Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
What do the metrics say about Geno Smiths future as a pro quarterback.
At one level, they say some good things, as his YPA marks were good and his BDR was superb. At another level, they say bad things, as one can argue the WVU offense should have been stronger with him, Austin and Bailey.
Sending this in early in case I cant make the chat. Fair to say, on the field that Elam/Brown outplays last years Lewis/Reed? I know leadership, experience, yadda yadda but I am thinking Elam and Brown will do well.
Hey, thanks for sending the question in. The new combination might not be as strong in Week 1 but by season's end the change will look like a positive one. Have to play for the future, not the past.
Which Packers RB did you like better where they were picked? Lacy in round 2 or Franklin in round 4?
They are both good picks for GB, but I'm of the mindset Franklin is the better fit for that offense (and possibly the better player overall). Check out this Insider article for more info - http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/9238314/kc-joyner-montee-ball-top-fantasy-rookie-running-backs-2013-nfl-season
Is there a rookie running back better set up for success THIS year than Le'Veon Bell in Pittsburgh?
Kind of unsure how Bell will do. He's had good and bad metrics the past two years and the Steelers O line needs to gel. At the low end, he's Shonn Greene and that's not bad from a FFB perspective.
Who will be better QB Geno Smith or E.J. Manuel?
Manuel looks to be better set up to succeed today and that may have a big impact on how they perform down the line. NY's fans will turn on Smith if he starts to falter, so that's a big risk, especially since the Jets don't have ample talent around him.
Who's the better deep threat....Wallace or Lelie?
Taking some names from the past. Wallace, and look for him to do quite well this year.
Do you think Tyler Wilson can have success with the Raiders, or is he doomed?
I can't get the image out of my head of Alabama intimidating Wilson in their 2011 matchup. Want to see if he can deal with an NFL level pass rush before saying he's going to be a success.
Why do you think Bray did not get drafted?
Lack of accuracy, for one. He was an incredibly inaccurate QB last year.
Since we're talking rookie RBs, how about Montee Ball? I was surprised the Broncos picked him over Lacy, but I have heard you say that Lacy's GBYA was just ok..thoughts on Ball?
Ball was the highest rated RB in the ESPN Fantasy Football rankings summit I attended this week (more info here - http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/fflrankingssummit13/fantasy-football-rankings-summit). It's a great situation, he's proven he can produce in a power offense and he'll get plenty of goal line carries.
Hi KC - the reports on Geno Smith's team visits made it sound like there were 2 different QB's being scouted - do players present themselves differently to teams that they might not want to be drafted by?
An interesting thought. If so, it might be viewed as a warning flag for the team that ended up taking him. Smith was quite inconsistent last year, so it might also be a flag that trait cropped up again.
What did your analysis of Le'veon show? Did the Steelers get a "factor back" out of this draft?
It's a mixed bag, as he's been good and bad over the past couple of seasons (see that article for more detail). Put it this way - he's got the capacity to be a factor back, but the Steelers are going to have to get their O line in order for that to happen.
Your thoughts on Giant draft picks Justin Pugh and Damontre Moore.
Didn't see much of Pugh. Moore showed he can play in both a 4-3 and 3-4 front but he was hot/cold at times. If they can keep him motivated, it's a great pick.
Would you have taken Eifert instead of Richardson with the 13th pick?
Eifert had an 8.7 YPA last year, which is good but not great. There are too many other tight ends who can produce nearly as well, if not as well, as Eifert so picking him No. 13 overall would not be suggested.
Does Toilolo have what it takes to take over for Gonzo? Or is he just a role player?
He was an All-Pac 12 honorable mention in 2011 and his metrics the past two years were really good. Toilolo won't play ahead of Gonzo but he'll be a quality NFL TE. Great pick.
Barkley + Chip Kelly Pat Shurmur = ?
Barring injury or other major negatives (i.e. Kelly decides he really doesn't like coaching in the NFL), it's the kind of combination that can equal an NFC East title in the next few years.
Everyone seems to be jumping on the Seattle bandwagon after Russel Wilson's 1st year. Are you on that bandwagon?
Not quite as much. Teams are going to make Wilson sit in the pocket and throw and I'm not convinced he can be that type of passer.
Hi KC, I rememeber an article about CJ2K last year and how he would have a standout year, what are your thoughts about the changes to Tenn's line, and his future production?
One of the main hurdles that kept CJ from breaking out early last year was horrible playcalling. Now that they have a new playcaller and have improved the O line (the talent add there is superb), CJ should once again be a strong candidate for 1.5K.
How important was it to draft a true MLB for the Vikings? There are a few analysts saying that the upgrade at DT was more important and that the MLB position can be compensated for. What are your thoughts?
Just think of Jack Lambert. He played behind that great Steelers D line and being protected by that front helped him be the impact player he was. That is the case for any LB so upgrading DL is more important than upgrading LB.
Is this a permanent time change for your chat? The Broncos signed Shaun Phillips, he had more sacks and is younger tha Dwight Freeney...did they do ok signing this guy?
Just temporary - I was traveling back from Bristol yesterday. Should be back to the usual time slot next week. Broncos did OK with that move.
Who is the one player you were most surprised didn't go in the first round?
Te'o. But part of that had to do with the poor performance in the title game, so it was understandable as well.
Are you a millionaire?
I'm a sportswriter, not an oil baron. This isn't a business one gets into if making money is the primary goal.
I always hear age as a huge red flag not to draft guys. Tony Gonzalez - 'nother good year?
Age is a red flag but after the first six picks at TE, the value drops off in a big hurry. Gonzalez is in that top six and that overwhelms the age red flag.
How does Robert Woods (Bills 2nd Rd pick WR) project? Looks like a stud and NFL ready.
He's got Anquan Boldin-like abilities. Can be a great possession receiver but one who can also threaten a defense deep. He had subpar numbers last year but I like his NFL chances a lot.
Given the fact that Steven Jackson is now playing for a passing offense, does he have the ability to play out his 3 year contract and be effective?
Jackson was in the top 15 in GBYPA last year, so he can give Atlanta one more year. Not so sold on three years, as his career carry volume says he's probably not that far from hitting the wall.
I will be ________ this year.
If the recent article in The Onion is any indicator, he'll be spending a lot of time in an empty Ben Hill Griffin stadium wondering what could have been.
KC - throughout the draft there was a lot of commentary regarding a players ability to get out on the edge, defend end to end, etc. - are the D linemen coming out of school now better trained to play against zone read offenses than some of the current D linemen because they have much more exposure to it in the college years?
In general, they are probably most prepared to play against a spread offense that throws the ball a lot. Not sure they are prepped to play defense the way they will have to play it at the NFL level.
Are the Bears closer to a rebuilding process or a super bowl?
Tough call. Would say they are right in the middle but if pressed would say they lean a bit more in the direction of the Super Bowl.
Will Tavon Austin become a Pro Bowler multiple times?
He didn't get hit that much in college but he'll get hit in the pros. If he proves to be durable enough to handle those hits, he'll be a multiple time Pro Bowler.
The 49ers pass defense dropped off late last season and in the playoffs. After the draft, it is clear the team attributes this to the pass rush instead of the secondary. Do you agree with their assessment?
That D was entirely different once Justin Smith got hurt, so that leans in the direction of SF being spot on with that assessment.
You are skeptical of Russell Wilson, how do you feel about Colin Kaepernick? I personally think he's a gifted passer, power and surprising touch.. Are you more confident that he will ascend?
Yep. Plus, he's working in a Jim Harbaugh offense. Harbaugh is a superb playcaller and CK will benefit from that.
What did your metrics say about Jarvis Jones? Will he be starting for the Steelers by mid-season? Also, what about Woodley - he seems to have been lacking in production the past two season?
I saw bits and pieces of Jones last year. When he was on, there might not have been a more impactful pass rusher (and that includes Clowney). He should a starter very soon.
Three years down the road who is better: EJ Manuel or Ryan Tannehill?
Tannehill - he has Wallace.
What do you think of Lattimore as a prospect if he can comeback from that injury?
Big question marks for Lattimore. He's got to overcome the injury and then show he can make better open-field rushing decisions. Not sold he'll be more than a platoon back.
Hola from the Smokies. re: Tavon, he has one of the smallest catch radius', I have seen on a potential NFL receiver & Geno hit him on the move and didn't get him beat up.
Hello, Kingsport! Just saw some old pro wrestling clips that brought Kingsport/Johnson City to mind. Agree on Austin - the WVU offense protected him in some ways. NFL defenses will let him have the catch just to take a shot at him. Not sure he can hold up to that punishment.
With Greg Jennings gone, do you see a rebound for Jordy this year for the Packers? Or will James Jones out performed him again? And is Randall Cobb still the wr to own in Fantasy? Sorry for the Fantasy question!
No apologies necessary - this is an all-purpose chat! Cobb is the WR to own at GB. Nelson will rebound some and Jones will drop off (it's just hard to see him getting that many TDs again).
All the talk around here for the Pats is that with the loss of Welker and Lloyd the team has no shot at producing like they did last year. With the additions of Amendola to play a slot role like Welker did(and younger) and with drafted WRs like Dobson and Boyce, not to mention the undrafted TJ Moe, isn't it more likely that New England will produce even better with the faster and highly talent youth on this squad? And don't forget about the TEs Gronk, Hernandez, and Ballard!!
The big question is where is the vertical threat? And it isn't clear when Gronk will be ready to go. If he's not around for a portion of the season, that changes the composition of this offense. Got a feeling NE will lean a bit less on their pass game and make this more of a balanced offense.
I drank your milkshake. That's why you're not a millionaire ...
Have been wanting to watch that movie but it's like 16 hours long. Just haven't been able to break out that much time for it.
With my beloved Titans, Loggains is a Heimerdinger disciple & Dinger was one the best play designers to the run in recent history (both in Denver where he had a lot of influence in play design
If Loggains brings back those counter player Heimerdinger put together for CJ, look out - that and the upgraded O line could move Johnson into 1.5-1.8K territory. And he's going to be an RB2 in most fantasy football draft rooms.
Brady can't throw down the field anymore. When will the national media just say that Brady just dinks and dunks. I doubt the anyone in the world is worried about dobson boyce and moe...
Agree on Brady's skills dropping off a bit (wrote an Insider article about that very subject in January - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8876040/nfl-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-decline-begun).
KC, the Vikings dumped Harvin for a 1st rounder, then turned around and gave away a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th to replace him with a guy many feel will need at least a year getting to know the NFL game. There's no doubting Harvin's playmaking ability so it seems the price to get Patterson was way inflated. Aside from the salary cap relief, do you think it was a good move or could the Vikings have been better off keeping Harvin or just been patient with the picks they had without dealing in the draft? Thanks.
Not sure one move can be traded off with the other, as Harvin is a running back playing WR and Patterson is a true vertical threat. Plus, Harvin didn't want to play for Minnesota any more, so moving him might have been necessary to keep a happy locker room.
Do you see the Honey Badger meshing well with his friends in the desert based upon his experience with Peterson? Also, Does this addition and that of Minter and 1st round pick Cooper make the Cards competitive in the division now that they have a QB that could actually throw to Fitzgerald?
They are going to have Mathieu play FS (at least that's what the early reports are) and his open field skills say that's a good fit for him. It's going to take time to turn that O line around but once that happens, the Cardinals will be back to where they were early last season.
From a rocket scientist to a gridiron scientist.... what does your lab tell me about the future of Cordarelle Patterson?
Science! The I F****** love science page on Facebook is one of my favorites. Re: Patterson, depends on which metrics one leans on. If it is his physical characteristics, he's a great pick. His YPA numbers at Tennessee last year were subpar (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9163270/2013-nfl-draft-ranking-draft-top-wide-receivers), so from that perspective he might not be a ready for prime time WR.
Base on your previous response on Brady and their offense, is Ryan a better fantasy QB then Brady this year?
Good question. That wasn't the case in our composite draft rankings but a case can be made Ryan will be better. Odds are he will be rated much lower in most draft rooms, so he has the potential to be a great value pick.
Mike Vick outran Shady in a 40 yd race apparently..he may not make good decisions, but the athleticsm is still there...
Now if he can just do that on the field while avoiding hits, all will be well.
will barkley break this recent trend of underachieving USC quarterbacks?? did he land in a good place for his skill set??
Always got a kick out of the parts unknown bit. Barkley landed in a great place to break the trend and his leadership abilities will likely be the difference between him and the other USC QBs.
You did Chicago already, what about Philly? (closer to superbowl or rebuilding)
Super Bowl, but so much of that relies on Kelly's adaptation to the pros.
The Jags really did not address the QB situation at all this off season, is this just a play to set up for a prime shot at Johnny "Football" Manziel in the 2014 draft? or, Do they really believe that much in Gabbert/Henne?
The Jaguars seem to think Gabbert is a better player than is generally thought. While they may have a case metrically speaking (he's getting better, although he's still not very good overall), there is still the issue of his not being able to handle the pass rush. He gets jittery and rattled when the rush closes in and that has been a problem dating back to his college days. The rush will always be an issue and it puts a ceiling on his performance level.
Do you like Shady, Morris, Lynch or Charles as the best two RBs this year? Thanks for all your help over the years!
Hey, thanks to you for reading the articles! All Day and Foster were the top two FFB RBs in the fantasy ranking summit and that is a grade I concur with.
Super Bowl, but so much of that relies on Kelly's adaptation to the pros.And what do you think of said man's adaptation to the pros?
The fast-paced formula he used at Oregon requires rotating tons of players in and out of the game. The NFL is just too close talent-wise to allow for that type of player rotation, so he's going to have to adjust for that. Not sure it will be as effective with those adjustments.
You think Charles Johnson could be one of the steals of the draft, yet again for TT? In Ted We Trust!!!
In Ted We Trust, indeed.
Hey KC. You misunderstood my question. I meant pick two out of those four, Shady, Morris, Lynch or Charles?
Ah, let's try this again - Lynch, Shady, Charles, Morris.
You thought that Franklin would have the more productive year over Lacy. Do you see him having more rushing yards or more overall yards?
More rushing and overall yards. From a fantasy perspective, the issue is that Lacy will get the goal line carries, so he'll close the point gap and maybe even move ahead (though not by a lot of points).
Will Tavon Austin be limited to playing in the slot, or can he line up wide at times?
He's not really the type of WR who can line up in isolation situations on the outside and just beat the CB - at least not on a consistent basis. They will line him up wide at times but it will likely be when there are other receivers on that side of the field so he doesn't have to face isolation situations.
One thing on the UT WR's Bray's ball placement and ability to see the field were spotty (to be kind)
There were times last year when it was truly impossible to tell who Bray was throwing the ball to on a play. He's got a ton of talent but he needs to get it developed and teams may just not have the time/resources/roster spot necessary to allow for that development.
Is Charles a better running back under Andy and QB Alex Smith?
The Chiefs had solid run blocking last year and Charles had really good GBYPA figures, but being in an Andy Reid offense will put a ceiling on his carries. Good thing is Charles is adept in the pass game. All totaled, his FFB value will be higher this year.
What's on the menu tonight?
Mrs. Scientist just found a new meatloaf pan, so that's on the menu. Might not sound like much but she makes a killer meatloaf.
Dolphins a playoff team after a strong offseason?
How about we call them a playoff contender. Might take one more year to get them to the postseason.
Just like NE adapted some of Oregon's offense last year can you see the Eagles adapting Kelly's offense similar to the Pats (and the Jim Kelly Bills)?
Good point. It's a matter of changing from having the speed game as the central point to making it an element of the offense.
Who are the top 5 fantasy wideouts to target next season (in order)?
The summit had the following listed as the top five - Megatron, Green, Bryant, Marshall and Jones.
Well, that seems like as good of a place as any to call it a chat. Quick note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks for stopping by on Friday and I hope to see you all here for next Thursday's chat!