Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Today it turns out that Percy Harvin will begin training camp on the PUP list because of a slight tear in his hip. Which of the two is a better replacement if Harvin isnt healthy for week 1, Jordy Nelson or Mike Wallace? Thanks
Got Wallace rated higher on the 2013 TFS Fantasy Draft Guide WR cheat sheets.
Related note - the draft guide is now available! Sent the first edition out on Monday.
KC - Thanks for the great draft guide! Can you explain the disconnect between your guide ranking RG3 so high but Garcon, Fred Davis, ect ranking so low? Doesn't quite add up to me. Simply the rushing stats that help RG3 so much?
It is the rushing stats. Washington's coaching staff has said RG3's injuries weren't from rushing plays but rather from scramble plays that went bad. Garcon & Davis are rated low for consistency reasons.
A little off topic here. I know humor is allowed to swing and miss sometimes, but that article you posted from the Onion today on Twitter re: Tony Romo -- that's insane.
As I said on Twitter - that ain't right. The Onion has done better in the past.
Are you on board with Cecil Shorts as a wr #3?
He's at the borderline of a the green and yellow rated WRs. Since he ends up on the green side of that border, he's a WR3.
Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles in a PPR league?
Good question. Would have to say Sproles but not by much. He does rate a bit higher than Bush on the standard RB cheat sheet in the draft guide.
Hear ye, Hear ye, Hear ye.....who can we trust out of the rookies at rb the most? Bell, Ball, Gio Bernard or E Lacy?
We get a town crier here - pretty cool! Ball would be the one to trust out of that group.
Loving the draft guide, awesome work! Keeper question in my 10-team 0.5 PPR...already keeping Spiller off waivers, would you keep Romo off waivers or SJax in the 2nd? Thanks!
SJax. Got to have two quality RBs even in a PPR league. And Jackson should do well in that environment. Would suggest adding Rodgers as a good PPR handcuff.
Scientist, my man! Haven't gotten the Guide yet, but you know I buy it every year. I'm seeing BJGE going very late in every mock I've done thus far. Are you as down on him as the consensus seems to be? As always, thanks.
It's good to see some anger in this chat! HULK SMASH!!! Got Law Firm a bit lower than last year. Still pretty high on the yellow-ranked RB section, 28th on the overall RB chart.
Do you think Fitzgerald can bounce back to elite levels this year?
He was a tough draft guide call. Placed him at No. 12 among WRs. Don't think he'll be back to what he was but do think he'll be closer to his best days than he will be to last year.
Keep luck at an ninth round value
In general that would be a very good move.
A Larper, awesome! I'm pouring one out for Sage....Where you at Jimmy? If DMC or Demarco Murray can stay healthy, do you like them over the current rookie rb's?
Yeah, we need a SAGE comment. Didn't feel like last week was a good enough send off for him. Have both of them rated over the rookie RBs but not by very much.
Do you think Rivers has just had a couple of bad years and bouncing back, or is he sliding down field quickly, along with the rest of the offense?
SD is going from that vertical offense to a dink/dunk offense, so it's hard to see how his numbers will improve. Got Rivers ranked 24th on the QB cheat sheet.
I get to choose my draft position this year in the draft. What's your take on best position to draft from this year?
Remember those years where the team that got LT or Holmes won something like half of all fantasy leagues? That's Peterson this year. Would get the first pick and take All Day and build the team around him.
KC, with Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson added to the Vikings' WR corps (in place of Percy Harvin), do you think Ponder will have better measurables in 2013 compared to 2012 (health assumed)?
It would be hard for his numbers to get much worse. Jennings will be a help from day one, not sure Patterson will be a big help for a while (he's really raw).
Can keep either TY Hilton or Chris Ivory with a 10th round pick. I thought Hilton would be the better choice but Ivory is going 3-4 rounds higher in mock drafts. What say you? thank you!
Not sold on Ivory's fantasy value (got him ranked 30th at RB) but do think it will be harder to replace his value than it would be to replace Hilton's. Keep Ivory.
Chris Ivory & Lamar Miller good under the radar plays?
Really like Miller as a good under the radar play. Actually have him listed as a green-rated running back.
What are your thoughts on Martellus Bennet. He is ranked so low but looked great in NYC last year when given the opportunity. Cutler needs a security blanket in Chicago and he is a big red zone target.
Got him ranked 13th on the TE cheat sheet. He's got talent but Cutler is very inconsistent. For that matter, so is Bennett.
Hi KC. Who should I keep in keeper league non ppr? Mendenhall for 7th round, Seattle def for 9th round or Pitta for 15th round. I am already keeping Demaryius Thomas and Torrey Smith.
Seattle is one of only two blue-rated D/STs, so they would be the pick.
Followed your guide to Jared Cook at TE last year very late but that didn't work out. I know I'll end up with Brandon Myers late if I follow you this time. Sell me on him.
Cook still had very good metrics but they just didn't pan out to equal fantasy success. Having Locker at QB wasn't a big help. NY has a long history of developing superb tight ends and Myers already has a quality track record. Put it this way - Eli trumps Locker and that's why Myers will easily trump Cook's performance from last year.
What makes Miller a green guy? I like him some, but that seems aggressive.
O line (Miami had terrific run block metrics last year and should be close to that this year). The Fins backfield situation (he's likely to be the lead back). The Fins WR situation (Wallace is a huge plus). A highly favorable schedule.
A Ridley owner here. My rb #2 is D Murray and I have a chance to drop a scrub wr for Vereen. Any reason not to do it? Gio Bernard is also available. Thanks TFS!
Got Bernard pegged as a modern day James Brooks. That rates him slightly higher than Vereen. Definitely drop the scrub WR for one of them (preferably Bernard).
What would your early round draft strategy be for the 10th pick in a 12 team league if you already had Ridley as a 7th round keeper?
Hard to say without knowing more but in general this is a year to go RB/RB with the first two picks. RB depth is quite suspect this year and depth is a lot easier to find at every other position (except maybe TE).
Allen or Fleener in Indy? The stats seem to say Allen, but some people continue to cite the Stanford connection with Fleener.
Fleener has better route running skills and will be flexed out a whole lot more than he was last year. He's the pick out of those two.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
If my count is correct, that's 14 greater than signs. Isn't it supposed to be 13 this week?
Bigger year Alfred Morris or Steven Jackson?
Got Morris rated higher. Jackson is a superb RB2, just not sure he'll get enough rushes/targets to be a RB1.
what are the color breaks with the rb's? thanks!
Can't give that all away, but will say this. There are five blue-rated RBs and Spiller is the top green-rated RB.
Tavon Austin a solid WR2 in a ppr league that counts return stats?
In that environment, absolutely. Got Austin as a mid WR4 in a standard environment and those additions move him up to WR2.
Is AP Rodgers and Chris Johnson an acceptable first 3 picks?
Yep. Johnson did well down the stretch last year and should be a quality RB2. He could even post RB1 numbers but there is no reason to pick him at that level considering his current ADP.
I also have Ridley with a 7th round keeper and will be taking RB in round 1. We only start 2 RB, when should I begin to look for my 3rd RB for depth?
Could be any time after the first round, assuming the league has a flex pick. Am on board with picking a third RB as a flex pick before picking a starting WR, at least in some situations.
Can keep up to 5 keepers. Please help me out between, luck, kaepernick, doug martin, chris johnson, demarrco murray, larry fitz, randall cobb, julio jones, and gronk. Thanks
Tough call. At first glance it would be Martin, Johnson, Jones, Gronk and Cobb. Kaep would rank 6th.
What it doKC? Keeping Charles and McCoy definitely... 3rd keeper I'm torn on. Help me, help...me. Who ya got? P. Manning, A. Luck or S. Jax.
Go for youth - Luck. Unless it's a one-year strategy - then it's SJax.
Where does Matt Stafford fall in your rankings? How does he compare to Cam Newton?
Stafford ended up 11th. Newton 6th.
Spiller Morris and Gore bradshaw ok for standard 10 team league?
Certainly. Bradshaw is a great fit as a RB4.
when writing the guide, which player surprised you the most in a good way? bad way?
Would like to say but am going to be writing about some of those in some upcoming Insider articles.
We got no flex, we only start 2 RBs.
Then get your WR starters first. Maybe TE if you can get Graham. Then aim for 3rd RB.
Are there any TEs besides Graham and maybe Gronk who are worth taking before round 4-5?
Nope. The value at TE is flat this year. 10th TE won't be that much worse than the 4th TE.
There seems to be a big question mark at running back for St. Louis this year. Who do you think is most likely to get the bulk of the carries this season: Richardson or Stacy?
Richardson had some fantastic metrics last year. Like him as the lead back in a RBBC backfield.
Whom should I keep, in a 12-team PPR all-purpose yardage league (i.e. return stats VERY valuable): Sproles as a 4th, Amendola as an 8th, David Wilson as an 8th. Thanks!
Interesting question. First glance, would say Sproles.
first time playing in a 20 team league it is also the start of a dynasty league. About 6 teams have taken QB's as their team captains. How soon would you consider drafting a QB
There are 12 blue- or green-rated QBs this year. Would aim to get one of them if possible. Hard to say where to draft them given that it depends on the rest of the league set up, but might aim to make that the third highest pick (i.e. get the starting RBs then get the QB).
hakeem nicks in the 6th round this year? seems a bit low no?
Got him ranked 11th on the WR charts, albeit with a "risky" designation. Can see why he would fall but like that as a risk/reward pick.
Can you roll with David WIlson as a rb #2 over Darren McFadden?
Yep. He rates higher than DMC on the RB cheat sheets.
Quick note - the cheat sheets can be found in the TFS 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, which is available at www.thefootballscientist.com. Check out the Twitter feed @KCJoynerTFS to find a $5 discount code.
Would you handcuff Amendola with Edelman (very late round) in a 12-team ppr league?
Like that idea. Unusual to handcuff Edelman to Amendola but it's a good percentage play in that offense. If things work out, it would warrant two possible starters (assuming there is a flex position).
in terms of evaluating players, what do you trust more: game tape or stats?
They both have tremendous value but in a tiebreaking situation, stats usually trump the scouting eye.
Which 3 would you keep out of D. Martin, Forte, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham
Definitely Martin. Possibly Forte depending on the RB situation in that league. It would then go Jones, Graham and then Thomas (like Thomas a lot but Peyton is getting up there in years and he might not be a good longer-term keeper).
Hilton >>>>>>>>>[ty(1,100 Yards + 8 TDs)/x]
Math by Zac.
Hey KC, I already lost my kicker (Conner Barth) in one league, not a good start to my season! (Although he is easily replaced.) Even though WR is deep, my strategy so far has been to grab 2 RB and 2 WR in the first four rounds of drafts. I grab the best available QB based on the flow of the draft in the following rounds. Sounds strategy? Oh, and Brock and Paul are gonna get it.
The Best and The Beast - should make for a great SummerSlam match. QB is deeper than WR so that's a sound strategy. Can't wait to see how Punk tells this story. It's one thing to make people think he might beat Taker at WM but beating Lesnar in any match is something he'll have to be really creative about to make the story work.
Do you think the Packers *really* want to get any of their RBs involved in the game enough to make them fantasy-relevant, at say a possible RB2 level? If so, do you see Lacy or Franklin as being the better fit in their system?
Lacy ranks higher on the RB charts but Franklin is a perfect fit for that offense. Wrote a couple of Insider articles about him, check them out for more specifics.
A follow-up question regarding David Wilson -- how confident (or concerned) are you that he will block well enough to stay on the field?
Concerned but not so concerned to think he'll be anything less than a two-down back. Still got him ranked No. 17 at RB.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>> Hilton
Seems like a backhanded compliment to Megatron.
Super busy at work and no time to read your chat. I just wanted to hop on and say great work on the guide this year. For anyone thinking about getting it you wont regret your purchase. Keep up the great work KC
Really appreciate that!
Well, it's been fun but it's time to hit the road. Couple of quick notes. Links to the TFS material are always posted on Twitter (@KCJoynerTFS) and at www.thefootballscientist.com. The draft guide is now available at the aforementioned website. Check out the Twitter feed for a $5 discount code on the draft guide. Thanks again for the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!