back to NFC East title contention in 2014.
I don't see the Vikings spending big money in free agency. What under the radar or 2nd tier FA WR's would be a good fit for them?
How about Brian Hartline? He's very good at short passes and quite underrated in the vertical game. Not a great add from a downfield perspective but someone who would improve the offense.
You could put up more reps on the bench press than Honey Badger, right? He's more of a 3-4 round talent than a Janoris jenkins type, right?
My bench isn't quite back to up to where it was back in the day (did some powerlifting in high school), so I'm not up to HB's level. His real value is as a punt returner who can offer some nickel/dime slot CB help.
I've heard this DL class is very deep. Where would Fletcher Cox fit if he were in this draft?
He might be hard pressed to make the top five at the position.
Why don't the Pats make a play for Mike Wallace? He would be the best they have had taking the top off of a defense since Mr. Moss.
My gut instinct is that they will make a play for Wallace but are just keeping their intentions under wraps until the last moment. He is a Deion Sanders-type of difference maker.
Goodell has come under a lot of scrutiny over the past few years what with the concussion lawsuits, bountygate, etc. I personally think he's been dealt a pretty tough hand. How would you grade him on a scale of 1-10 and are the players criticisms of Goodell more knee-jerk or warranted reactions?
It's a layered question in that how much credit/blame does he get for certain things? Take the officials lockout - the owners wanted to handle that situation in a certain way and therefore it wasn't his call. Overall, I'd give him very good grades, especially with the understanding that early on he's had a tough hand and has had to develop into being commissioner (it takes a while to do that).
i was confused by Chiefs cutting Winston. even if he was as you say inconsistent, he was still NFL caliber starter @ RT and affordable at that. did they really need the $3.5 million in cap room they saved, or am i overestimating his abilities? not to mention, this move sorta forces them to take Joeckel or Fisher, right?
The move makes the most sense if they are going to draft Joeckel, as Winston was, as you note, still an NFL caliber starter. Teams don't get rid of starting caliber players unless they have a plan for replacing them.
who does deandre Hopkins compare to in the NFL?
I've seen a bit of Hopkins tape but not enough to make a full analysis. Will be looking at more soon, so please ask this again in the near future.
What are your reasonable expectations for Houston in Free Agency? They could restructure some deals, make some cuts, but still won't have a big cap space to use... they sign their own players 1st and then wait for the scraps?
Houston is in a good position in that this year's draft and FA classes are both built to stockpile depth. That's mostly what Houston needs to do, so signing their own and then going after good depth value is probably a very heads up move on their part.
3 best front offices at player evaluation ....
Baltimore, New York Giants and Green Bay. Put them in whatever order you like, these are the top 3 IMO.
Thanks for chatting KC. So let's assume that the Saints cut the high priced veterans they have and clear a ton of cap room (around 15-20 mil right with harper, smith, and vilma?). What free agents do you see as a match and a possibility for them?
D, D and more D, especially in the front seven. Not sure they want to go all of this route in FA (lots of aging players there, especially at DT) but getting some 1-2 year fill-ins would be a big help.
How would you deploy Bernard Pierce if you were the Ravens? Ray Rice needs touches but Pierce looks special...
The Ravens have been a bell cow backfield type but Pierce has so much talent that they need to move to a lead/alternate carry division ASAP.
Is Matt Elam the second coming of Weapon X, Brian Dawkins? Are Elams metrics legit?
He's not quite big enough to be considered at Dawkins level but his metrics are definitely legit. If memory serves correct, he's been in the low 7 range in YPA, has good deep assist coverage metrics and does a very good job supporting the run.
Is P Rivers still an elite/franchise QB?
If we consider a franchise QB one who can lead a team to a Super Bowl with the right support, Rivers is one. He's not what I would consider elite level.
The saints seriously can't keep those 3 high priced veterans (vilma, harper, smith) can they? They are a huge cap hit and have underperformed the past 2 years. Which one if any do you see them keeping.
Linebackers tend to be the players who are easiest to replace (an old Al Davis theory), so Vilma would have to go. This year's draft has a lot of safety talent so if NO thinks they can land one of those players, Harper goes. Would consider keeping Smith.
Mr Scientist.....do your metrics suggest that I am the best running back in the NFL?
Short answer, yep. Going to have more about this down the road.
Do you personally favor a zone blocking scheme or man blocking?
Preference is for a line that can do both. It's a difficult thing for an offense to do both well but when they can, it makes it a whole lot harder to defend the run. If that isn't available, zone blocking would be the preference.
In a parallel universe, everything identical to this one, except that it is this year, rather than last year, that Brandon Weeden has finished with Ok State and is eligible for the draft. QB class this year shallow enough that Weeden would be #1 ranked?
Not with his age. Related note - do look for him to do better this year, as he actually held up considering the circumstances.
there seems to be an awful lot of good FAs out there, economics would say the dilution in the market will result in signings at lower prices. is this the wrong year to make top money as a free agent?
It sure is. That's part of why FAs should be considering the best fit for them rather than where they can get the most money. A good fit might mean another year or two worth of playing time down the road and that would likely more than make up for whatever extra money they might make now.
You did power lifting in high school? I'd like to get you in the ring, sir! Better QB in 2013: Brady or Manning? (Yes, the debate rages on.)
Yeah, I wasn't anywhere near Mark Henry's weight class, though. Getting back into now as much to get my eldest son into it. Manning, as Brady struggled later in the year.
All this talk about Wallace..he'd better show better than he did last season. I watched a number of Steelers games and he cost them often with drops and lazy routes. Just sayin
Reed was a much better heel in his pre-WWF days, although he was an entertaining heel while working for the McMahons. Wallace was out of synch last year but there were a lot of reasons for that (check out the TFS ESPN Insider article on his five best FA fits for more details).
Where will I be playing next season?
Let's hope in St. Louis, as that is a team on the rise and it would be great to see him be part of their resurgence.
Another Browncentric hindsight question at the buzzer, thanks. With Josh Gordon's rookie season out of the way, was he worth the 2nd round pick that the Browns won't have this year?
Not based on last year but I saw enough in his tape to think he might be worth it down the road. There is a lot to like about Cleveland's future.
so, you're saying lots of cheap FAs means my Lions will make a ton of good signings and get back to the playoffs?? Duly noted, KC!
Will consider that a prediction by Ben!
Hey, it's been a really fun hour, so many thanks to all of you for the terrific questions. Quick note before hitting the road - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks again for the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!