Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Why is everyone so quick to give the starting job to Bradshaw? I was the man down the stretch last year and plan on being it this year.
Good question. Bradshaw did rate a bit higher than Ballard in GBYPA last year but not by enough to say he should be the No. 1 RB.
We're doing an auction draft AND introducing keepers for the first time in my work league. We're thinking 1 keeper (kept at draft value) for 3 seasons for year 1, then moving up to 3 keepers in year two. Does that sound reasonable?
What do you say chatters? The TFS thought it 3 keepers might be a bit too many in year two.
What stats would you use to argue a "who's better" between Barry Sanders and Walter Payton. I am for Barry, but always devolving into mitigating factors to support his up and down numbers.
Lots of ways to go about this. Have to put ample weight on Payton's overall achievements, so pass receiving has to be a big part of the equation.
$200 auction budget - who's the better keeper: kaepernick for $15 or lamar miller for $7? thanks!
Hard to say without knowing more about the other QB options but in a vacuum, a starting RB like Miller (or shall we say he'll likely be the starting RB) is worth more than a starting QB.
Do you think that Bernard Pierce will get close to 40% of the total carries in Baltimore this year? If so is 800 yards and 7TDs out of the question.
If there are 350-400 carries for the RBs, 40 percent would put him in the 140-160 range. Could definitely see that happening.
KC!! love your fantasy guide!! My question is about the Jets' guards. While I am not saying that Sanchez was not horrible last year I really do believe a big part of it was that he seemed to be always running for his life. Do you think there are 2 decent guards from Colon, Petermen, and Winters?
Thanks! I'm hip deep in working on this year's guide and can't wait to get it complete. Got some really cool metrics this year. Just got through working on the Jets and Sanchez's numbers in many ways actually weren't as bad as one might think. The lack of up the middle blocking was a big issue and, new adds considered, it still could be an issue in 2013.
As usual your chat makes my week with that said i dont know if i missed it but when does the guide come out
Aiming to have the guide out in early July.
Related note - the guide is on sale at pre-order pricing at www.thefootballscientist.com (save 33%). Only site plug of the chat.
We only get three keepers and I have RGIII ($14), Jamaal Charles ($11), Calvin Johnson ($35) and Marshawn Lynch ($19)...I am thinking about throwing Calvin back due to his price tag...Thoughts???
Completely agree. Charles and Lynch are must keeps at those prices and RG3 has the kind of upside that warrants keeping him even though the QB position will be very deep in FFB this year.
What are you're thoughts on Nick Foles as the Eagles starting QB? I liked what I saw last year but feel like I'm in the minority among Eagles fans. Just can't take another year with Vick.
There was a lot to like. His BDR was solid sans a couple of rough patches and he did a fairly good job on downfield throws.
EJ manual was on the air during a blue jays game here in Canada yesterday and was just smitten with Robert Woods even before they got drafted to the bills, Can you see a woods having the better year than stevie johnson?
Woods is more of a dink/dunk receiver than Johnson, so he probably won't best him in yards or big plays. Could get close in the area of total receptions, though, if all works well.
follow-up: all but brady, rodgers, manning, brees and rg3 will be available for drafting. still miller?
Still Miller. RBs are even more scarce this year than usual.
Where does the RB1 tier end this season? Would you go RB-RB or try to grab a WR1 in Rd. 2?
Good to see Punk back and to see him get the win over Jericho. Even with the face turn, my youngest son still can't stand him, however. RB1 tier goes all the way through the first round and about halfway through the second round in 10-team leagues. Would take a RB as 1-2 as long as the second pick was within pick 15 or so.
I am able to keep either Chris Ivory or TY Hilton for a 10th round pick. Who holds the better value? Will Ivory be the starter for the jets this year? Thank you!
It's up in the air as to if Ivory will be the starter but it's almost certain he won't be the bell cow. Hilton is a WR3 with WR2, and maybe bottom-end WR1, potential. Right now the pick would be Hilton because of the Ivory unknowns but that could change to Ivory very quickly if it looks like he'll get a solid workload.
Whats the worst scientific evidence that could go against hernandez? fingerprints, dna, gsr, etc?
I'm not that kind of scientist :-)
Can you rank Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory and Montee Ball for a .5PPR league?
Ball, Miller and Ivory. There is a thought Ball won't be used as much in Denver because of his pass-blocking ability but the thought here is that he will work on that part of his game and will be the bona fide starting RB for the Broncos.
What is julio jones ceiling? Up with Megatron as the best?
Absolutely. Only issue is Atlanta isn't going to throw the ball 700 or more times and that's a big part of Megatron's value in Detroit.
To the question from Rob (Frankfort IL), Megatron >>>>>>> Wallace, RGIII, Charles, and Lynch. Combined.
Got to think Doug would actually agree with that.
Where does WR1 tier end?
It's not as clear as the RB tier. Would say there are going to be 15-20 blue or green-rated WRs this year.
Does Bernard Pierce and all the carries scare you on Ray Rice at all? Would you trade him for DeMarco Murray in a keeper? Rice costs a 1st and Murray and 8th...
It is a concern but Murray's history is even more of a concern. Unless that trade-off of picks leads to a RB who would be of equal value to Rice at his typical performance level, it's just not worth the deal.
What are your thoughts on Randall Cobb. Flash in the pan or stud?
Stud. Only concern is Green Bay probably won't ever target him at the level of the high-end WRs.
I won my 12 person, 2 keeper league last year, keepers are first two rounds. I will be keeping Brady and AJ Green, have no RB's worth keeping, best ones were Reece and Murray. I also pick 12th because I won. I know you can't tell who will be kept, but im guessing I'll have to RB RB with my first picks right? Who do you think I could expect to be there assuming the top 24 ranked uys get kept...think Spiller will be there for me?
Can't see Spiller making it down that far. This might be a case where you are drafting a tandem like Lacy/Franklin in GB. Could think a number of the platoon backfields will be available, so it might behoove to aim to acquire two tandems of that caliber.
What do you expect from the Saints? Sean Payton back - does he stick with Sproles or is Ingram due for a big year? Best WR?
Sproles will always be a central element of that offense but he can't be the bell cow. Would think Payton's return will get a bit more balance in the offense (Brees got especially stat-happy last year), as they need to do whatever they can to protect that horrible defense.
Will the return of Tampa Bay's stud OGs drastically improve their good blocking %?
Absolutely. They were among the bottom five run blocking groups in my recent ESPN Insider article on good/bad blocking teams and a lot of that was due to the injuries. Just think how much upside Martin has if that O line gets turned around.
Thoughts on Ridley this season? Can we match last year's production with the issues at receiver and tight end? Is Vereen a necessary handcuff?
Thoughts would be that NE is going to lean more on their run game than they have in past years. If they do that while still using the fast-paced system they used in 2012, it could once again lead to 500 team rush attempts. If that happens, Ridley should get 300 of those. Vereen could get in the range of 100, so he would be a very good, if not quite necessary, handcuff.
Is there anyway that JJ Watt can actually replicate last year's season? Did he get lucky as pass rusher/run defender or can Houston fans be optimistic going forward?
One has to think that opposing teams are going to figure out some of Watt's techniques and counter them this year. For instance, if he is going to keep mush rushing and then dropping off of the line to try to knock down a pass, he's just asking for a team to start running creative draw plays against him. O linemen will also look to hit him in the gut more often to keep his arms down.
When you break down GB% on running plays, do you also keep track of which OL missed their blocks? Would be nice to have an idea of weak links on every OL.
That is part of the process. Am aiming to produce some material along those lines, but it might have to wait until 2013 (got some other material in front of it).
How do you envision Bill Belichick utilizing Tim Tebow to beat down the Jets? Because we all know BB will seek to do humiliate Rex Ryan, despite his not saying so....
Tebow will be the scout team QB for read-options. He'll be used as a short yardage QB (to save wear and tear on Brady) and they will get creative with him at the goal (think back to the jump passes at Florida). Could also see some special teams use.
So I doubt your jumpin back on that Matt Schaub sleeper bandwagon like last year (I thought so too), & while not gonna draft him this year - With DeAndre at #2WR + 3 2ndyr WRs developing - how do you think Schaub does for Houston in 2013?
He won't make the sleeper level because Houston just isn't going to throw the ball enough to warrant that ranking. Having said that, he'll be a very good low-end QB2, especially if those alternate receiving options start panning out.
Doug makes a very good point and it's tough to even consider throwing Calvin back...However, with that $35 price tag it makes sense to drop him and pay to get him back...
That's a very good point. Could be that the overall price impact is worth it.
Please don't cut your chat short today; I look forward to yours more than any other each week, and the last 2 weeks have not sated my appetite!!
Hey, just keep the questions coming! Glad to stick around for the full hour :-)
Tight Ends - after Graham, Gronk, Gonzalez, Witten, who do you like? Myers for the NYG as a possible sleeper?
Good call on Myers. NY has done a superb job with lesser talents than Myers and he could end up as a true TE1 by the time all is said and done.
Why do people think Sam Bradford is good?
During the first few weeks of his NFL career, he played as well as any rookie QB I've seen in 10 years of breaking down tapes. That and his Oklahoma days show just what kind of ceiling he has. If they can give him some stability at WR, Bradford should be able to get back to those days.
KC, Newton and Stafford seemed to fail to meet their lofty expectation last year. What do you expect from them this year?
A lot of people talk about Newton having a breakout year this season but I'm not quite seeing that. He's not progressing on many fronts and defenses are going to take advantage if that doesn't change. For Stafford, Detroit needs to take some pressure off of him. Can't win in the NFL when throwing over 700 passes a year.
Is it crazy to think I may have a career season this year with an improved OL and a QB friendly head coach? Top-8 potential?
Unless Cutler decides to finally start working on his mechanics and becoming a better game manager, he's going to be the same QB he's been in the past. Just not sure he wants to do what is necessary to correct those issues.
Outside of Amendola, is there a WR on NE that Brady will be looking for this year?
The WR/TE situation in NE just keeps getting worse and worse. They'll develop someone but all in all it looks like Brady could be starting the season with a personnel impediment.
Follow up to your Stafford comment about throwing 700 times, does that mean Reggie Bush would be a good pickup? If so, what round would you target him and will he be the bell cow?
Really like Bush as a potential sleeper candidate. Got him pegged as a round 2 RB (if he makes it to round 3, he's a bargain).
PPR 3 keepers: Aaron Rodgers $18, Trent Richardson $29, Stevan Ridley $1, AJ Green $16 or Demaryius Thomas $1. Decisions, decisions. YES, YES, YES. NO, NO, NO
My kids will get a kick out of this question - they are huge Daniel Bryan fans! Keep Ridley and Thomas for $1 and Richardson at $29. You should be able to get similar value for Rodgers and Green elsewhere.
Could Adrian Peterson be considered the best back of all time when his career is over?
If he can come close to replicating last year for another season or two, the case can then start to be made.
Do you feel Buffalo might be a playoff contender this year?
Yep. They have a great run game (best GBR in the league last year) and the rest of their offense can keep them at a top 10 overall level on that side of the ball. They'll need to get better on D but it's not out of the question they can do that.
Thoughts on Dwayne Bowe in his first season in Andy Reid's offense? We are only a few seasons past his top-2 finish.
Alex Smith was a near top-10 vertical passer in SF. Reid will get that kind of performance out him and that will vault Bowe into maybe his best season in the NFL.
Considering your comments on Jason Garrett's 2012 playcalling, how will Bill Callahan taking over playcalling duties effect the Cowboys offense?
There's a long-form answer to this but the nutshell is Callahan will likely try to get more out of Romo's risk taking ability. Garrett tried to mute Romo's risk taking and while that did help in some ways, it hurt in others.
In a league with a $200 auction budget, Megatron >>>>>>> $199.
I just hope Doug reads this and has a comeback either this week or next.
I forgot to mention we start 2 QB's. Does that change the answer???
YES, YES, YES! Keep Rodgers over Thomas.
Do you see any value in the Eagles WR corps?
Absolutely. Thing to remember about Chip Kelly is he has a history of altering his offense to get the best utilization of talent. He's going to call for a lot of targets for the Philly WRs.
Does Victor Cruz put the contract situation behind him and have a solid season? 1200 yards 10 tds?
That situation did see to really bother him. Think he's the type of player who reacts better to stability than he does to contract chaos. Like his chances of reaching those numbers.
Is it true the Raiders are moving away from the zone blocking scheme for DMC? In what round would you consider McFadden a "must draft"?
He's got RB1 talent if all goes well but he looked more like a RB3 or RB4 last year. Given the lack of depth at RB, if he made it to round 9, he would be a must draft.
Everyone who faced Watt knew EVERYTIME what he was doing - & still couldn't stop him... craziest part is that he was THE ONLY player the opposing offense had to plan against after JJo's injuries
Very true. Difference could be teams have a full offseason to plan for his game rather than a short amount of pre-week PT (which is harder to come by under the new CBA).
How many QBs are in your top tier for this year?
Still finalizing the grades. Am thinking there will be five blue-rated QBs and maybe as many as 6-8 green-rated QBs.
Hello KC, which of the breakout quarterbacks of last year (Luck, RG III, Russell Wilson, and Kaepernick) do you see possibly moving a step back and who do you see continuing to shine?
Wilson would top that list. He's still not shown he can pilot a pass-first offense and defenses are likely to try to put him into that situation as often as possible in 2013.
In Fantasy, good RBs can be the product of a great O-Line. Are there any teams with a great O-Line, but an unknown RB? Maybe STL or MIA? In fantasy, not enough credit is given to the big boys in the trenches.
In that aforementioned TFS ESPN Insider article on O lines, Miami ranked in the top 5 in GBR. Whoever wins the battle for carries for the Fins will have a lot of fantasy value both from a quality and quantity perspective.
Will RG3's ridiculously low number of turnovers carry over into year 2, with a more complex offense and teams preparing for the read op?
He was a pass-first QB at Baylor, so I've got a lot of faith he will successfully make the transition to a pocket-based game. Might be some rough spots this year during that transition but let's not lose faith in RG3 over a bad game or two.
Can you explain the relevance of 2016 Power Rankings?
Sure. Fans are frequently wondering what the long-term prospects are for their team. These rankings aim to address that subject.
Hi KC, what kind of ratings are Dolphin WRs Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline likely to earn from you?
Hartline will likely be a yellow-rated player on the borderline of a green rating. Wallace will be a solid green-rated player with blue-rated upside potential.
Hey, it's been a really fun chat! Thanks a ton for all of the interesting questions. Couple of quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Links to the material are also posted on www.thefootballscientist.com. The 2013 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is on sale for pre-order prices at that same site. Thanks again and I hope to see you all here next week!