Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
KC-Do you see Danny Woodhead overtaking Ryan Mathews even if Mathews is healthy? I have heard reports that San Diego is loving what Danny is bringing to the table.
The issue for Woodhead would be how many carries/receptions can he handle? That number would probably top out around 200-250, so at best he could be the lead in a lead-alternate backfield. Got to think it most likely will be a platoon situation instead.
KC - I have the number 1 pick in a 14 team standard keeper league and Rice, McCoy, and Charles will be available. Which direction should I go. Also, I need to keep either David Wilson or Luck.
Would take Charles first out of those three. Keep Wilson, as the QB position is very deep and therefore a Luck replacement can be found easier than a Wilson replacement.
If Danny Amendola stays healthy for 14+ games, can he be a top 10 WR in Brady's offense?
Can see top 20 in that instance but to be a top 10, a WR has to have more vertical skills than Amendola brings to the table.
Am I crazy for wating to trade Drew Brees for Romo and Montee Ball? I have David Wislon as rb #2 and am nervous there.
Not crazy at all. Romo isn't that far behind Brees and Ball will be a starting caliber RB, which will be a rare commodity this year (rarer than most years).
Afternoon, KC. I'm in a 12-team keeper league with M. Ryan and D. Thomas under locks and $175 in budget (of $200) for the draft thanks to a trade. I'm currently planning on drafting a Top 5 RB1 since Foster and Rice are available, but I'm unsure about RB2. I could keep Charles at $42, SJax at $29, or take a shot at drafting a guy like McCoy/Forte/Chris J. I know it's probably a bit out of context still, but any thoughts would be much appreciated! Thanks a ton!
The quick answer would be to bid on one of those three. The long form answer would require a bit more info.
am I crazy for taking t rich as early as pick #3?
Like T Rich's chances (he's capable of posting much better numbers than his already solid fantasy total from 2012) but No. 3 overall might be a bit of a reach. Wouldn't go so far as to call it crazy, though.
Can we believe in David Wilson and Cecil SHorts thsi year?
Wilson, yes. Shorts, maybe. Just not so sold on Jacksonville's QB situation.
Hello! (this is what you told me to do on Twitter, so I did it. Aren't I a great Twitter follower?)
Well, that is technically what the Twitter post said, isn't it?!
I am in round three and need a rb #2. Who is safest out of D Wilson, L Miller or Montee Ball?
Ball, but only by a slight margin. Any of the three should be a safe RB2.
Alright, my idiot brother in law is all sauced up and wants to trade Cecil Shorts and James Jones for Stevie Johnson and Anquan Boldin? Take him while he's weak??
He might be sauced up and weak but that's a pretty even deal. Like Shorts/Jones upside potential better than Johnson/Boldin, though, so it's probably a deal worth making if you will be getting Shorts/Jones out of the deal.
Thoughts on Ivory this year? Possible RB2?
He had good GBYPA marks last year (small sample size) and the Jets run blocking was actually pretty solid last year. Low-end RB2/high-end RB3.
Are you a believer in David Wilson???
In a word, yes. He might not end up as the bell cow but he'll be half of a strong platoon at the very least, and that's especially valuable this year.
Do you like the upside of Levon Bell over Demarco Murray?
Absolutely. Murray has injury issues, a battle for carries and the Dallas O line questions. Bell has potential pass blocking issues but those are easier to correct than Murray's issues.
Is there any way Ridley loses enough steam to Vereen (minus Gronk) to warrant him in RB #2 territory? Vereen in the 7th a reach?
Still got Ridley as a RB1. Vereen in the 7th would probably not be a reach given the dearth of RB talent, but it might not be the best move depending on the league structure.
Peyton Manning go crazy this year? 5000 yds and 40 td's realistic?
Problem for Peyton is that Denver has such a strong team that it is likely he will be passing to get the Broncos a lead and then handing the ball off to finish the game. Can't see him hitting those numbers given those variables.
OK - so I did bring actual questions, but wanted to have some fun first!Are you also aboard the "wait on QB" train this year? I've done a few mock auctions where I have landed Romo or Eli for a few bucks and feel like that is a steal. Do you see a bounce back year from Eli at all?
Humor is always welcome in this chat! Count me in on the wait on QB train. Too much talent there, especially when compared to the RB talent level.
I have the #6 pick and am usually forced to decide between Charles, Spiller, and Richardson. I plan on going RB-RB for the first two rounds, which RB do you like the most out of the three?
Charles wins out of that group. Just think he's going to have a fantastic season in the Reid offense.
Can Alfred Morris keep it up? Shanny.......
Yeah, it's Shanny but Shanny does have a history of leaning on a RB if he knows he can count on that RB to hold up under a heavy workload. Morris looks like he can be that back.
Hey KC, Happy 4th! Based on your statistical models, what are the odds a team can be successful selecting QB?s based on matchup. For instance my league ($200 10 team Auction, 1 QB) I have been tossing around spending under $5 for 3 qbs this season. And starting the one that is playing the ?softest? pass defense. So, is it probable that I could still win? Thanks!
Happy 4th to you and everyone in the chat! Long-form question. Short-form answer is it is likely two mid-range QBs (think QB2) can offer nearly as much value as a high-end QB1. The production should be close enough that the increased RB production that would be found would more than offset it. In other words, go for it.
Hello KC, do you think Dwayne Bowe will have a big year in KC?
In a word, yes. Big question is if he will have as big of a year as everyone seems to be expecting him to have (he seems to be the early candidate for consensus upside pick of the year so far). Not sure that will happen but he'll be a slam dunk WR1.
KC, how bad does the 4 game suspension hurt Josh Gordon's stock this season?
I'm sorry, 2 game suspension.
Taking away 1/6 of a player's regular season value is a big deal, especially since the WR position is pretty stocked this year. Got to think it moves him to WR3/flex territory, but at the high-end of that territory.
Would you feel ok with Ridley and David Wilson?
Yep. Might want to have a handcuff for at least one of them but all in all that would be a solid RB corps for this year.
'Sup, KC? How hung over are you right now?
Hey, I'm in draft guide crunch time right now. No hangover here, as I can't afford any down time!
Is V-Jax a viable wr#1 this year with Freeman struggling?
Jackson is definitely a WR1. He's had fantastic metrics the past two years even when his QB's performance has been so-so. He might be a low-end WR1 given the QB question mark but he's too talented to rate as a WR2 unless Freeman completely falls apart.
Lamar Miller, Levon Bell or G Bernard as wr #3? I love Bernards upside but am thinking Miller?
Like Miller as a RB3 but like Bell even more. Just think the Broncos offense is going to give him a boatload of GL chances.
1500 yds and 10 td's for Megatron? Wishful thinking? Stafford looked awful last year at times.
Good eye on Stafford. Bad news for Megatron is the Lions are not going to want to throw the ball 700 times again this year. If that number falls to 600 (which would be a good thing for that team), Megatron's target volume will drop accordingly. Just can't see a repeat of last year, although 10 TDs and 1.3K seems likely.
Alright here we go....I drafted Hernandez in the 5th a few weeks back. I can scrounge up Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels or take a chnce with the guy in Cleveland. Who you liking here?
Would probably say Olsen if only because he seems to be a favorite target for Cam. It's a toss up but either should be a solid TE1 and there are slim pickings for TE1 this year.
Ryan Matthews is the devil. You heard it here TFS.
A lot of Mathews 2012 FFB owners are thinking the same thing...
Was offered L. Bell for Demarco Murray. You biting on that?
Absolutely. Would much rather have Bell than Murray. Bell is a great GL back and Denver's offense will give him a ton of GL opportunities.
Does Sara Walsh get a spot at the big boys fantasy league table at ESPN this year?
No idea. Heck, I'm waiting for my spot at that table!
Whats Mrs. TFS cooking up tonight?
Funny thing - Mrs. Scientist is getting the night off from cooking because my eldest son is taking over the cooking duties for the evening. He's making homemade pizza.
Ha, love the Sara Walsh question. You would reighn supreme over Berry with your metrics!!
Hey, not so sure about that - Berry's a helluva FFB owner. Speaking of him, check out his new book Fantasy Life. Got an advanced copy of it and can say it is a fantastic book. It'll remind you of why you got into fantasy football in the first place - because it's a fun way to spend time with friends.
I assume you don't mean the Broncos when your answering your questions about L.Bell not ball????
My mistake on that one - a downside of trying to answer the questions as fast as possible.
Still would rather have Bell over Murray. Bell or Ball, they both rank over him :-)
You know Ball is on the Broncos, not Bell, right?
OK, guys, no need to dog pile this.
How would you feel about taking Brees in the bottom of the second round in a ten team league?
He's one of the few QB1s who would be worth taking with a second-round pick.
Should I take demarco Murray or Felix jones?
Would take Murray in that case. Just don't trust the Cowboys to trust Jones full-time again.
would you be comfortable with Romo as your starting Qb?
As long as he was a later-round pick, absolutely. Getting a QB of that caliber late is a sensible move.
fantasy is for nerds... true story.
People like this miss out on all of the fun...
Following for years KC, keep up the great work! Keeper league question. 3 keepers, .5 PPR, no restrictions on keeping and no loss of draft pick (weird to me, but first time as a keeper for this league)... choices are Demaryius Thomas, S. Jax, Alf Morris, Ridley and... Luck. Pretty sure I'm tossing Luck as I can get him later on if I choose. What to do!? I hate losing Thomas, but having those 3 RB's is pretty tempting. Help!
It's tough losing Thomas but, assuming this league has a flex position, having three RBs of that caliber will be a huge plus. The .5 PPR makes it close but the vote here would be to keep the RBs and find a Thomas replacement in the redraft.
Do you know who's better than Mike Wallace?
Just had to get this post in - it keeps the string of Doug Mike Wallace posts going strong at something like 10 weeks.
Who do you see benefitting the most with their metrics with Hernandez gone and Gronk ailing in NE?
The running backs, for one. Tough part there is NE ran the ball 500 times last year because of their fast-paced offensive approach and the odds are likely they will slow things down a bit this year. Got to think Amendola will also see more targets.
KC, in a keeper league when is the best time to consider trading an aging player? Lets use Brees for instance (not that he is old).
Studies over the years have shown that 28 is roughly the time when players play their best. They also tend to drop off at age 35. Thinking long-term, if a player is closer to 35 than is to 28, and you can get someone with enough long-term value in return, that's the time to make the trade.
Second rule of thumb - trade RBs when they reach 1,500 career carries. Historically speaking, only half of them make it to 2K carries.
Manning for Cam straight up. Fair deal?
Which Manning? Assuming it's Peyton, fair deal.
How can you get a boring public league juiced up about trades? I have some very fair deals, not crazy deals that haven't even been acknowledged by the other team.
Probably all boils down to the commish finding a way to engage the league. Active commish can make it happen.
I love Bell and Ball both, could be another great year for rookie RB's !!
Can Mark Ingram ever get it together in NO?
Breakout time for Mark Ingram?
This could be the year for Ingram in that NO is going to go all out to protect that historically bad D (they gave up more yards than any team in NFL history last year). That means running the ball even if stat-happy Drew Brees doesn't want to.
Who is your top sleeper and bust this year?
Check out the ESPN Draft Kit. It has an article that details top sleepers and busts and the TFS picks are there. One of the choices for sleeper - Carson Palmer.
Will James Jones be a viable wr #3 or will he nosedive like Jordy in 2011?
Jordy still had really good metrics in 2012 but his fantasy value plummeted because he didn't score as many TDs. Got to think that will be the case for Jones but all in all he's still probably a good low-end WR3.
I'm looking at keeping MJD, Ridley, and D.Wilson for 34% of my cap. Like it or too much?
Not sold on MJD, so that might be a bit much.
have you drafted most of your teams yet?
Nope. Crunching out the last week and change of completing the 2013 TFS Draft Guide, so very little time to spare on anything outside of that.
So as a Brees keeper owner are you suggesting I look to trade him this year or next year being he's 34. Thanks
Yep, as long as the return value is similar. Aim to trade with someone who is thinking short-term (i.e. Brees today) and try to get something long-term (young WR or RB) in return.
Can Steve Smith keep it up? You have to love that dudes heart.
He's got target volume and a QB who isn't afraid to throw deep. Got to think he's still in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 range.
Who is the most valuable RB handcuff? I know Tate is a popular pick for Foster owners, but I've been drafting Vereen late to go with Ridley...
You mean who is the best RB handcuff in the world? Big time Punk fan here. Vereen wins over Foster if only because that could turn into more a lead/alternate situation than is likely in Houston.
Any RB's come to mind you would shoot for? Charles? Someone else? Rb 1's are a need for me.
Charles would be a terrific choice. He only has 784 career carries, so he's got at least 3-4 years as a full-time starter left from that perspective.
What do you expect out of Cruz this year ?Seems to be in early to mid teens on most rankings.
Thoughts on Cruz are that he let that contract situation get to him last year. With that now taken care of, he should get back to something closer to the 2011 Cruz.
Does Bryce Brown scare you if your a Lesean McCoy owner?
Yes and no. Brown had a top-5 mark in GBYPA last year but he also fumbled the ball a lot. Think he'll be a very good alternate in a lead/alternate backfield.
Hey KCJ! What do you think is the ETA on the draft guide? Really looking forward to another excellent year! Also, what tight ends outside the top 5 do you like to out perform their draft position?
Hey there! Going to be writing a post on the TFS website (www.thefootballscientist.com) about that right after the chat. Nutshell - we're probably looking at another 10-14 days or so (new metrics are taking some time to get through). Myers is a very good upside TE.
Where can we get your draft guide?
It's available for a pre-order discount price at www.thefootballscientist.com. It's the 10th annual edition and I'm aiming to make it a memorable one!
Who leads all fantasy points this season? I say Brees or Manning.
Would probably vote for Manning.
Cool on the pizza from your son. Great times.
He's a pizza guy alright - can eat an entire frozen one all by himself. It's his way of tapping into his Italian roots.
Myers more upside than Jared Cook at TE? marty B in Chi-town?
Myers/Cook are pretty even - Cook has more talent but Myers is in the NY offense that knows how to get top-flight productivity out of TEs.
Thanks again for a great chat TFS. You Da man.
The chat is only as good as the questions and you guys brought the heat today! Really appreciate it. Before hitting the road, do want to mention that the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The draft guide is still available for the pre-order discount price for a bit longer at www.thefootballscientist.com. Thanks again for all of the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!