Good afternoon everyone! Let's get right to your fantasy baseball questions...
What are you thoughts on Erasmo Ramierez in Seattle? And is he worth a roster spot in 12 team mixed? As always thanks for the advice....
His numbers in Triple-A might look good (1.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but check his FIP (3.67) and K/BB (2.75) as reasons not to go overboard. Frankly, I was surprised that Ramirez didn't make the team out of camp, nor get promoted ahead of Jeremy Bonderman. But I think he'll be up soon. At that point, perhaps stream-worthy in 12-team mixed, but that's as far as I'll go for a guy who isn't an elite K source.
Think Rendon is the real deal? Guy has been hitting last few games.
He's not hitting for a lot of power, at least not yet, but the batting average is hardly shocking considering his history of high walk rates (double digit percentages everywhere). The instant he earns second base eligibility in our standard game -- he has four games there so far -- he's on all radar.
Sounds like Puig might be up for the season. Where does that put him in your OF rankings?
If I had the promise of Yasiel Puig being up <i>and playing every day</i> for the remainder of the year, he'd rank among my top 40 outfielders, probably even top 30. And every day that passes has me believing he will be.
Just checked my specific rankings, can't make the case for top 30. He does <i>not</i> belong ahead of the Pences and Beltrans of the world. Once they're off the board, though, we can talk.
Is Hosmer slowly starting to right the ship, or is the lack of power still concerning?
The lack of power is still a concern, not to mention the fact that his ground-ball rate still resides firmly over 60 percent -- and doesn't appear to be in decline (yet). Be happy with the greater volume of line drives, which fuel his average, but the guy plays the deepest position in the game, and 15-homer, 75-RBI performances don't mean a lot as a result.
Any update on Gyorko's groin? [Involuntary wince]
No update, latest is that he told the Padres' official website that he hopes it's "just a cramp." Sure sounds like a day-plus absence to me, but we'll see if it's more. I'd keep him in there in most cases.
What does Matt Carpenter need to do to get some respect in your rankings?
Uh, perform at something better than a 13-homer or 3-steal pace? The guy is a flat-out batting average guy, granted with a very, very minimal downside (a point I made many times in the preseason), but I can't invest in a guy whose primary contribution is a .332 batting average fueled by an unsustainable 26.5 percent line-drive rate. If he hits .280 the rest of the way, he's effectively a meaningless player in our standard game; though for the record my ranking says that I don't believe he'll wind up that bad going forward.
When will Beachy be joining the Braves?
He began a rehab assignment on May 19 and the Braves have 30 days to make a move with him, so they could push things until June 18 and be fine. And I know that's next week; my guess is that he's going to start one of the team's doubleheader games that day and then it's performance-based on a day-to-day basis as to who gets bumped.And I legitimately have no idea who that's going to be. For all we know, it could be Beachy himself.
Along the same lines with the Braves... does Teheran lose his spot when Beachy returns?
He cannot possibly lose his spot at this point. This isn't the Tony Cingrani situation; Beachy has been out longer with a more significant injury than Johnny Cueto, and Teheran has pitched well for longer, not to mention has a higher ceiling, than Mike Leake. I think Teheran's only chance at being bumped is if he tosses up a completely inexplicable stinker tonight ... in Petco of all places.
Thoughts on Dietrich ROY? Looks like its his job now with Solano being optioned to AAA.
Yes, astute transactions catch of yours, Mike. For those unaware, Donovan Solano got activated and demoted to Triple-A today, meaning the Marlins have made a clear statement that they prefer Derek Dietrich's bat. I don't blame them; he has more pop, period. Still, he's a batting average liability and I think you're looking at a 15-homer pace and NL-only low-end second base/high-end middle infield value.
Start Stanton after the layoff?
Yes, yes, yes.<i>BUT</i> ... everyone should prepare for the distinct possibility that he takes a little time to recapture his timing at the plate. His slow starts this and last year show that he sometimes needs to capture momentum, so keep it in mind if you have an abundance of quality alternatives.
Any tips on how you value draft picks in return for players? I typically just see where the relative value player is drafted, but curious if you use anything slicker...
Never be afraid to trade draft picks if the result is strengthening your championship hopes now, and do everything in your power to resist giving up an equal round for the player -- like giving up a 2013-ADP second-round pick for Stephen Strasburg.Rationale: You're effectively giving up a future resource that gets replaced by a pick at draft's end, which is a massive value drop, not to mention that if you cannot keep the player you got, then you must spend another resource (or select a potentially less-valuable player) to acquire the guy's replacement for 2013.
Think Maybin could be similiar to Brown, that is develop later than expected?
Cameron Maybin has taken a heck of a lot longer to get things going though, no? Not to mention he lacks Brown's power potential. He's more of a speedy type than a power hitter, but it's fair to think he might have another 30-35 steal year in his legs. (Even if it's not in 2013.)
You pointed out the Rangers 7 games this week in your Forecaster and mentioned Profar as a good option. Would you prefer him to Rendon & Murphy (for this week only)?
Yes. Though I am quite, quite tempted by Anthony Rendon's six-game, three-at-Coors, three-against-lefties schedule. Seven games trumps.
Is Starlin Castro going to crack your top 50 this week? He's nowhere to be found right now.
Perhaps not, he was already in decline in my rankings and he hasn't shown me much to inspire optimism. That said, about the only change I see in his game is the rising K/swing-and-miss rates. He's got a shot to fix this.
When do you begin to trust Hamels?
Confused: I never stopped. Other than the two bad outings -- both of which weren't especially good matchups -- and the ridiculous wins bad luck, he's been fine.
Maybin was great in the second half of 2011.... just saying
Well sure he was. I made that point at the time. So?
"Generic Daily Wil Myers Question" - When?
(Shrug.) I don't run the Rays. I'll point out that there have been whispers his promotion isn't imminent. I still believe it can and <i>should</i> be in the month of June.
DEEP league question: Daniel Descalso or Jayson Nix?
Descalso. Not a fan of the west-coast Yankees road trip beginning with a tough series at Oakland.
Take the Miami starts out for Hamels and he's not that good. Trust him in Coors?
I never said he's been <i>as good</i> as last year, but he has not pitched <i>poorly</i> overall. That said, the Coors point is a fair one -- I am concerned about it and would sit Hamels if I could.
"Seven games trumps"Guys on a 7-game week tend to get a day off, anyway. So it's not necessarily better than a 6-game week, with a planned day off.
They do? Last I checked, players don't usually sit 25 games. I could just as easily make the case a player with a six-game week sits once.
Please rank ROS: H. Kendrick, Profar (assuming he stays), Rendon.
"Talk to me about Jurickson Profar assuming he stays up all year" has been a very, very popular question this season. It's a completely unfair one; our job is to evaluate the player's prospect of getting at-bats as well as how he'll perform.I think it's obvious that Profar tops this list with the promise of sticking around as a starter. Because we have no such guarantee, it's the order you listed them.
How do you use the forecaster with points league? Meaning a single start great matchup versus two average matchups...
Depends upon the scoring system, you have to do your homework -- and you can surely do this by looking at our many stats pages within your league.My experience is that volume drives scoring; I'm going two-start wherever I can.
Quickly, besides Matt Moore, which players should we buy low on?
Matt Moore is not a buy-low -- at least not unless your league is populated with highly impatient people. Two bad starts? Nah. He was fantastic before that, and I might have said a sell-high!I'll take a look at some buy-lows for "Sixty Feet" this week, been getting asked that more often lately and I could do it much more justice there with a detailed list than a 30-second, top-of-my-head group of names.
Any chance Kyle Blanks turnaround can be Chris Davis lite?
Not an unreasonable comparison. Though let's not overlook that Blanks is in a much less hitting-friendly circumstance than Davis was in 2012. I'd add Blanks for sure and ride this, because if you recall 2-3 years ago, I was quite fond of him. He's got the power to do it.
thoughts on Hector Santiago ROS??Thanks.
Hey, my alma mater -- with original name, even!I like Santiago's strikeout potential, but I'm iffy on him from the durability angle for two reasons: One is that he cooled considerably late last year, the other is that these constant role changes can't be good for him. Let's say AL-only/deep-mixed (14-plus) option, someone I'd surely stash.
Gerrit Cole stick in your opinion?
It makes no sense to start his clock if the intent isn't to have him stick. I think Cole should be fine, helpful in mixed of 12 or more teams, but there will be some rough patches this year. Thinking 3.50-3.75 ERA, K's disappoint, and you'll want to be choosy with the matchups.
Which Oakland pitcher do you trust more: Colon or Milone?
<i>Trust</i> makes me gravitate -- and quickly -- to Tommy Milone.
Is Roy Oswalt worth a stash in 12 team mixed? Thanks...
No. At his age with his recent history of statistical decline and now calling Coors Field his upcoming home? No thank you.
Where's the love on your top 150? Heart broke.
Lind made my top 150. He was 135th. And ever rising.
Is Porcello a 9k/9 guy ROS like he has been lately? Can he even be a 7k/9 guy?
I said in the preseason -- I think even put this in his player profile -- that Rick Porcello had a hint of strikeout upside based upon a (albeit gradually) rising swing-and-miss rate, but even accounting for that I wouldn't have expected him to finish higher than seven per nine. I think that's his over/under.And I'll state for the record: Like Francisco Liriano with Matthew, the moment I start saying glowing things about Rick Porcello, he begins letting everyone down. You've been warned.
Any word on Wandy?
Wandy Rodriguez has one more test to pass before getting complete clearance for Thursday: He's scheduled a bullpen session today. So we'll find out shortly. I think he'll be fine.
Porcello is your fantasy kryptonite?
Not exactly. More like I'm his jinx.
can we throw some love to dexter fowler? good bet to finish as a top 10 OF? power/speed/ballpark/lineup/obp.... a lot to like from dexter
I love Fowler. He's my No. 20 outfielder in the past week's "Hit Parade" rankings. I think your top-10 expectation is somewhat unrealistic, but we're actually not all that far apart if you look closer: 18 spots difference overall between OF10 and OF20.
Trust in Wheeler more than Cole per your response above?
Yes. I admit it's mostly a personal preference thing.
Game of Thrones, amirite?
I've never seen it. I won't join a TV show's bandwagon until I know I've got enough time to get myself fully caught up on the events to date, and I just don't have time for that right now.
Leake brining it all together?
Let's point out Mike Leake's annual xFIP trend: 4.16, 3.68, 3.82, 3.75 (that one 2013). FIP is about a run lower, though, so yes, there's definitive improvement here, but he's not a major strikeout guy and for that reason I can't go all in.
would you start frazier over stanton this week?
puig for braun with a suspension looming?
Even with what Yasiel Puig has done and Ryan Braun's thumb issue threatening a possible DL stint, that is beyond a no-brainer to me. Do it now, fast.
Any concerns w/ Anibal and his balky shoulder this week? Gamble in a weekly league?
Jose Alvarez's demotion right after his spot start makes me think the Tigers believe Anibal Sanchez will be fine for his start. I've got him in my 13-team mixed points league; you should keep him in there as well.
What about Wheeler makes him your personal preference
Difficult to quantify, but one reason is that I tend to go with the higher minor league strikeout rate. I like K's from prospects.
Any idea when Corey Hart will be back? And are you expecting much when he returns? Thanks!
No, and I keep hearing the ETA being pushed back. I was as anti-Hart as I could be in the preseason, and I'm no closer to believing in him now. Not a top-150 hitter.
You mentioned on the Pod that you would dig into the stats with Trout in LF vs CF ... he's moving back to LF tonight... Concerned?
I did look into them. Last season:As LF: .326/.395/.645, 47 G, 157 PAAs CF: .329/.404/.542, 109 G, 478 PAThis season:As LF: .247/.327/.412, 22 G, 98 PAAs CF: .333/.399/.614, 43 G, 193 PAThe first thing I'd point out is the size of the latter sample, and the fact that the switch in the batting order hardly seemed to affect him. I think it's nonsense; he'll be fine in left field. And if his owners have any doubt of that, I'll be ready to swoop in and steal him away.
OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and best of luck to you this week!