Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
Just purchased the draft guide and can't wait to put it to use this weekend! I am in a 12 team ppr keeper league in which most of the top RB options are gone. With a mid-round pick should I go best available RB (SJax, MJD, Miller) or best available player from the Top 88? Have Charles and Dez coming back
Thanks for getting the guide! If any of those aforementioned RB options are available, draft them. The depth difference between RBs and QBs/WRs is so significant that RBs should be prioritized whenever possible.
With the suspension of felton does that hurt AP for the first 4 games?
Peterson led the league in GBYPA yet had some of the worst run blocking in the league last year. Not too worried about his ability to break off gainers with less than stellar blocking.
KC, huge fan. How would you feel about this team in an 8 team ppr league? Thanks.QB: Matt RyanRB: Foster,Charles, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, Daryl RichardsonWR: Dez, Cobb, Decker, Tavon, Torrey Smith, Ty hiltonTE: Owen Daniels, Brandon MyersD/ST: PatriotsK: Prater
That team is pretty stacked. Might be a bit worried about the D/ST but otherwise that's a team that can win a lot of games.
Is the PPR modifier enough to push Marcel Reese over Ben Tate?
Tough call. Would probably say no at this point because of Foster's injury issues.
Related note - a draft guide update will go out tomorrow to those who have purchased the guide.
Better to go with a low green RB like Miller or a high green WR like White in a ppr format?
Go RB green. A good yellow-rated WR will get closer to green-rated points than most yellow-rated RBs.
Best late round flier: Woodhead, Redman, Moreno
Would say Woodhead if only because the SD backfield is less crowded.
What are your thoughts on TY Hilton, do you think he will still perform even with DHeyBey taking his snaps? Do you still like him over the likes of J. Gordon or Emmanuel Sanders?
Gordon is a risky prospect in some ways but he's still rated much higher on the TFS WR cheat sheet than those other two.
KC, I missed big on qbs in my draft and am now stuck picking among Flacco, Freeman, Palmer, Tanehill and Dalton. Who would you suggest? Hurry, I got big plans tonight!
Clowney has only reached the surface of his otherworldly skills. If he starts to tap into his talent even more this year, he could be a Heisman contender. Those QBs actually aren't a bad crew to choose from. Got Freeman rated highest.
How did you like your team in the latest experts' mock draft 10tm std? What pick were you again?
Believe it was pick No. 7. Probably wouldn't take T-Rich that high again (it was a rushed pick). All in all, liked the team a lot, as most of the picks I wanted fell to the place I was hoping they would fall.
In a 12 team league, I waited on QB's and ended up with Cutler as my starter. Free agents include Big Ben, Alex Smith, Flacco and Tannehill. Would you rather pick one of those up as a plug and play strategy or just roll with Cutler and hope he finally has a monster year! Thank you!
There are so many quality QB options out there this year that it really is unnecessary to take a risk at that position. Got those four rated Ben, Smith, Tannehill and Flacco so get one of them and play the hot hand each week.
Re: TY Hilton....Are you saying you would drop TY Hilton for either Gordon or E. Sanders?
It depends on one factor - the risk elements on the rest of the team. Gordon is a risky prospect and if the team has a number of other risky players, keep Hilton. If the other players are fairly safe (talking mostly about starters here), drop T.Y. and pick up Gordon.
Where do you have Gronk right now with his health issues? Thanks for your good work
Still got Gronk third on the TE cheat sheet. His upside when healthy is so great that even if he plays only 10 games, his value would still be higher than most other TEs.
Hey KC. Any substantial difference at TE between Olsen, Myers and Pettigrew?
Got Pettigrew rated quite low (see the ESPN Insider article on overvalued tight ends for more specifics). Myers made it to the top of the undervalued TEs list (also an Insider article), so put him at the top of this list.
TFS - I'll be a yellow rated QB next year after Flynn and Pryor stink it up this year and they have no other choice but to let me throw and develop.Anyway, would you rather have Lamar Miller / Decker / C. Shorts or G. Bernard / Mike Wallace / Decker with only 1 WR of those starting and the RB goes on the bench
The Raiders do have some serious QB woes. Hard to watch. Would rather have Bernard/Wallace/Decker.
KC My Man! Are you telling me that if I can manage to draft a team full of blue and green starters and maybe a few high yellow reserves, I'll be looking at a championship? That would be glorious!
That's the idea - stack up blue- and green-rated starters and yellow-rated backups.
Hey KC. Is this statement true about Darren Sproles in a 12 team? Non-PPR = RB3. .5 PPR = RB2. Full PPR = RB1?
Got Sproles as a RB2 in a non-PPR environment. He's a borderline RB1 in any PPR environment.
Used your guide for my draft. how does this lineup look in a 12 team ppr?Qb - rg3Rb- j . CharlesRb - sprolesWr - MarshallWr - jordy Nelson Flex - Reggie bush Te - Myers Defense - cincy K - Walsh Bench Qb - freeman Rb - woodhead, MorenoWr - hartline, c. Patterson, stills,
Like that team a lot. RB may be just a bit thin but all in all that team should have a really good shot as long as health holds up.
how many blue rated players are you able to get in your mocks on average? i was able to get Martin/Bryant/Rodgers in that order, no other team in my league has more than 1. locked up at this point? RB2 Bush, WR2 Bowe, and i got Gonzo in the 6th ...
Depends on the draft order. Since I've been going RB/RB/RB in most drafts, the teams sometimes get a blue-rated RB but I'm OK with three green-rated RBs if the first round pick is too low to get a blue. RG3 has fallen to the lower rounds in every draft, so the teams tend to get at least one blue-rated player (or two depending on D/ST).
Hey KC, draft guide worked great last note in my 12 man league. However I jumped the gun early on rg3 after taken jimmy graham in the 2nd. Ended up witb this we crew of Wallace, tavon Austin, gordon, and broyles. How bad is this? I really took some heat for a bad draft. Tell me their is hope for these guys.
The team might hit a WR road bump out of the gate, as Gordon is suspended, Austin's a rookie and Broyles is coming back from injury. Long view is things should be OK but it might pay to try to get a solid WR2/WR3.
Where's Doug (MI) with his amazing analysis? In a 1/2 PPr, how would you stack up J. Bell, Helu, and Moreno as late fliers with high ceilings?
Forgot about that - will correct it momentarily. Would probably rank them Bell, Moreno then Helu.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
Ask and ye shall receive.
loved your draft guide. color ratings are really helpful! in my 12 team ppr keeper league - i have rbs: foster, wilson, cjk, vereen, drich..wrs - dez, hilton, gordon, mi floyd, randle, thomkpins..would you trade any of the rbs to upgrade for a wr1 or wr2? thanks!
Thanks! Tough call, as the RB crew is really good on that team. Might consider trading Vereen and a WR (Hilton?) for a WR2.
Hey KC, if you start out with Charles, Ridley, and MJD, and that leaves you with not a clear cut WR1 is that a good or bad move?
In the mocks I've done this year, the WR depth is such that there are quality pass catchers left even after going RB/RB/RB. Having two WR2 types to go along with those RBs is a pretty strong combination.
If you could choose where you draft in a 10 team league, would you always go #1?
Quick note - asked my eldest to pick between Kate Upton and Melanie Iglesias and he went with Kate. Must have something to do with having about 10 of her pictures on his wall. As far as picks go, getting a blue-rated RB is a big plus so the pick would have to be in the top 5. Probably fifth is best.
Dwayne Bowe vs. Jordy Nelson in PPR?
Fairly close call but Bowe gets the nod.
Does Deangelo Williams have a chance at being a top 10 fantasy back this season? Worried about J. Stewart's eventual comeback.
Might not go as far as top 10 but the news about Stewart just doesn't seem to be getting any better. That will shoot Williams up the RB cheat sheet in tomorrow's update. Probably thinking top 30 and maybe even higher than that.
In a keeper league is it smarter to keep a WR like AJ Green or Jimmy Graham due to the lack of depth at TE?
Green isn't easy to replace but he's easier to replace than Graham. Would pick Graham.
How come you are so low on Garcon, is it health concerns or ability that keeps him as a yellow rating?
There is a long explanation but the short version is too many of his big plays have occurred due to circumstances that have nothing to do with his talent level. When he starts producing big plays without the luck element, I'll start to be convinced.
Pick 8 in a 12 team 1 point PPR league. Went McCoy at 8, followed by Sproles at 17. Didn't pick up another running back till Ivory at pick 70ish. Peyton was still available in the 4th and drafted a few WR's in between. How would you feel about those 3 as your core RB's?
Like the McCoy and Sproles picks a lot. Ivory is a risky pick as a flex but as long as you can keep him as a backup RB, it's an OK way to go.
Are you ok with Mathews as your 4th RB?
Got him rated as a RB3, so having him as a RB4 is a luxury.
Gronk for Cam or Tony G for RG3 which trade is more fair in your mind.
Gronk for Cam. The other trade is a bit too out of balance in my view.
KC! I may have retired from fantasy football but I just have to know who "your guy(s)" are this year. Past year picks were CJ2K, Hakeem Nicks, etc.
Got a few. Myers is one. Romo is another (think he'll have a top-5 caliber season). Like the Rams D/ST a lot.
What is the strategy with the Colts backfield??? Can Bradshaw be trusted over the rest of them???
Good to see Frank back on the case. It's a platoon or RBBC situation there but Bradshaw is the one to trust the most out of that group.
PPR keeper league that also gives 6 pts for passing TD's. If I have two blue players already (Dez and Charles), ok with taking Rodgers in the first or still stack up on RB's?
Unless something happened in the last couple of days that I'm unaware of, Jim Hellwig is actually alive and well. As long as you can snag a green-rated RB as the RB2 (and maybe even get one as a RB3), getting Rodgers in round 1 is good in that situation.
I know Foster was previously your #2, that still the case? Charles, Lynch, Spiller, in that order?
Foster has since dropped to No. 6 on the RB chart.
A combination of my draft strategy and surprising value at RB has left me weak at WR (Dez is my only reliable starter). My RBs are Morris, Sproles, Miller, Bernard, Ridley, and Joique Bell. Should I trade an RB for a WR now or wait for the season to start?
Is that Mongo the character from Blazing Saddles (RIP Alex Karras) or Steve "Mongo" McMichael of Chicago Bears and WCW fame? That's a stocked RB corps and one that should allow you the luxury to trade for a better WR. Just depends on how bad of shape the WR corps is in.
How did I fare with my Top picks? PPR! Charles, DEZ, M.Ryan, Welker, Gronk? How many of these guys are blue rated players?
Of all of the people to not buy the guide! Thought you'd be good to go on that front, Mikey. Charles and Dez are blue-rated out of that bunch.
Your colleagues at ESPN have mixed opinions about Andrew Luck. Can he be a successful starter in a standard league?
Count me in that same boat. He's a green-rated QB but he ranks 12th on the QB chart. Borderline starter material, especially in this day of insanely good QB depth.
Lacy moving up to green in the next update due to increased workload?
Yep. He was right on the borderline of yellow/green and will be making the jump.
Is 16 too early to go Graham? I feel like I have a knowledge advantage over my league mates, that throughout the season I can find the Alfred Morris/Victor Cruz surprises somewhat reliably, but elite TEs are almost impossible to replace.
If you are fairly certain some players will fall well below where they should, that's a strong justification to take Graham earlier. A good example of adjusting draft value based on knowledge of the draft room.
Does preseason effect your rankings at all? For instance Jason Witten has been staying on the line to help blocking w/OL. Any effect?
Outside of injuries/position battles, preseason really doesn't have a huge impact on the TFS rankings. Witten doing more blocking in preseason probably won't be a precursor of his regular season duties.
LOL! My wife and I gotta stop having babies! too much Money being spent on diapers right now! LOL! Are you high on Ryan and Welker? I feel Welker will be money in Denver?
It's cool - diapers are definitely more important than fantasy football :-)Ryan is on the borderline of the green/blue ranking. Welker is a green-rated WR, just can't move him higher than a WR2 (the target math just doesn't add up in Denver to get him higher on the WR charts).
How do you like B.Hartline? Esp with M.Wallace there to stretch the field for MIA?
He had fantastic metrics last year, especially on downfield throws. Got him ranked as a quality sleeper pick this year.
Ben Tate or Bernard Pierce? Is round 10 appropriate for both?
Poor Joey - he gets yelled at by Kareem and then has to put up with the captain. He would have been better off sleeping through the flight. That's a good round for those two, although Tate may have to go a bit earlier depending on how Foster's injury status impacts his value.
Do you like what you are seeing from Blaine Gabbert? Cecil Shorts is a regular on my teams this year!
Not really much of a Gabbert backer but got a lot of faith Shorts can produce with Gabbert under center.
How many blue rated players do I have (ppr)- Ryan, Megatron, Spiller, Bush, Forte, Colston, Finley?
Megatron and Spiller are the blue-rated players out of that group. There are only 12 blue-rated players overall (not counting D/ST), so it's hard to get more than two in any draft room.
Will any Denver RBs (not named Ball) or any Pittsburgh RBs be on your team Week 1?
Just reading about him last week - he evidently was a jobber at times but also was a headliner in some places. Eclectic career. Probably won't be any Denver or Pittsburgh RBs on the TFS roster (outside of Ball).
your draft guide helped me in trades for my keeper league..now i own a stable of foster, spiller, martin, lamar miller, vereen, drich..thanks KC!
Sounds like a really strong team!
What was I thinking when I drafted T Richardson at #7 in the latest mock? I even said he's got one of the most difficult schedules for a RB.
Hate to say it but that was one of those quick picks (clock was running down and a selection had to be made). Not entirely upset about the pick, as Richardson ranks 10th on the overall board but it isn't a pick I'd make if I had it to do over again.
KC - Draft guide was great help for this year. Went with a combo of RG III and Dwayne Bowe over Peyton and Cecil Shorts. Is that the right move?
Those are pretty even duos but all in all that would be the preferred TFS move.
Who would you take instead of Richardson if you could do the draft over?
If Vick is your starting QB how nervous are you? Scale of 1-10 (1 being not worried at all!). And are you more worried that he will get hurt or that he will be a turnover machine?
Six or seven. His injury history and the fact that Kelly has absolutely no patience for turnovers (Oregon led the FBS in turnover differential last year) means he could be benched if he keeps making the same types of crazy passes he's made his entire career.
Which Rams WR or TE do you think will have the best fantasy season?
Austin rates highest on the boards but Givens isn't far behind.
Overall, I like the work of Trent Baalke in SF, but I didn't like the first picks from 2012. Jenkins has already been shipped out and LaMichael James doesn't seem like much without Chip Kelley. What do you think is his ceiling? Thanks.
James had huge GBYPA totals under Kelly. As long as he holds up physically, his ceiling is at least RB3 but it doesn't look like SF is going to utilize him in that way.
When people say they own 4 of the top 20 running backs, do you really believe them?
Based on some of the stories I've heard from draft rooms this year, it wouldn't be a total shock, especially in 10-team drafts.
Whats your take on Russell Wilson this season?
The summary in the draft guide is that change in run/pass ratio will be a sum negative. Even if it is a break even move, it isn't a plus and it will keep his value about where it was last year. Got him ranked No. 9 on the QB board because of this.
And the lesson to chatters for this week is, even if you don't have time to research and rank a lot of players before your draft, try to rank your top 10 or 12 players, at least. That way, you won't face the clock running down at #7.
Well, it's actually called don't have a conversation with someone when the draft starts. Thought I had a bit more time before my pick and then looked up and had about 10 seconds. Stay focused!!!!
have randall cobb as my WR1 in PPR...unlikely I can upgrade without trading RB depth. Thoughts?
Got him ranked No. 13 on the WR board so he isn't far from being a WR1. Woudn't worry too much about it as long as the RB depth is strong.
Where u surprised Lesnar beat Punk at SS? Whos next for the Beast? Taker at mania? Who do u like out of BJGE and Mendenhall?
Saw a rumor that they could be moving this feud in a way to peak as the main event at WrestleMania. That would be really cool and a must watch at the Joyner household. Got Law First just slightly ahead of Mendenhall.
Re-assure me that picking Alex Smith (2-QB league) over Flacco, Dalton, Freeman, and Palmer was a good call. (League counts sacks and incompletions.)
Smith had fantastic vertical metrics last year and had a history of quality numbers there. Being in an Andy Reid offense will help him get even more out of those skills. Dalton and Flacco have brutal schedules, Freeman is inconsistent and Palmer has no O line.
How did I do last night in 12 team 0.5 PPR? I went for RG III in the 5th (#52) with Romo/Luck also still left based on your undervalued article.QB-RGIII, RB-Spiller, Bush, WR-Dez, Wayne, TE-Cameron, Flex-D Richardson, K-Tucker, D/ST - Green Bay, BN-Garcon, Shorts, B Tate, J Bell
I like this team. Quality QB (as long as you have a good backup for RG3), very good RBs (really like D-Rich at flex). Should solid at WR2 with Wayne and Garcon.
Hey KC- How do adjust your draft strategy for crazy scoring settings. I'm in a league where QBs get .5 pts per completion. To adjust your draft board, do you project fantasy pts. or more gut feel?
In general, just take the scoring setting and see how many points it would add to the standard QB. Express that on a percentage basis (i.e. it would add 25 points, which is X percent of a QBs value) and then adapt accordingly. Adjust by rounds (i.e. 10 percent moves QBs up half of a round, 20 percent by a full round, etc.).
D-Rich is falling in so many of my drafts. Seems like a great value and the opportunity is there, right? What are the knocks against him?
The possible split carry situation. I'm not too concerned about that since Richardson had a fantastic GBYPA last year and should be able to deal with a strong workload.
How predictable is GBR for one year to the next (both from an offense and defense perspective)? High correlation or not meaningful?
It is most helpful on the edges, meaning teams that are really good or really bad tend to stay in the same area the next year (barring injury factors).
Do you think D Thomas' value/production goes up or down with Welker?
Roughly stays the same. They'll take targets from the TEs and RBs and give them to Welker.
Well, that hour flew by in a hurry! Couple of quick notes before heading out. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The 2013 TFS Draft Guide is available for purchase at www.thefootballscientist.com. Check out the Twitter feed for a $5 discount code. Thanks again for all of the great questions and I hope to see you all here next week to discuss Week 1!