Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
Hey KC, I'm loving the draft guide. How much does pre-season performance affect your projections? For example, it looks like a combination of better than expected line play and maybe some renewed quickness is making CJ2K seem a little better prospect this season. Do you think CJ2K will have a better season than initially projected?
Glad you are enjoying the draft guide! Pre-season performance really doesn't impact things too much with the exception of injuries and positional battle winners becoming clarified. Still got CJ as a very good RB2.
Hey KC, in a deep league do you think Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, or Cordarrelle Patterson is worth a roster spot as a 4th or 5th WR. Thanks again.
Couldn't say WR4 for any of them if only because WR depth is strong enough that it shouldn't take a lottery pick to fill that spot. All make solid WR5 picks and terrific WR6 picks.
KC someone in my twelve team league is offering thier number eleven overall pick and thier fourth rounder for a second and third round pick do I do the trade? P.S. it is a snake format draft
Tough call without having more info. Would generally say no but it depends on what second round pick is being offered.
Hey KC! Thanks for all your great advice. What are your thoughts on Eddie Lacy if he wins the GB starting RB job?
He's the thunder back for that O and should be a good RB2. His rating will be going upwards in the next draft guide update.
Keeper: Reggie Bush for $19 or Julio Jones for $21?
Bush. It'll be easier to replace Jones production.
Hi KC, really enjoy your columns for underrated players! Would your draft strategy change at all for a league with many milestones? (points for 100 yards rushing a game, 200 yards passing a game, etc.)
Thanks! More articles like that will be posted on Insider over the next couple of weeks, so keep an eye out for them. Draft strategies do change depending on milestones but in general home run players are rated higher than singles hitters so it might not be a huge impact.
Hey KC, how often would you go RB/RB/RB? would you ever?
Just did that very thing in the Twitter Mock Draft. It just depends on what RBs are available at the third round pick.
I forgot to tell you that i already have the Number five overall pick
That would give you two top 11 picks and then nothing until round 4. As long as you can get 2 top-level RBs with those picks, it's a solid trade.
RB/RB/RB probably makes the most sense in a 8 team league right?
Scientist, my man! Did you see the Field Yates article about DuJuan Harris as the lead RB for the Pack? It convinced me that there is no reason to draft ANY Packers RB this year. Only 9 rushing TDs as a team last year, and we have no clue which back may get them. I'm staying away altogether, unless you convince me otherwise.
Did see that article - good work by Field. Still thinking GB is going to run the ball more often and Lacy will end up being the lead of that pack (pun intended). Franklin's grade will be dropping a bit in the next draft guide update.
How much of a premium would you place on QBs in a 6 point per TD and 20 yards per point league.
It adds about 20-25 percent to QB value. Rule of thumb - move their grade up 1.5 rounds in that case.
Hey KC, enjoying your draft guide. I'm in a 12 team keeper ppr league. i have the 8th pick. I kept Foster and Dez. I am thinking the top rbs will be gone by the time it gets to me. Would you take a chance on Lamar Miller over rbs like CJ?K, mjd, bush?
Glad you like the guide! Like Miller but can't rate him higher than those three in a PPR league.
My man KC Sunshine, which Skins receiving option do you foresee having the bigger fantasy year: Pierre Garcon or Fred Davis?
That's groovy. Got Garcon having the bigger year.
70s note - RIP to Lisa Robin Kelly, who played Laurie Forman on That 70s Show. She was hilarious and the show was never the same after she left.
Follow-up keeper: Bush at $19 or Bryant at $30? Thanks!
Tougher call! Still would say Bush given the lack of RB depth this year.
Have the 3rd pick in a ten team league. Thinking about grabbing my RB at 3, taking Dez in the second, and possibly Graham in the 3rd. Gives me three "blue" guys and might give Bush a shot at RB2? Am I crazy?
Three blue rated players are really hard to come by (there are only 12 in the entire draft guide) so if that plan can work, go for it. Especially if you can get Bush as a RB2.
Did I get the steal of the draft getting Shady McCoy in the 2nd round (2.6)? I got Spiller, McCoy, Larry Fitz and Victor Cruz, but I feel some buyer's remorse taking Cruz rather than one of the rookie RBs...did I do fine?
You might feel some remorse over Cruz but if you have Spiller and McCoy as the RBs, that team should do well.
Newsflash....I'm not going in the 3rd round anymore.
Not in most draft rooms. 27.6 ADP, so he's on the borderline.
I have the 6th pick in my keeper league...The best available players are AP, Foster, Lynch, McCoy, Morris, Forte, Ridley and Steven Jackson...Who do you project will be available with my 1st pick and who would you select?
Hitman rules. Lynch ranks 5th in my draft guide and Morris ranks 7th so getting either of them at No. 6 pick is good value. McCoy would be a solid pick (ranked No. 9).
Hey KC, do we need to just redownload the draft guide to get the updated version? How often do you update it? My draft is this weekend
The updated draft guide will be sent out tomorrow. An email will come over with a new link.
Quick note on the draft guide - it's available at www.thefootballscientist.com. Check out my Twitter feed @KCJoynerTFS for a $5 discount code. Only site plug of the chat.
Ryan and his WRs or Russel Wilson and his legs?
Ryan. He's the top-rated of the green-rated QBs.
Why is Demaryius thomas getting no love. Is Welker really going to eat into his production that much. Thomas is a shoe in for 1100 & 9 TDs right?
Got Demaryius rated No. 5 on my WR cheat sheet. Welker will take his production from the TEs and RBs.
G'Day Mate! I have the ninth pick in my 12 team standard league draft with some colleagues back in the States and was wondering who you were targeting with the first few picks at that spot? Was thinking it's best to go RB/WR/RB?
G'Day! Glad to hear from Australia again - we've sent more than a few draft guides/book down under over the years. Nos. 9-12 on my overall chart are McCoy, T-Rich, Gore and Forte. Would go RB/RB/WR unless Calvin or Dez are available with the second round pick.
KC, I haven't been able to make your chats this football preseason but I always ask you about Cutler because I love him and you hate him. Is THIS the yearI get to throw it in your face? Give me his stat line this year. Thanks!
I don't hate Jay Cutler - I hate his lousy decision making. Did a 2013 BDR projection for ESPN The Magazine and still got him pegged as having one of the highest BDRs in the NFL.
Related note - If I really wanted to bash Cutler, I would have sent out a link to The Onion article about him. Hilarious stuff.
I'm sure you've answered this before, and while I don't mind getting a TE late this year assuming I could get a Myers and Fleener combo, what would be the earliest you take Gronk in a 12 team, PPR league?
Gronk ranks No. 64 on the TFS PPR overall cheat sheet. There is just too much of an injury risk there to rate him higher.
YES! Besides hoping that he gets red zone looks, do you forecast much for Julius Thomas, or is it that the 3 others will be Peyton's main guys?
Yes, yes, yes! My youngest son is a huge Daniel Bryan fan. Competing with the Denver WRs and Ball for red-zone TDs will keep Thomas' value diminished.
Expecting big things from Torrey Smith? I just don't see him ever being more than a 900/7 TD type guy...
The draft guide write-up about Smith says he'll get 125 targets but defenses are going to go all out to see if he can handle tough coverage competition. Not sure he'll be up to it (his numbers there last year were less than stellar) and it's why he ranks No. 30 on the WR cheat sheet.
KC, You forgot to predict Cutler's stat line this year. Man up!
Only prediction is he throws at least 12 interceptions.
I'm sad! You don't put much stock in the preseason, but your QB flier Vick looks sharp, as does DJax..is he a WR2 with upside? This is awesome!
Kelso has to be quite down right now. Like Vick as a flyer but am concerned his turnover propensity will cause him to get benched. Still kicking DJax's value around - got him rated No. 46 WR in the current draft guide, am considering changing that grade.
Hey KC, in a ppr league that also has return yards (1 pt for 10 yds), how high would you feel comfortable taking Darren Sproles?
Got him ranked No. 21 overall in a PPR so adding in the return yards should move him to RB1 status. Would strongly consider taking him in round 1.
Here's my prediction for myself- 3,900 yards passing, 26 TDs and 14 INTs.
I can agree with the passing yards and ints. Would knock 4 TDs off of that.
Would you feel comfortable with Gronk and Fred Davis as your 2 TEs? Any recommendations if not? Thanks KC.
Would be good with that combo. Might consider Brandon Myers as well, as he has top-5 TE potential.
Reach for Brees or wait many rounds and get Stafford and watch him blow up?
General rule this year is to suggest waiting as long as possible on QBs. Exception would be if Brees falls to the third round - then the upside is enough to justify the selection.
In a 12 team 2 QB lg, you think it's best to grab a QB within the 1st 2 rounds?
Generally speaking, you should take at least one. Did a 2 QB mock on Mock Draft Monday (which will be occurring again this coming week) and many teams regretted not taking their 2nd QB until later in the draft. You should get 2 QBs by at least round 4.
Are either T.Y Hilton or Mike Williams potential WR2's. Also, what are your thoughts on Miles Austin and Lance Moore, who are usually still on the board in RD 8?
Like Hilton, really like Williams value, as he in many ways was as productive as VJax last year. Got Austin as a top 22 WR and Moore ranked No. 33 at WR.
I'm hearing people calling last year a fluke. I'm a bonafide top 5 pick right?
The two big games are what are throwing people off but Martin also had to deal with getting some of the worst run blocking in the NFL. Having a fully healthy O line will keep him at a top-5 level.
KC, I am drafting at #12 (and 13) in a 12 team league. I am assuming that the top 10 RB's and Calvin will be off the board. What would you do at 12 and 13. I am thinking CJ or Forte and Dez but I don't love my options.
Posting a question 25 times is not a way to get the question answered.
Quick note - the best way to get a question to the front of the pack is to add some humor. Just remember, it's PG humor here, not R.
Would you change draft strategy with a league that drafts remarkably poorly? Going RB/RB/RB early may cause me problems when good Rbs and Wrs fall past the mid rounds.
It would still be worth stockpiling top-level RBs, as there is so much depth at WR and QB that you'll still be able to stock a great lineup later on.
I know its only Week 2 pre season but is it time to get concerned about Mike Wallace?
No way. That offense was very good at getting vertical last year and will be better than that this year.
We're 37 minutes into this chat and I have no clue if Calvin Johnson is greater than Mike Wallace. Unbelievable.
Ah, forgot about that. Let's see...
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
There we go. That's better.
Fair enough. I apologize for the repetition. I shall now proceed to lash myself
Apology accepted. Now let me take a look at that question.
Picks No. 12-14 on my overall draft board are Forte, Johnson and Bryant. Would suggest valuing them in that order.
What are some two TE offenses that might be worth watching this year? I think the Bengals have a solid duo
Clown Heaven - who knew there was such a place?! Like the Bengals duo but in general try to avoid fantasy TEs in 2 TE offenses. Big exception to that rule is Fleener, as he will be used as a flex TE quite often.
You just told everyone it's the not the way to get questions answered, but you rewarded him by doing just that. Ten lashes for you!
Reward after punishment - what would Pavlov say about that?
I have adrain peterson I was offered welker and jimmy graham for trade would that be worth it, my other backs are MJD and bush
There are almost zero trade options that would be good enough to warrant letting All Day go. This isn't one of them. Keep him.
Had a draft last night and took a late round flier on Franklin based on your recommendations. Should I have taken a flier on Kembrell Thompkins instead?
I still like Franklin but just think he will end up having more value a few weeks into the season rather than out of the gate. Still like him better than Thompkins.
Are the rumors of Foster decline to much? Would you rather have Foster, Spiller or Muscle Hamster at pick 2 in PPR?
Still got Foster ranked No. 2 overall. Missing PT in the preseason just isn't a concern. Heck, Franco Harris used to say he wouldn't have made the Steelers roster if they were judging his value solely on his preseason performance.
Finally made it to a chat, was on vacation for a while, beautiful up in Canada this time of year Hey! I know WR is really deep this year, and I also know you are higher on Nicks than most people, but what other WR's are being undervalued the most..
Great to have you back in the chat! Canada is a great place to visit (can't wait to take the kids up there). I just wrote an entire article for Insider on undervalued WRs and Nicks was one of them.
Volkoff was as American as you, KC! What's your latest take on the Rams RB situation...And if you were StL, would you have tried to keep SJax for one more year?
Just read his bio a few days ago. He was actually born in the USSR and left under the auspices of wanting to see the world. Truth is he hated the Soviet Union but he couldn't say that for fear they would banish his parents to Siberia. After many years he decided to take on a Soviet wrestling persona as a way to put down the regime he hated so much. Am sold on Richardson and will be moving his grade much higher in the draft guide update.
Ha!... can you give us a few of those names, I'm drafting this weekend and I don't see the article out yet...
Well, Dez and Wallace make the list as well. Full article can be found here - http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/9566303/fantasy-football-2013-dez-bryant-leads-undervalued-wrs
I know rookies always present unknowns and risks - but DeAndre Hopkins seems like a great value pick - he is the clear starter and #2 on his team.
Putski was cool but he was a cheap imitation of The Mighty Igor. Had Hopkins on the borderline of a red- or yellow-rating in the current draft guide, will be moving his value up to WR5 or higher status in the update.
What's for dinner tonight?
Chicken and potatoes. Basic energy fare. Good stuff.
Loved your underrated articles the past week or so. With that said, you had Cook as one of your favorite TEs. Have you seen chemistry issues so far between him and Bradford?
When it comes to chemistry, it pays to take the long view. They might not be quite in synch now but over the course of the season I've got a lot of faith it'll work out.
who is the jamaal charles handcuff and should i care? Oh, and wooooo to you sir
Ouch. Give me The Nature Boy cutting a promo - he'd still be better than most of the wrestlers out there today. Knile Davis would be the handcuff for Charles.
Rule of thumb for what % of the auction budget should be spent on the the starting skill players? I'm thinking at least 80%?
That sounds about right. Planning on doing an auction addition to the guide at some point, just not sure if it will be this season.
In all of my recent mock drafts Ball is going 2 rounds before hillman. Are you confident hell get the starting nod this season?
Not as confident as a few weeks ago. That is starting to look like a RBBC situation.
Is Isaiah pead worth a #4 RB spot or is an upgrade in order? Also is Joique Bell or Lance Dunbar worth picking up off waiver?
Am thinking an upgrade could be in order for Pead. Like Bell a lot, as he could end up as a the RB2 in Detroit.
Do you see any more two tight end offenses becoming as good as the Pats were at one time? Is the reason you're not targeting TEs in two TE offenses because they don't have elite quarterbacks like Brady? Or because the TEs just aren't good enough?
It has as much to do with target volume. It normally takes 75 targets to make a TE fantasy worthy and 100 to make him a good starter. Teams normally don't throw enough passes to TEs to give two TEs either of those volume levels.
Whose the back up RB to get in Dallas? randle?
He's the pick at the moment.
Who's a D/ST I can acquire in the 2nd to last round that can pay off?
St. Louis. Got them pegged as a very good sleeper D/ST this year.
PLEASE HELP!!! i can keep 2 of the 3,, shady mccoy, aj green and spiller
Spiller and Shady. Green is great but he'll be easier to replace than the other two.
2QB league, already have Peterson. Take Spiller or Brees with #6 overall?
Brees is tempting but take Spiller. QB depth is simply incredible this year and NO is going to run more than they did last year.
Are any of the NFC East TE's, besides Witten, good starting fantasy options in a 12 team standard?
What I remember about BBM is when he didn't catch Jim Cornette at the end of the scaffold match. It's not like Cornette weighed a whole lot (his weight gain came later). Myers is a good fantasy starting TE option in the NFCE.
Andrew Luck is polarizing this year, either he'll have a Peyton-esque rise his 2nd year, or may have worse numbers in a WCO..your thoughts?
Got Luck rated No. 12, the last of the green-rated QBs. They will protect him more this year and that will cause a drop-off in his off the charts vertical attempt volume.
I have a blade in my left wrist band... $8 Crabtree in a keeper league with a 12 player bench, are you keeping him?
True story - he now runs a rib shack. Can't imagine eating food that Abby makes but it evidently is a successful eatery. Re: Crabtree, depends on the other options. He's a very good WR on a run-first O, so in general he might not make for the best keeper even if the injury isn't accounted for.
Last one: Richardson a top 20 rb?
That hour went by quick! Really appreciate all of the great questions. Couple of notes before heading out. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Check out the TFS ESPN Insider articles on the most undervalued players in fantasy football and the WRs with the toughest/easiest matchup schedules. The TFS 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is available at www.thefootballscientist.com. Check out the Twitter feed for a $5 discount code. Thanks again for all of the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!