If knowledge is the key, then I think it's time you learn. Klawchat.
Keith, with Courtney Hawkins struggling, do the White Sox have a top 100 guy right now? Tim Anderson?
Probably not, but Anderson would be the best candidate. They promoted Hawkins too aggressively - I feel bad for any kid asked to handle that kind of a jump when he's not ready.
I understand Billy Hamilton not making the top 50, but how do you feel about his current MLB projection?
There's too high of a chance of him not hitting enough for the speed to play up - so much of his value will come from his legs, and if he's not strong enough to post an OBP much above .310-320, he's just a bit player.
Justin Profar, Justin Grimm and Rougned Odor for Chris Sale...who says no?
That's basically Profar for Sale ... I'd take that if I were Chicago, but again, you're asking the guy who thinks Sale's headed for a breakdown (and has for years, while he continues to stay mostly healthy).
How close was Tyler Glasnow to making the list?
Next fifty. Plus-plus fastball, avg CB/SL. Probably a starter, but secondary isn't good enough to lock that in.
Keith, have you seen Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez? Does he have top 50 prospect kind of talent?
I have not. What I've heard is plus fastball with sink, plus slider, fringy CH. I think he'll get paid big-time the way Soler and Puig did last summer, because he's not subject to the int'l signing budget caps.
Who do you think will have the most success of the following low level prospects: Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, Nick Williams, and Jairo Beras?
Safest bet is Williams, but he has the lowest ceiling. Brinson has the highest ceiling.
Who do you believe has the brighter future, Didi Gregourius, or Chris Owings?
Owings. But he wasn't tabbed the next Derek Jeter, so he might just be trade bait.
Keith, you had Clayton Blackburn on the second half of your Top 100 before the year. Would he still be in that range, or has your opinion of him backed up some?
Still in that range. Not much upside potential - he is what he is, but that's a solid #4.
Surprised to see 4 recent 2013 draftees on the list given the suspect nature of the draft. How many same-year draftees would normally make this post-draft list?
I think that was fewer than last year's top 50. Offseason top 100 usually has 12-17 guys from the most recent draft, I think.
I recognize that the injuries d'Arnaud has suffered have affected his status as a prospect but, considering that the latest one was a freakish type of injury and that you thought enough of him to have him 14th on your preseason list, dropping him off the mid-season list entirely seems a bit harsh. Are you now convinced that he just won't ever be healthy enough to cash in on his talent?
Harsh? This will be the fourth time in six full years that he's failed to play 100 games in a season. I love the tools, but if you can't stay healthy enough to catch full-time, you're not a top 50 prospect.
You angered quite a few Cub fans with your Baez ranking. I was assuming your ranking was due to your first hand observations from the AFL and spring training. Have you seen Baez much or at all this season? Supposedly taking pitches, and calming his swing down.
Tell them to consider therapy.
What's your opinion on Maikel Franco?
Wrote about him after seeing him in Trenton a week and a half ago - has power, raw hit tool is good, but recognition of offspeed is atrocious and he's rough at third. I like him, but no way is he top 50.
What caused you to drop Guerrieri out of the top 25? Seems like maybe you heard more than you let on in the top 50 writeup.
I wrote that his velocity's off and he's been hurt twice. That seemed like a pretty good justification for the new ranking.
There are rumors that Olt will be part of the Garza trade if he goes to Texas. Is Olt still good enough to headline such a deal?
I didn't think he was beforehand. But now might be the time to "buy low" on him.
A couple times recently, you've referred to Josh Satin as a horrible ball player. Can you help me understand why you say that? His career minor league numbers are .303/.401/.465 with a 13% BB rate and 20% K rate. I know you can't scout the stat line, so what have I missed not seeing him play every day?
He's always been very old for his levels - 25 in high-A, for example. He does nothing well; grade out his tools and there's not an average one on the board, and he can't play anywhere but first. Why are Met fans so obsessed with this guy? He'll be lucky to be on the roster at this time next year.
I can't fathom why people get "upset" with your rankings. I can understand why they may disagree (which is part of the fun). It's as if they think your ranking effects their favorite prospect, or his standing in the majors.
You don't understand. I have powers.
Bogaerts or Machado long term? Is it even close?
Machado. Love Bogaerts, but Machado's a better defender.
I know he's not top 50, but what sort of prospect is Luiz Gohara? Thanks.
Big fan. Good chance he's top 100 by January. Real loose, chance for a plus CB, average FB already.
Can you elaborate any on the negative reports you've heard on Josh Bell?
Summarizing ... power before hit, bad RH swing, LF only, questions about effort level.
Keith, wondering if you share my confusion with the idea that the Cubs shouldn't even consider extending Garza; that trading him is a no brainer. Isn't possible, if not likely, that both the Cubs and Garza figure to be good 2 years from now?
30 year old who gets hurt a lot? Not for me, thanks.
Matt Davidson -- top 100 guy right now? 70-80 range?
He was on my top 100 this offseason, and the offseason before that ... and I think the offseason before that.
Was Chris Owings close to your top 50? Is his stock at least rising?
I like him, but it would be nice if he'd walk more than once or twice a month.
Whats your opinion on Michael Choice as an impact prospect? I recently saw that he was only slugging around .430 in the PCL
Don't think he's an impact guy. Maybe an average regular.
Does Junior Lake have even an average regular ceiling?
Taillon is ranked better then his results show. What are his big issues that the results aren't meeting his stuff?
Fastball is too hittable.
Rosell Herrera is putting up eye-popping stats as a SS- .360/ high OBP, good slugging- yet he gets no regard as an elite prospect. Is he that good, or are there holes in his game?
He is good, potential top 100 guy this winter, but he's also repeating the level.
Better young Atlanta pitching prospect--Lucas Sims, or Mauricio Cabrera?
Well, one was on my top 50 today, and one wasn't, so...
Outside of command, what are some things Crick needs to work on to shoot up the rankings?
Third pitch. Talked to a scout last night, after I filed, who put Crick in as a closer, not a starter.
Ashe or Franco as the Phils future 3B?
Keith, is this a fair top six for next years draft as of now (in no order): Turner, Rodon, Beede, A. Jackson, Gatewood, and Kolek?
Looks like you're skimming from reports ... Freeman over Beede is one obvious disagreement I'd have.
Are you basically just trolling Cubs fans, or are you really this uninformed?
By "uninformed," you mean I won't tell you what you want to hear, right?
Better name - Mauricio as a first name, or Giolito as a last?
Mauricio Giolito just missed my top 50, actually.
How far was Tyrone Taylor from the top 50? Is he top 100 material?
Top 100 is likely.
Some of your comments on twitter and elsewhere make you sound like a bit of an apologist for the PED/Biogenesis players, er accused players. Do they deserve 50 game suspensions if the allegations are true? Bonus question, is a Big Mac actually food?
What are the allegations, exactly? That their names are on a list? I can write some names on a list for you if you'd like. I'll even write "BAD DRUGZ GUYS" on top so it looks all official.
Where did Julio Urias come from? Where do you think he'll end up when you do your top 100?
Mexico. Front offices guys I talked to for this list had him as a top 100 type, not top 50. He's a hard one to evaluate because he could still get taller, which is almost never true of pro prospects I deal with.
Which of the following Mets prospects have a chance at your top 100 next season: TdA, Montero, Flores, D. Smith, Plawecki?
Plawecki no. Flores unlikely. Other three all legit chances.
As a front office exec towards the end of the "loosey-goosey era" did you know of any PED users or was it just suspected or likely guys? Obviously, not looking for names, just knowledge of front offices at the time with regards to the issue.
Knew of one big leaguer and I think three minor leaguers. If we had others, I wasn't aware of it.
Could Vic Black be a closer in the majors?
With that awful delivery, he may never have the command.
Is the Dodgers' Joc Pederson anything more than a potentially average outfielder?
How close was Raul Adalberto Mondesi to making your t50? Still too young for such a list?
It would be awesome if people would actually read the list before asking questions about it.
How much longer does Bubba Starling have before we give up on him entirely as a prospect?
Two more years? Very disappointing so far but still too early to walk away.
Say we lived in an alternate universe in which Travis d'Arnaud had been healthy all year, and produced up to expectations. Where would he have ranked int he mid-season top 50?
Over/under on the number of years before Rowdy Tellez is playing in a slow pitch softball game on ESPN?
That's mean. Five and a half.
Don't get me wrong, I like Alex Wood and do believe he can be a star reliever, but why do some Atlanta fans feel like he is "Chris Sale 2" just because of the wacky LH delivery? I can't imagine him holding up for 200 innings.
Me neither. Arm action is worse, and he's already blown out once.
It would be awesome if the list wasn't insider.
Everything I've written for seven years has been Insider, and I put out something like 200 pieces a year. Sign up already.
Keith, regardless of your feelings of the law/rules regarding marijuana, isn't it a makeup concern that a guy broke a rule that is very well known?
No, unless you think 50-60% of big leaguers have bad makeup.
I did read the list....but didn't feel like it was clear. So why was Billy Hamilton omitted? In minors....you really think his upside is outside the 50 w/ his speed? Can't steal first theory? Delino DeShields the same?
Can't steal first, not sure he's strong enough to hit enough to get to first.
Insider is free trial right now Bob
Should the Rockies be buying at the deadline? Do they have a shot at the NL West?
I hear they are buyers, but I think they're about a .400 team on true talent right now and should be selling, despite their place in the standings.
You think Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jimenez would slide up here when signed?
No. Way too far away/low-probability.
Did Plawecki receive any consideration for this list? Or do you need to see more?
No consideration. The 65 games he spent in Savannah were a colossal waste of time. He's 22 and comes from a D1 school in a mid-major conference. He didn't need to go beat up 20-year-old pitching prospects and 24-year-old org arms for two months.
The Rays get quite a bit of deserved praise for the way they've done things right. But would you agree their drafting has been sub-par? Beckham over Posey is more of a hindsight thing, but 2009 was a bust, and it seemed to me like 2011 with all those picks was a wasted opportunity. Agree or disagree?
This is fair - their drafts, relative to opportunity cost, haven't worked out well.
That high on Tellez, huh?
I didn't get that signing at all. Then again I wasn't wild about Bickford, so the Jays and I don't really line up on amateurs.
Do you drink wine? If so, have you ever ordered a bottle of wine at a restaurant and after the initial tasting sent it back?
I drink wine, but know very little about it. More of a beer guy. I've never sent wine back - if the server offers me the first taste, I'll defer to someone else at the table who knows it better than I do - but my understanding is that you should only do that if it's spoiled. I was at a dinner once with a non-baseball company (prior to working for Toronto) where my manager at the time sent back THREE bottles because they were "not sweet enough."
How do you project AJ Jimenez's future in the majors? Average regular? Star? I ask because I cant take Arencibia behind the plate anymore.
Who's your single season home run king?
73 is more than 61. Math is hard, folks.
Thoughts on your coworker's proposed deal of Choice, Weeks and Ynoa for Utley, Ruiz?
I wouldn't take that if I were the Phillies.
How should I season steamed vegetables?
Salt and some kind of acid/fat combo - lemon butter, vinaigrette, etc.
If Miguel Cabrera and his -.8 dWAR is a "disaster" at third base, what does that make Trout and his -1.1 dWAR in LF? Especially considering that it is universally accepted that third base is a tougher position to man
I'm looking at UZR here, which has Cabrera at -11.9 - a "disaster" as you call him - and Trout at +1.1. Granted, defensive numbers can be noisy in small samples, but that lines up with the eye test.
Is Heredia a top 100 prospect?
Keith, I see that the Rays only have 1 top 50 guy (Guerrieri) in your recent rankings but they had a top 3 org in the preseason. Where would you currently rank them?
Good bit lower, maybe not top ten any more. Lost Myers, Torres, and Archer to promotions, and likely to lose Odorizzi and Colome for the same reason. Several key guys have gone backwards this year, notably Shaffer, and Hak-Ju Lee will miss the year.
Any thoughts on Steve Matz? I'd given up on him after a couple years of injuries, but he's been lights out this year and rumored to have good stuff. Never hear him on prospect lists, though, so I'm skeptical.
Unless the delivery's changed, I'd probably still put him in as a reliever.
Have you tried Grotto Pizza yet?
Yes, didn't like it.
Kolton Wong...not enough upside for top-50?
No, not close. Average to above-average regular ceiling.
Kevin Goldstein, now that he's a member of the Astros, doesn't leak any info. Kevin Goldstein, the writer, probably had a ton of league sources. Does this bother you as someone who's been in both places?
How do you know he doesn't leak? He just told me yesterday how hard he's trying to convince Jeff to acquire Junior Lake and Matt Szczur.
Do you feel that Trevor Story's struggles so far this season place him outside the top 100?
Yes. Couple of reports on him from the Cal League just buried him. Said even the glove had gone backwards, which shocked me - at the time of the draft I thought he was "all glove and pray he hits."
What happened to Larry Greene? Thought he had decent power outlook, but haven't seen him mentioned in any Phillies prospect rankings in a while.
Power before hit, no other tools. No bueno.
Have you tried Capriotti's yet for their real turkey and roast beef hoagies?
I've tried the turkey - solid. Wife loves the Italian salad there too.
If you were Amaro what would your strategy be for the upcoming trade deadline. Who would you look to move, and if you were selling are there any specific prospects or players you would target to help compete in 2014?
Trade 'em all. Let God sort 'em out.
Seriously, any pending FA should go, and I'd at least dangle Cliff Lee and see what happens.
Keith. answer. question. please. Is Henry Urruita for real? He's killed double-A and AAA so far.
He's also 26 years old. I saw him on Sunday - good swing, ball comes off his bat really well, pure DH though.
How can you say a player's pitch recognition is "atrocious" based on such a small sample (re: Franco)? What if he just wasn't seeing the ball well against a specific pitcher?
How big was the sample? I don't see how you'd know that.
Give me somewhere good to eat in San Diego. Thanks!
Mission for breakfast, Ortega's or Searsucker for dinner. Plus Blais is opening a place there soon called Juniper & Ivy.
I see Ventura was just off the top 50. Do you see him as a starter in the long run?
I think he's probably a reliever. Throws hard, no plane, may be very homer-prone.
Is Corey Seager ready for a promotion to High A? It seems like the bat's ready, but what about the defense? Or is that something that more time in Low A isn't going to help anyway?
He's going to end up at third, in my opinion; I'd promote him and either move him to third now or in instructs this year. Little left to learn with the bat in Great Lakes.
Jon Denney or Blake Swihart as Red Sox catcher of the future. I know you had Swihart as an honorable mention: is that as a catcher or because of the bat potential? Does Denney have a chance to reach these levels in a few years?
Swihart - better defender now, better athlete, but also a good two-three years ahead of Denney developmentally.
Any Cape trip planned? Anyone worth seeing?
Just the ASG and the night before it.
Settle an argument between myself and my brother in-law please. Is your ranking of Springer much lower than Sano completely a reflection of his strikeout potential? Are Springers numbers inflated at all this year due to him playing in AAA?
Reflection of his lack of a two-strike approach, and the chance Sano stays on the dirt while Springer is already in the outfield.
Do you see the Dodgers recent improved play continuing in the second half?
I think they win the West by five games.
We miss you
I miss you too, man.
Ron freakin Swanson wasnt nominated for an Emmy. Travesty.
Yep. Although the awards show that whiffed entirely on The Wire shouldn't be taken too seriously in the first place.
What keeps Wilmer Flores from getting the recognition he deserves? A 21 year old crushing AAA seems ok to me. I get he's in Vegas but he hits on the road too...
.288/.333/.440 on the road, including two games in Colorado Springs, four each in Reno and Salt Lake, and six in Tucson. PCL stats might as well come from a random number generator for all they tell us.
heard anything on tyler naquin this season?
Yes, including a "how the heck was this guy a first-rounder" comment.
You say in your list that Taveras could be the opening day RF for the Cardinals next year, but don't they want to keep him in center? And how well do you think he can handle that? Seems like it'd be worth a try if he's ok, since they could then move Craig to right, start Adams at first, and get Jay's non-impact bat out of the lineup.
I don't think he can be an average defender in center. Emergency guy, sure, but not an everyday guy.
Justin Schoop was once touted, what's his deal?
Stress fracture in his back.
Does Cosart have a bright future or was his no-hit bid just a bit of luck?
I still think he ends up a reliever - cross-body delivery, can't repeat it enough to throw strikes.
Is Eddie Butler a future ace?
Might be. Pretty filthy stuff.
Disappointed that Tarry Lodge disappointed you.
As was I. Readers suggested Motorino and Paulie Gee's for my next NYC pizza trips. Not that I'd drive there just for pizza. (Of course I would.)
Is David Berg from UCLA a potential closer in the bigs?
Just because a large percentage of players use marijuana does not mean it is wise and just. It has just as much tar as tobacco and some of the same carcinogens. It affects your memory, and cognitive function. Come up with a better argument for me. Not the well every one else is doing it. You are smarter than that.
I don't use it, but if it doesn't affect a player's ability to play the game at a high level and perform other aspects of his job, and doesn't put anyone else at risk, why should I judge him for it? And why should MLB regulate it?
What radar gun do you recommend?
I do not recommend that people outside the industry buy radar guns.
David Holmberg a probable top 100 guy this winter?
Big command guy, fringy fastball, low ceiling. I wouldn't say "no" but those guys don't fare well on my lists in general.
About Flores, he has proven that he can hit .300 consistently in the minors, so I don't see why the batting average will be a problem in the majors. Even if he is awful defensively, wouldn't a .300/15-20 HR's/90-100 RBI second baseman be an all star? Maybe I am missing something about Flores.
We're speaking differently languages on the stats here, but I also don't think he can play 2b in the majors.
is joc Pederson more billy Ashley or raul mondesi?
There's a little range in between there ... but more Mondesi if I have to choose.
Has the talk cooled down that Eddie Butler ends up as a reliever?
so Eddie butler's changeup in the futures game look like it had some serious arm-side run. (if you watch the telecast Sutcliff compared it to LH breakball). Is he throwing a screwball? is it just a case of that particular one he might have pronated more? or is that his normal CH. it was flithy.
@John: Yes. @Matt: He just threw one, and yeah, it was insane, screwball-like. Can be a function of grip or release ... I would love to see him throw a dozen of them to see how consistent that action is.
How would you feel if your child decided to use marijuana and you knew a wealth of information that says it cause cause issues? As a player development expert why would you want to hinder your prospects growth? So many decisions teams make can hinder their huge investments in their players. Why then not care about what they put in their bodies?
Should MLB regulate players' drinking? Smoking tobacco? Consuming saturated fat? Sugar? Processed foods? Is an MLB team a player's employer or his freaking nanny?
Is Danny Hultzen even a top 100 prospect any more? Still just #3 upside?
Wasn't top 50 for me before the year. Shoulder issues knock him down further.
Sorry if I'm wrong, but didn't you have Gray above Bryant in your draft rankings? What's changed now that they're officially prospects?
I had Bryant over Gray.
How upset should i be when when RAJ deals Franco for a set up guy?
What do you think about Cord Sandberg? Seems like a high-potential, raw guy.
Exactly. Good pick by the Phils. Liked their draft a lot.
I was happy to read that Eduardo Rodriguez' stock is improving...does project as a solid #2/#3? ETA 2015?
Yes, 2/3. 2015 at the earliest - very young, still raw and a little immature on the mound.
I've seen some articles discussing a Stanton trade to the Pirates, the articles go both ways on it being a good idea to give up Tailon. Should Tailon be untouchable? How good can he be as a comparison to a current MLB pitcher?
I'd give him up for Stanton.
Any thoughts on JO Berrious seems like a top 100 guy with potential to be 2/3 starter or does his height hold him back. MN Fans are screaming Pedro-jokes
I think he'll also be too flyball/homer-prone. He ain't Pedro.
About how many players out of those who are drafted in the first round do you usually get to see in person before the draft?
It was over 20 this year, I think. Varies by year. Might be fewer next year if I'm in Bristol more.
How is Sandburg different than Tellez? Both big power guys with less than ideal hit tools.
You just compared one of the draft's best athletes to one of its worst. How do I have to clarify this?
Smoking tobacco, Consuming saturated fat, Sugar, Processed foods None of those are illegal Keith. Personally I think it should be legalized and probably will someday, but it's still breaking a law at the present time
So is driving drunk, which puts other people at risk. The CBA doesn't bother with that.
What percentage of the questions asked do you answer in these chats?
The queue is now at 1688 questions.
Was there ever any confirmation as to what the medical issue was with Matt Krook that led the Marlins to not sign him?
No, not publicly (and I won't say if it's not public already). It sounds like a disagreement - the Marlins were concerned enough to offer him 40% of slot rather than full slot, but Krook felt like they were overplaying the injury to offer him less money and figured he was better off going to school. I'm not a doctor and haven't seen the medicals either, so I don't know what to think, other than that I hope the kid ends up staying healthy.
You may have posted this before and/or elsewhere, but were there any guys at the Futures Game that you seriously thought, "What the heck is he doing here?"
Every year. Have to fill the rosters somehow.
What would be the best left-side-of-infield formation for the Red Sox going forward: Bogaerts 3B, Iglesias SS or Middlebrooks 3B, Bogaerts SS?
I think Middlebrooks may be about to get squeezed out.
Remember the grief I got for omitting him from my 2012 top 100? Jeez.
Have you ever had a GM personally confront you about something you've written?
Could Middlebrooks shift to first at all? Or does his bat not play well over there?
Bat wasn't clearly going to play at third. Higher threshold at first.
That's all for this week - thanks for all the questions. I'll be back next Thursday.