Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
KC - Anxiously awaiting the guide - Got to get this one answered sooner than I expect the guide - can you rank these RB's for a PPR Format (Redraft & Dynasty)? Thanks - L Miller/D Wilson/M Ball/L Bell/G Bernard. Does one of them stand out more than the other 5?
Working hard to get the guide out the door. Looks like it will be out some time next week. Quick answer on that - Wilson, Ball, Miller, Bell and Bernard. Might change upon further review.
How much of Alfred Morris' success hinges on RGIII's threat to run?
It's all about controlling the backside pursuit on the slant/stretch plays. As long as the defense thinks RG3 is a threat, even if he isn't going to run, Morris should be fine.
With Hernandez out and Gronk ailing, will Vereen hurt Ridleys metrics or will Ridley recieve an even larger chunk of the pie? Thanks.
NE is likely to use Ridley as the bell cow and use Vereen as the pass receiving back. Vereen may get more targets due to the TE issues but he likely won't vulture too many of Ridley's carries.
Does Matt Stafford find the endzone more this season? How does Reggie Bush affect the Lions offense?
Bush had a very high GBYPA last year and Detroit's run blocking was better than might generally be thought. Wouldn't be surprising to see him have a very good season. There are a number of reasons for Stafford's TD numbers, some of which are situationally-based, so they could improve even if his attempt volume drops.
Worst QB you personally would feel ok starting in a 12 team league? Please don't say Romo, please don't say Romo...
Since Romo is out of the equation, how about Roethlisberger?
Would you swap David Wilson for Demarco Murray?
Nope. Like Wilson's upside much more than Murray's.
BJGE or Benard???
Still on the BJGE bandwagon, at least as long as it looks like he will get the GL carries. They aren't likely to make Bernard a bell cow and BJGE in a platoon backfield with GL carries is a solid fantasy RB.
In a 2 qb league is it more important to draft rb's or qb's in the first few rounds.
QBs account for more points in those leagues but RBs still probably outrank QBs in that there are about 15 starting caliber RBs and 20 starting caliber QBs.
Scientist my man! It has been too long since I have been able to read one of your chats live. I have the allegedly healthy Miles Austin as a major WR sleeper this year. Am I onto something or being blinded by his one great year? Thanks.
Great to have you back in the chat! Like Austin as a sleeper. His health will be an issue and he has to hope Williams can contribute from day one, but if those both fall into place, his metrics say he's still a top-flight WR.
Is Alfred Morris a RB #1? Images of T Davis and C Portis dancing in my head........
Absolutely an RB1. Especially this year when RB depth is so thin.
If you don't end up with Jimmy Graham, would you wait on TE and be one of the last to grab one? Any sleepers you recommend?
I took part in an ESPN experts mock draft a few days ago and there were solid, starting-caliber TEs on the board very late in the draft. Guys like Myers, Daniels, etc. If you don't get Graham, TE is a position a team can wait to fill this year.
Not worried about David Wilson's issues - namely Andre Brown, pass protection issues and the staff's willingness to bench him?
Not really. He may not end up being the bell cow or the lead in a lead/alternate backfield but if he can be a strong platoon back, he's a solid fantasy starter.
Would you have a warm fuzzy feeling with S. Ridley and D Murray or L Bell as your rbs? Thanks TFS. Whats for dinner tonight? How was Pizza last week with your son?
Ridley is the best of that bunch, as he has fewer issues than the other two. Pizza was superb - my eldest is racking up experience in making them from scratch.
Am I out of my mind to trade James Jones for Cecil Shorts? Need a wr #3 behind Megatron and V-Jax.
Shorts is a very good WR but stick with the WR who has Rodgers throwing him the ball. Just can't trust Gabbert that much.
Thanks for taking my Miles Austin question. Quick follow up: why does he need Williams to contribute from day 1? I thought Dwayne Harris was a serviceable, if unspectacular, 3rd WR. No?
Williams is important because he would offer that outside WR presence that would let Austin move to the slot in 3 WR sets. That's some of Austin's best value.
I plan on taking AP with the #1 pick, but what do I do with the 20th? WR is deeper, but RB may be picked clean by then. 1ppr for TE/WRs and .5 for RBs.
The WR/TE/QB depth is strong enough this year that it is possible to wait to get those players in later rounds. Go RB unless there is a slam dunk player at one of those other positions still available (e.g. if Megatron for some reason happened to make it down that far).
Can you go all in on P Manning as a 3rd rd draft pick in a ten team standard league?
Can't quite go all in, as QB depth this year is ridiculously deep. Got Ryan in the 6th round of that ESPN mock and could have picked up Romo in round 9.
Hey KC, with TE being so thin this year, what do you think about Jermichael Finley as a late round selection in a 10 team standard scoring league?
Depends on what is meant by late round. If it's the last 3-4 rounds of the draft, that's a go.
Hey KC, have a tough decision to make and your advice would be greatly appreciated. Keep 3 (.5 ppr) - Spiller (5), Sproles (10), Cruz (11), Kaepernick (12), Lamar Miller (12), Gronk (13). Thanks a lot
Stick with the RBs. Only caveat would be if there aren't many QB prospects left, then keep Kaepernick over Miller.
Wo are your sleepr tight ends? Cameron or Marty B?
Been pitching Myers. Just think the Giants are going to get a lot of usage out of him.
I just traded Trent Richardson via an off-season keeper league trade. Is he a green or blue chip player and how will his season look if he stays healthy? Thanks.
Richardson will rate as a green-rated player in this year's draft guide. He's got blue-rating potential but just isn't there yet.
Quick note on the draft guide - it's fast moving towards completion and should be sent out next week. It will be available for a pre-order discount for just a short while longer at www.thefootballscientist.com. Only site plug of the chat.
I think Jared cook is going to have a great year am i wrong?
Jeff Fisher does know how to get productivity out of a TE and Bradford is a very underrated QB. Like Cook's upside, especially considering his draft value is apt to be quite low.
Hey KC, big fan of yours. Thanks for the chats. I have roughly $100 of my $200 draft budget already set aside for AP, Charles, and Dez as keepers. With the other $100 remaining, where do you think I should prioritize?
Hey, thanks for sending the question! In a vacuum, the priority should be getting a third RB (assuming this is a league with a flex player). After that, it's WR and then value picks from then on out.
Is Gio Bernard worth a roster spot over Shane Vereen or Mark Ingram?
Would give him a spot over Ingram. Less crowded backfield in Cincy.
Will JJ Watt keep getting away with using a swim move on run plays or are teams going to start punishing him for him taking so many risks?
Let's say this is the IDP portion of the chat. Good eye on Watt - teams are going to start making him pay for the way he plays. Can't see him putting up quite as good of numbers as he did last year.
How scary is the Falcons offense? Turner was so unbelievably bad last yr, the thought of Jackson gets me excited. How will teams defend?
A good portion of the blame for last year's run game woes in Atlanta fall on their blockers. They had a very low GBR. If they can improve that even just a bit, the offense could be scary good.
Hey KC, just hoping you could discuss the NO backfield situation. Do you see Sproles regaining the consistency he had in 2011 or are those days behind him. Thanks.
Got to think NO will have a bit more balance in their offense this year, as they have to do all they can to protect the defense. That should mean more use of RBs and that leans in Sproles favor.
Ridley or the guy they got from JAX, Blount? Sorry if already asked, late as usual.
Blount's got talent but Ridley's only usage is as the hammer RB. Wouldn't be surprised if they kept Ridley as the GL back.
KC, you work is fantastic. I am in a salary keeper league and can keep Stafford or P Harvin for the same price. I am already keeping D. Martin. With QB and WR being so deep, I am at a loss.
Hard to answer without knowing the other QB options. Stafford is not likely to hit the same attempt volume this year (check out Chris Sprow's Insider article on this subject to see why that is a good thing for the Lions), so he should be more easily replaced. Stick with Harvin.
I'm in a 14 team, 0.5ppr league where passing TDs count 6pts, would it be wise t grab one of the elite QBs early?
In a 6 pt league, it does make sense to target one of the top QBs. Just make sure it is truly one of the top QBs (i.e. Brady, Brees or Rodgers). The other just don't offer enough TD upside to warrant taking them over a starting RB.
Hi KC, I need to choose 4 keepers from the following: AP, Martin, Charles, Calvin, Luck. (16 team, 1pt ppr).Usually it would be a no-brainer to drop Luck, but with the scarcity of QBs in such a deep league, i'm wondering whether to drop Charles instead?
Hands down, keep Charles. If Luck is replaced with, say, Carson Palmer, the drop off will be much lower than it would be for Charles and his PPR league replacement.
KC - Looking back what is the worst fantasy football advice that you have given that still haunts you?
And I was having a good day today - what a time to bring back bad memories. It would have to be LeGarrette Blount. He had fantastic GBYPA numbers and looked like a true RB1, but then collapsed and had a mediocre season.
Are you saying Turner isn't that bad? B/c I have quicker feet.
His GBYPA was actually pretty good last year. He was good when he could get his feet moving, let's just put it that way.
It seems with the exception of Shady McCoy, many people are down on the Eagles' offense. How do you think Maclin, DeSean and Vick will score in Chip Kelly's new scheme?
The issue for those three is Kelly's history says he'll run a fast-paced offense that tries to wear down the other team. Those three aren't the most durable players so it doesn't look like a good fit personnel-wise.
Hey KC, so talk about the recent mock, what are you most happy with about your team, and most disappointed? Give us feedback as to what we can learn from the flow and events in the draft.
Liked the RBs (Charles and CJ) and WRs. Got a good D (Denver) at a low price and got a solid TE very late. Ended up with 3 QBs because Vick was still on the board in the next to last round and it was too much value to pass up.
What that says is QBs, D and TEs are positions that fantasy owners might be able to wait on this year.
Thoughts on Brian Hartline as a middle rounder? Or will last season be the best of his career?
He had fantastic metrics in many ways and now he won't be the central coverage point for every defense. Like the chances he has as good or a better year than last season.
I need to grab a rb in the 9th. Bryce Brown, B Tate, Gio Bernard or Vereeen? Thanks TFS. You Da' Man.
Gio. He'd be the most likely to turn his backfield into a platoon situation.
So Karabell wants no part of the Pats' offense and Matthew Berry moved Ridley into his first round of his Big Board, where do you weigh-in?
I'd actually agree with both. The NE passing game is likely to take a step back but that could benefit the run game and thus move Ridley's value up.
Hi KC,I have a 12th pick in ppr draft. I feel like at this position I should draft 2 rbs in first two rounds, because by the 3rd round good rbs are hard to find. I usually end up with Jackson and Forte, Sproles is there as well, but I feel that is too high for him, even though ppr rankings have him #12. In 3rd round I can usually draft Gronkowsky + a good wr. Is it too early on Gronk? Is this a good strategy overall?Thanks.
Way too early on Gronk - his injury woes are too much of a risk to select him that soon. Stick with the RBs, as RB depth is just painfully thin this year.
12 team PPR dynasty keeper league. I can keep two of the following: Stafford - QB, Graham-TE, Rice - RB, D. Thomas - WR, and Spiller - RB.....which two do you prefer?
Rice and Spiller. Graham would the third option but those two RBs are too high on the RB list to warrant moving Graham ahead of them on the keeper chart.
I cant decide whether Anquan Boldin's value went up or down when Crabtree got hurt. Will he draw #1 corner coverage, and if so, will that outweigh the increased attempts that should go his way?
The Niners can do enough via play calling to get ample use out of Boldin no matter what the other team does. His value took a small hit with Crabtree's injury, not a big one.
Did you hear I have a book coming out??? Should be an interesting read...Reports say DeMarco Murray is 100%...How long will he stay that way???
I've had a chance to peruse that book, should be buying it soon. The Jim Myers part of it (that's Steele's real name) is just as interesting as The Animal part of it. Murray at 100 percent probably lasts through September but after that it's likely to be a question mark.
Who are your blue rated WRs this year if any?
Looks like Megatron will be the only one of that caliber. Kicking around whether to give Dez that rating, leaning towards not doing so (got a few reasons for it, will explain in the DG).
It's the Big Guy, KCJ! Who would you keep between Marshawn in the 2nd and Ridley in the 10th? Can't wait for the guide, thanks!
Didn't they call Scott Hall that at one time? Can't wait to get the guide out - it's very close to completion. Would keep Ridley over Marshawn given those round values.
Any thoughts on the skill players in StL? Or will we have to wait til preseason to see who the starting RB and featured receivers will be?
Like Bradford and Cook as deep sleepers. All the rest are up in the air.
Chris Johnson, Ridley or David Wilson as final keeper? No price considerations or limit on how long players can be kept.
Johnson. The change at OC from last year to this will make all of the difference.
Keeper league question: I can only keep 2 ans have three good options. GIve up a 1st for McCoy, 2nd rounder for Jamal Charles, 7th for Ridley or 11th for Cobb. I pick 10th in this league and most RB1s will be used as keepers so not many options at the 10th pick.
Would keep McCoy and Charles. Those are high prices to pay but in their case it's more than worth the cost.
Would you have taken Charles ahead of any of the guys that went before him in the ppr mock (AD, Rice, Foster, Martin)?
Not ahead of Peterson. Ahead of Rice. Up in the air on Foster and Martin.
I noticed you taking the Denver Defense in your last mock draft. I am rather fond of this defense as well. Were you targeting them or did you just take them because of where they ranked? Thanks KC.
A bit of both. They are one of maybe 3-4 fantasy defenses that should be strong week to week starters.
Can keep two of these four WR - AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones? Thoughts?
Green is the most dependable of that bunch, so he gets picked first. Would say Thomas over Jones by just a slight bit because he's the dominant vertical threat and Jones has to share that role with White.
Love the chat KC!!! Keep up the great work!!! Keeper question...Pick two...Chris Johnson ($16), DeMarco Murray ($11) and RGIII ($1)...I only have one year left of control on CJ so I am leaning towards Murray and RGIII...Thoughts???
Not sure how many years Murray and RG3 have but that one-year deal on Johnson makes taking Murray/RG3 the better choice. At least assuming losing Johnson won't destroy your RB chances and force you to get a tattoo.
Thoughts on Kaepernick as a viable QB1 this year?
His top WR is out with an injury. He plays on a run-first team. He's in a really tough division. Teams are going all out to figure out how to stop the read-option. Lots of negatives, probably too many to say he's a week to week level QB1 option.
Please choose three to keep (no limits, cost first three rounds)- Spiller, Ridley, Megatron, RGIII and DMC?
Spiller, Ridley, Megatron. Not sold on DMC and as good as RG3 is, he's got injury issues and the QB position is quite deep this year.
I get to keep two and boiled it down to three. With no monetary value, I'm keeping AP, but should I keep AJ over Rogers?
Very tough call. Would say Rodgers if only because at his best he can be the top scoring player in fantasy football.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
It wouldn't be a chat with out Doug weighing in on this. If my count is correct, that is 12 greater than signs, which is a new record!
Hey KC, trying to sneak this one in early in case I'm not around later. Have two standing trade offers with the only difference being my giving up Mark Ingram or Andre Brown. Both are bench guys, but I also have David Wilson. Help?
Would keep Brown. That NO backfield is too crowded and Brown/Wilson might be the kind of platoon team that affords your team two starters.
I'm guessing your down to single days now on your draft guide, cant wait. would you be ok with Ridley as your #2 RB regardless if you grabbed him in the 2nd or 3rd of a PPR draft? what color on the scale do you have him?
It is looking like single days for the draft guide - it won't be long! Would be OK with Ridley as a low-end RB2. He'll have a green rating in the draft guide.
KC - I drew the short stick in a 14-team PPR draft and have the 14th pick. After the top 11 or 12 RB's are taken, I can't simply follow suit and draft a second-rate RB corps. What do you think I should do - Dez and Brandon Marshall at 14 + 15 sound like a good way to start a draft?
It's possible that there will be at least one starting caliber RB at pick No. 14 in a PPR league - Megatron could very well land a first round spot. Might aim to land one RB and a top-flight WR. For the later-round RBs, would aim to try to get a tandem like the GB pairing of Lacy and Franklin. That way you still get a starting caliber RB at a lower cost.
Anywhere >>>> Michigan
Hey now! I grew up in Michigan. Still lots to like about the Great Lakes state.
It's been a fun hour - really appreciate all of the interesting questions. Couple of quick closing notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The 2013 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is on pace to be released next week but can still be purchased for a pre-order discount at www.thefootballscientist.com. Thanks again for the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!