Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
I'm totally with you on Reggie Bush! ...at least in premise, since I'm not an insider and can't read your article. Would you rather draft him or Darren Sproles?
Squall, I can't believe you aren't an Insider! It's totally up your alley. Got Sproles rated just a bit higher than Bush in the 2013 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide cheat sheets.
I purchased your 2013 fantasy football guide. I love the indepth analysis! My only question is do you provide an auction value analysis? I want to know how much I should pay for certain players.
The plan is to hit on auction values soon. The next update will have expanded PPR rankings and auctions are next up on the list.
Is Sidney Rice a Low End WR1 now
Rice certainly has WR1 potential (his metrics were exceptional last year) but the durability issues hold him back to a WR3 status.
I miss the chat every week and have to read the logs. Finally have some time at work today. 100$ balance, who which 2 you keeping out of C. Kap $2, Richardson $12, and Wayne $4? Thanks in advance!
Thanks for stopping by! Richardson is a top 10 RB (he made the No. 10 mark of the TFS ESPN Insider perfect first-round article) so he's a go at $12. Would say Wayne if it is a PPR and Kaep if it isn't.
Won my league last year, so I have the privilege to pick 12th. In most mocks, top 10 RBs and Megatron are gone. Even though SJackson is highest ranked RB left, I really worry about his age - the data on 30 yo RBs is quite extensive. I am thinking that Rodgers, AJ or Dez would be more valuable than SJax. I would take one of them, Ridley as my RB1 and roll the dice on Wilson/Murray/Bush/Sproles (who's 30 too!) in rounds 3-4. Is this sound strategy?
To have Ridley, Jackson and one of those four would be the best way to go. It would give a flex option along with a strong backup to the starting RBs. WR & QB are deep enough that you'll still be able to get very good players there as well.
HAY , MY FIRST TWO PICKS ARE RUNNING BACKS IN THE DRAFT ,WHAT ABOUT MY 3RD,4TH PICK.I PLAY P.P.R LUIGE
NO NEED TO YELL! Third pick could be a RB if there is a pass catching RB still on the board. Otherwise it has to be a top WR.
Is it bad to own more than one reciever on the same team as in like Green Bay or Denver basically is it good to have hanndcuff WRS like RBS
As long as the team throws enough passes, having two WRs off of the same club isn't a no-no. It does tend to limit the potential of having two WRs post big games, however.
I know this might sound crazy but would picking up alex smith as a back up in free agency a bad idea or will he put up some numbers
Not crazy at all. Got Smith rated as the No. 17 QB in the latest TFS Draft Guide QB cheat sheets.
What's for dinner?
My eldest is making chicken fajitas and chicken tacos. Mrs. Scientist is showing him how to cook.
Love Alex Smith as a late round backup or $1 purchase in that Andy Reid offense.
Completely agree. He's an absolute bargain at that price.
Would you put Bush in that second tier of RBs (Forte, S Jax, Ridley) in a PPR?
Got Bush rated as the No. 13 RB in the PPR cheat sheets. And that ranking might be a bit low, as he definitely has RB1 PPR upside in that offense.
Thoughts on Denarius Moore? Should we expect growth from last season, or will the Palmer-to-Flynn transition cancel that out?
Not sold on Flynn. Got Moore ranked as the No. 40 WR because of it. He's got green-rated potential but is listed as a yellow-rated player.
Will R. White and M. Colston play the same consistent high level football as they have for so many years?
They are both green-rated WRs, with White being a mid-range WR1 and Colston a mid-range WR2.
Speaking of Palmer, are you sold on Carson being a number 2 QB in a two QB league?
Got Palmer rated No. 16 overall on the QB charts. Really like his upside in that Arians offense. Not quite a green-rated QB but on the precipice.
In a .5 PPR league, can you rank the following fliers (pun intended) - Dobson, Gordon, Michael Floyd and Vincent Brown?
Got Gordon ranked really high - actually gave him a low-end green-rating even with the suspension. If his injury woes continue, that could change, but the upside will be there either way. Not nearly as sold on the other three. Floyd would rank the highest out of that trio right now.
"It's the most wonderful chaaaaaaat of the week." KC, I am completely sold on Colin Kaepernick and think over the course of a full season he can finish as a Top 3 QB. How do you feel about him?
Hey, the chats are some of the most fun I have all week (which either is a chat compliment or a knock on my life outside of football - or both!). Got Kaepernick rated as the No. 10 QB. He's got a green rating, so he's a definite top-flight player at his position. Think he'll have a bit of a decline over last year (he got lucky to have only three picks) but all in all he's still a very good QB1.
I was asked to trade Dez Braynt for Julio Jones? I just feel Braynt wont have the same support as Julio they will be double covering him everygame while with Juilo I think theres to many weapons
They are both hot/cold WRs but Bryant's upside made him one of only two blue-rated WRs (with the other being a very popular chat discussion topic every week). Would rather be on the Bryant end of that trade.
Are you buying Jacoby Jones as the No. 2 in Baltimore? Thoughts on Deonte Thompson?
Nope. Got Jones as a red-rated WR in part because he still has yet to lock down the starter's job.
Hey KC, thanks for mocking with us on Monday, I was able to get in on one of your deep PPR mocks. This year I'll be in the first year of a 10 team 2 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te - PPR and passing td's worth 6, and keep 2 players league. I've got the 9th pick and I'm thinking of grabbing Rodgers/Brees (if they're there) with my 1st 2 picks. Any thoughts on this strategy? Would I be better off just grabbing one of the qb's and getting someone like Forte in the 2nd?
Mock Draft Monday rocked. Next time I'll get into even more drafts, as that was fun. In a two-QB league, if you can get Rodgers and Brees (two blue-rated QBs) as the top picks, absolutely do it. You'll potentially be a bit thin at RB but Rodgers and Brees can make that up.
In a 1 PPR league, is Calvin Johnson a top-5 pick?
If he's not quite top 5, he's right next to it. Put it this way - taking him as the No. 5 pick in a PPR is not a bad move by any stretch.
With the love for Alex Smith, am I a WR2 with WR1 potential?
Got Bowe ranked No. 14 on the WR charts and have him listed as having low-end WR1 potential. Great value choice in some leagues.
Based on comments, I assume you think Richardson will be lead horse in St Louis, any specific reason for that?
The 9.5 GBYPA last year was the main factor. He's got some burst in his step, probably more than Pead or Stacy.
How do you see things breaking out between Lacy and Franklin? Is one significantly more valuable than the other? Would you consider drafting them both?
I've been on the Franklin bandwagon since before the draft. They are both good picks but Franklin is the better fit with that offense and could be the better value pick of the two.
so do you think green takes tds away from c.j in tennessee
Not really. As noted in the draft guide, only nine of Johnson's TDs the past three years have been of the GL variety. He usually breaks off long runs for his scoring plays, so don't think Greene will vulture many of his points.
Why has Russell Wilson suddenly dropped all the way to 69 on the ESPN top 300?
Any drop in Wilson's value has to be related to Percy Harvin's injury. The TFS mindset is that won't be quite as big of an impact as it seems at first glance (check out this week's TFS ESPN Insider article on the Harvin/Wilson situation for more details).
How do you see Danny Amendola working out in New England from a fantasy perspective? Wes Welker 2.0?
Amendola isn't quite as productive as Welker on short passes and he has the durability issues. He'll do well in NE but am just not seeing him being the next Welker.
Following up on Lacy/Franklin: I don't recall the last time a GB RB was particularly useful in fantasy (Ryan Grant in '07?). I don't see how 2 Packer backs will be useful this year. Just my 2 cents.
True. Consider this - the Packers did draft these guys with the idea of upgrading their run game. Hard to see them not using them a lot.
We always hear about your worst call (some guy from MI), what do you consider one of your best calls?
It's like this - sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you. The Megatron/Wallace comparison is one where the bear eventually got me (it took a bit for Megatron's numbers to move ahead of Wallace) but all in all I've gotten the bear plenty of times as well.
First 3 rounds I got Charles, Morris, and Frank Gore. If David Wilson is still there in the 4th round is it worth it to take him? Or should I get the likes of Vincent Jackson or Roddy White?
Draft starters before drafting backups. Unless the league has 3 RB or 2 flex starters, draft Jackson or White.
Help! I have the 6th pick in my draft. Can you rank lynch Charles spiller and rice. Thankyou
Glad to! It would Charles, Lynch, Spiller and Rice. For detail as to why, check out the TFS ESPN Insider perfect top 10 article.
Drafting 7th in a 12 team league. 1 pt for 25yds and 6 for TD? Who should I take T-Rich or Spiller?
Got Spiller rated higher than T-Rich. Both are top 10 caliber players but Spiller's got more upside because of the Bills run blocking.
Where do you rank McCoy among other running backs
Got him ranked ninth on the TFS Draft Guide RB cheat sheets.
Quick note - the draft guide is available at www.thefootballscientist.com. Check out my Twitter feed (@KCJoynerTFS) for a $5 discount code. Only site plug of the chat.
Last try TFS! Am I correct ranking these guys? Leveon Bell, Montee Ball, Eddie Lacy.
We like to reward persistence! I have them ranked Ball, Lacy, Bell but the closeness of their ranks (22-25) means it's almost a toss up. Although Ball does rate as a green-rated player while the other two are yellow-rated, so he does get the edge.
How much do 6 point passing TDs change the value of QBs?
In a best case scenario, the extra points are going to add somewhere around 80 points to the bottom line. It can increase the top QBs value by 25 percent. Definitely makes a huge difference.
Is it crazy top pick up Vereen as a rb #4 when I already have Ridley, D Murray and L MIller? I have to drop Gio Bernard for him. Thanks TFS!
Keep Gio. He's more apt to become part of a platoon backfield than Vereen is. Put it another way - trust Gio or trust a Belichick RB? Would rather trust Gio.
With the second pick would you take Martin foster or somebody else
Got Foster ranked 2nd. He's one of those rare backs who can get 400 rushes/targets.
Speaking of Montee Ball, why isn't he rated higher? He's a feature back with proven high-load experience in a Peyton Manning offense, I feel like we should be a little more excited about this. Thoughts?
It's the passing game. He's unproven as a pass blocker and the Denver offense has other backs who can serve as the third-down back. Being a two-down & GL back puts a cap on his value.
Wow and not one person is jumping on Doug Martin? I know it sounds like I am just picking off my team, but Martin had great numbers and I bet will be even better with Nicks and Joseph back.
Got Martin ranked fourth overall and he is one of only five blue-rated RBs. Definitely am sold on his upside this year.
Where do you rank RG3, both overall and among QBs? Is he ranked way too low in the ESPN rankings?
Got RG3 ranked fourth among QBs and he is one of only four blue-rated QBs. The injuries are a concern but not enough to keep him out of the top 4.
Who should I take Vincent Jackson or Cobb
They both get green ratings in the draft guide but Jackson is ranked just a bit higher.
I was just offered Gio Bernard for Run DMC, am I nutz for considering this? Bernard is healthy..................
Bernard is probably going to be a modern day James Brooks who gets 150-175 rushes/targets. That's valuable but DMC, assuming he's healthy, will get 275-300. It's not crazy to consider it (Gio could end up with RB2 value) but know that you could be giving up DMC's upside.
Plus, Hillman has been taking #1 reps so far in camp. Be carefull with Ball.
Very true. If Ball doesn't get pass blocking down, he could be a one-down and GL back. That's why he's on the precipice of the green and yellow ratings.
I am surprised you have lynch ranked ahead of spiller. I feel like spiller has way more upside
Agree on upside. The concern is whether or not Marrone will cap Spiller's workload. That's the only factor that kept Lynch in front of Spiller.
Anyone you are intentionally staying away from? Ryan Mathews, Tom Brady come to mind...
Got Brady ranked a lot lower than most. Maybe not quite as sold on Tavon Austin as most, at least in terms of non-PPR league value.
Do you think Sproles involvement will change with Sean Payton being back?
It might go to a bit more use in the run game. Still see him getting at least 150 rushes/targets if not a bit more.
Aside from health, is there any reason to rank Ivory ahead of Ryan Mathews? I mean, it's the Jets, after all.
Ivory does have a lot of burst in his step and the Jets run blocking is solid. Having said that, the draft guide still has Mathews rated ahead of Ivory.
Are you a foster fan or a Martin fan In other words who would you Take with the number two pick
Foster wins that battle. The concern about Martin is if he can replicate those two huge games (or at least come close to replicating them). Not sure he can and that's why he's a couple of ranks behind Foster.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mike Wallace
Forgot to post this earlier. It's not a chat without a Doug comment about Megatron and Mike Wallace.
Should I keep Doug Martin or Calvin Johnson 8 team PPR?
Would say Martin. Megatron is great but Martin got 71 targets last year and will probably get at least that many this year.
I don't buy Ridley as a top RB, can you convince me?
Vereen had a terrible GBYPA and this offense could be leaning more on the run this year. Those factors keep Ridley as a RB2.
Why is Martin ranked so lowOn most experts boards he is 2 or 3 back. Who else would you put ahead of him
Peterson is first. Got Foster second for the aforementioned reasons. Charles rates ahead of Martin for a number of reasons (check out the TFS ESPN Insider article on the perfect first-round for more specifics).
If healthy, can DeMarco put up some quality Metrics, like RB # 1 territory?
Yes, but he'll need a huge improvement over his 6.1 GBYPA last year. It could happen but the percentages say value him as a low-end RB2.
Any late round TEs that you particularly like this year?
Have been on the Brandon Myers bandwagon for a while. Got him ranked very high on the TE cheat sheet.
Help! I have the 7th pickPeterson Martin Charles foster spiller and lynch are off the boardWho should I take I can't decide between McCoy Morris Richardson and rice
Got Morris ranked 7th (assuming this is a standard scoring league) and none of the other available backs rank higher.
Are there any concerns that Andy Reid will stick to passing the ball and therefore hurt Charles value
Not really, as Charles has quality receiving skills. He'll be that offense's Brian Westbrook.
Hear ye, Hear ye, Hear ye....Calving Johnson is a Beast!!!!!!
Town Crier makes a visit...
Is Wallace's move to Miami likely to add or subtract the number of >s in relation to Megatron?
Add, especially early on. Wallace has a favorable schedule set up until Week 11 and Miami will go all out to make sure he takes full advantage of those matchups.
Wow, can't believe it's already been an hour! Couple of quick notes before heading out. The 2013 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available at www.thefootballscientist.com. It weighed in at 432 pages and has over 200 player write-ups, matchup charts, cheat sheets and a boatload of metrics. Check out the TFS Twitter feed (@KCJoynerTFS) for a $5 discount code. Thanks for all of the great questions and I hope to see you all here next week!