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November 19, 1:00 PM ET
Chat with David Schoenfield

David Schoenfield
  (1:02 PM)

Let's talk some baseball ....

Will B (Bozeman, MT)

DS, thanks for the chat. With his signing this offseason I think the phillies GM has certainly earned his nickname. Ruin tomorrow jr.

David Schoenfield
  (1:03 PM)

Come on, Marlon Byrd is 36 and Carlos Ruiz will be 35. They're in the prime of their careers!

Hoss (Austin)

David Ortiz having only 40+ career WAR suggests to me that defense is vastly overvalued.

David Schoenfield
  (1:05 PM)

According to Baseball-Reference, Ortiz has lost about 14 runs of value to defense -- about 1.4 wins. But he's lost 170 runs via their positional adjustment -- basically, the idea that a DH has to hit better than a second baseman or a shortstop to keep his job. WAR isn't really saying that defense is overrated, just that you really have to hit if you play a non-premium offensive position to have the same value as an up-the-middle guy.

Hoss (Austin)

How best to arrange the Red Sox infield for 2014?

David Schoenfield
  (1:06 PM)

I think they let Drew walk (don't want to give him a 2- or 3-year deal) and play Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third. Less sure of Napoli, but not really another obvious first-base option, so I think he comes back.

David Schoenfield
  (1:07 PM)

And I'm fine with the Bogaerts/Middlebrooks combo. I think Bogaerts can play short and Middlebrooks did play better after coming back from the minors (although looked bad in the postseason).

Tim (Atlanta)

What are your thoughts on the Tim Hudson deal?

David Schoenfield
  (1:08 PM)

Loved it for the Giants. Hudson can still pitch, ERA was a little misleading, gets groundballs, ankle injury shouldn't affect him moving forward. He'll be 39 but not a guy who relies on velocity anyway. For a team that desperately needed a starter, good signing at a reasonable rate.

Matt T (Boston, MA)

Hey Dave, I was wondering if you could explain to me why players such as Ryne Sandberg, Cal Ripken and others sometimes have a difficult time finding work after baseball? I feel as though the teams they were successful for would want to rehire them in some capacity, but it rarely happens. Why is that?

David Schoenfield
  (1:10 PM)

Ripken has some business enterprises he's involved with -- owns a minor league team with his brother, some food products. Plus he does some announcing. I'm just guessing he didn't/doesn't want the day-to-day grind of a job IN baseball (managing, coaching).

David Schoenfield
  (1:11 PM)

Sometimes, the star players don't want to put in the work or maybe they just have enough money and don't HAVE to work. Obviously, Sandberg wanted to manage and to his credit went down and managed in Triple-A. Most star players don't want to do that.

John (Cincinnati, Oh)

Best guess, who does Jose Bautista open 2014 season with?

David Schoenfield
  (1:12 PM)

Blue Jays

jeff (pacheco)

Why are the Rockies not giving Rex Brothers a chance to close? Why sign Hawkins to close for one year?

David Schoenfield
  (1:12 PM)

Does it really matter? Ninth inning not really any more important than the eighth. And I'd predict Brothers ends up with more saves anyway.

Tim (AZ)

The Braves give away 60 millions to free agents like water. Why have we not seen an extension to young players since Mac signed one and Frenchy turned one down?

David Schoenfield
  (1:14 PM)

Braves haven't really done that -- B.J. Upton is the one big free agent they've signed in recent years. That said, given their local TV contract (one of the worst in the majors) they're going to have some tough decisions to make. Probably won't be able to afford all their young guys.

Ron (North Dakota)

HI David- Do you think Dozier peaked last year if the Twins would trade someone, trade him and keep Rosario? I think Rosario's bat is more legit and his glove will play. And I know Mauer lose's vale by his move to first, but with his OBP, hit tool and doubles power and his potential glove at first, doesn't he regain some value and should be an above average first baseman? Who knows, maybe without the grind from catching he might hit 18-20 homers? What are your thoughts? Thanks!!

David Schoenfield
  (1:16 PM)

Just read (Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus) that Rosario's glove is pretty shaky for second, so no guarantee that he stays there. I wouldn't say Dozier peaked as much as this is probably what he is; he'll be 27, so not really at an age where's likely to improve much. Mauer will still be valuable at first with his OBP. I thought it was the right decision to make.

Jimbo (Suffern, NY)

With good-but-not-great players like Choo and Ellsbury likely to command nine-figure contracts, the trade market looks better and better every day. Shouldn't the Mets spend that kind of money on a guy like Tanaka, who not only has a chance to be a superstar who deserves that level of $, but also gives them the added pitching depth they need in order to trade some of their young hurlers for a Tulo/Cargo/Kemp? (Please ignore their financial woes in your consideration)

David Schoenfield
  (1:17 PM)

Sure, makes sense, although it's unclear whether Tanaka will now be coming over this year. (MLB and Japan haven't agreed on a posting system.)

sean (ny, ny)

Will any of the 3-4 year contacts (Peralta, Cruz, etc.) or 6+ year contracts (Choo, Ellsbury) not be considered bad after 2 years? Thanks.

David Schoenfield
  (1:17 PM)

I think there's a good chance the Ellsbury one works out. He'd be the one player I'd risk going six years with.

Dingo (Portland)

What happens in left for the Giants? Does Sabs wait till July 31? Is Willingham available?

David Schoenfield
  (1:19 PM)

Seems like a Sabean type of move. Don't see them spending another $90 million+ on an outfielder after signing Pence. Granderson could be a second-tier guy, but he's probably not a good fit for AT&T, where fly balls to right go to die.

Eddie (Fresno)

Do you think the Giants are still in on Arroyo and/or Haren? If they were to sign Arroyo, they could be really tough in that ballpark.

David Schoenfield
  (1:20 PM)

Would love Arroyo in that park and they do need another starter. Arroyo said yesterday he's looking for a three-year deal, which I think he'll get from somebody, but that may price the Giants out. Haren more likely on maybe a one-year deal + an option.

Adam (DC)

What uniform will Price and Scherzer be wearing next year?

David Schoenfield
  (1:21 PM)

Scherzer -- Tigers. Price -- Rangers. (Sleeper: Diamondbacks.)

Tarek (NYC)

David, any chance someone else signs Cano. I don't want the Yanks to give him 8 years at any price.

David Schoenfield
  (1:22 PM)

Could see the Nationals (move Rendon to third, Zimmerman to first) or the Rangers. Rangers have the money, need a big lefty bat. Sign Cano, trade Kinsler for an outfielder, trade Profar in a Price deal. How's that sound? (The rest of the AL just threw up.)

Don (California)

Gronk DID NOT "FIGHT" HIS WAY TO GET OUT OF JUECKLEY'S GRIP. IT WAS BY THE "RULES" THE RIGHT CALL, BY THE "RULES". What everyone doesn't realize is the NFL has a "rulebook" that changes every year and it's posted right before the 1st pre-season game. Rules, Rules, Rules get it in yer heads people. A good game and more games that'll shake up the season, watch out.

David Schoenfield
  (1:23 PM)

Wrong chat, buddy.

Jack M (TN)

I have read that several teams are interested in Ike Davis from the Mets. Where do you see him going (if anywhere) and who do the Mets receive for him? Thanks!

David Schoenfield
  (1:24 PM)

Good buy-low candidate for the Rays. Not sure what the match is, but Davis seems like a Tampa kind of player and Loney is a free agent.

Pepe (Boston)

I'm always teasing my Yankee fans friends because they have the all-star team from 2001, but now that it is actually a possibility that Cano signs elsewhere, can you see the Yanks being competitive without Cano in 2014? I think they could be.

David Schoenfield
  (1:24 PM)

Too early to say. With their roster now? Not even close. If they sign Choo, Beltran, Kuroda, Tanaka and Joe Nathan? Maybe.

Kevin Towers (Phoenix)

Who's the grittiest power-hitting outfielder on the market?

David Schoenfield
  (1:25 PM)

Sorry, Skip Schumaker just signed with the Reds.

Will B (Bozeman, MT)

Just a little more venting about the MVP award, I am not saying cutch was not deserving he certainly was, but everyone calling the St.Louis writers homers because they voted Yadi first? i dont think people actually understand the value yadi brings that cannot be measured by statistics, he caught what, 13 rookies? And nobody calls out the pittsburgh writer who had yadi 9th? that was clearly a move meant to sabotage yadi and improve cutch's chances. The guy who voted yadi 9th is a joke and should never be allowed to vote for awards again

David Schoenfield
  (1:27 PM)

One of the Pittsburgh writers voted Molina 10th. I was a little surprised McCutchen got 28 of the 30 first-place votes, and you're right, a vote for Molina (even if it WAS homer-ism) is still justifiable.

Matthew (Orange, CA)

What do you think the Dodgers Opening Day line up will be

David Schoenfield
  (1:28 PM)

Crawford LFPuig RFGonzalez 1BRamirez SSKemp CFUribe 3BGuerrero 2BEllis C

Alex (NY)

Does Cano have any other realistic options besides the Yankees? It seems if he sticks to his 300M demand, he may end up with a worse deal than what the Yankees are willing to pay.

David Schoenfield
  (1:29 PM)

Probably not a lot of options, since most of the big spenders already have options at second base (Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers). That's why I mentioned the Rangers or Nationals, two teams with money who could re-jigger things to find room for him.

Jon (Massachusetts)

The way you defended Ortiz in your article is ridiculous. Just because he hasn't failed a test, means he isn't using PEDs?? AROD never failed a test either... And BTW, the cheaters are ALWAYS ahead of the testers..

David Schoenfield
  (1:30 PM)

So guilty until proven innocent?

Wes (Memphis)

The one position player or pitcher that wasn't talked about much in 2013 that will be all over the place in 2014 is...?The team that wasn't talked about much in 2013 that will be a force next year is...?

David Schoenfield
  (1:30 PM)

Hmm .. I'll throw this one open to the readers.

Wes (Memphis)

Totally with Will B's sentiment. Seems like more ire is directed at the St. Louis writers for what they did, but nobody is uttering a peep about the guys who shoved Yadi down-ballot. Seems the bigger injustice was to Yadi for those 7th and lower place votes rather than the 2nd and 3rd place votes for McCutchen.

Mike (MO)

Could you see the Cardinals getting into the Cano negotiation? Yankees sign Choo, Beltran, Kuroda, Tanaka then decide to not sign Cano..,

David Schoenfield
  (1:31 PM)

Doesn't seem like a Cardinals signing, especially with Carpenter already at second and Wong ready to play there if they move Carpenter back to third.

Todd (Philly)

You mentioned Kershaw as improving his HOF (albeit young) resume. Did the thought of Johan Santana cross your mind as you contemplated Kershaw? Let's assume Kershaw is at his peak - who was better at thier peak?

David Schoenfield
  (1:32 PM)

Ahh, very good comparison. Considering Santana's peak came in a higher-scoring era, in the DH league, you can certainly argue he was better.

David Schoenfield
  (1:35 PM)

Santana five-year peak from 2004-2008 (includes first year with Mets): 35.4 WAR. Kershaw 2009-2013: 30.8 WAR (but that includes one 170-inning season). Replace Kershaw's 2009/2010 with more 2013 and he's about 5 WAR higher. So, yes, at one point Santana = Kershaw. You never know with pitchers.

Scott (Raleigh)

Will, understand the value of Yadi; indisputable. But the fact is Cutch was the MOST valuable. Better speed, power, played more games, equivalent defense, stole more bases....sheesh....higher obp and ops....it goes on.

TJ (Detroit)

Let me get these three out of the way for everybody...1. No, the Tigers will not trade you Scherzer for your crappy second baseman and fungible middle reliever.2. Yes, Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer.No, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Famer. There- now for something important. Where will my wife's fave Omar Infante wind up? (She loves his name- says it's romantic...)

David Schoenfield
  (1:36 PM)

I'd predict back with the Tigers. Assuming they're not the wild card for Cano!

Nick (OH)

Does familiarity play that big a role in acquiring players? Walt Jocketty seems to sign whatever former Cardinal that had a big year 5 years ago. Tell me Skip Schumaker won't be a regular for the Reds in 2014. Tell me! Please!

David Schoenfield
  (1:36 PM)

Sounds like second-base insurance if/when they trade Phillips. So ... batting second for the 2014 Reds ... SKIP SCHUMAKER!

Hubie Brooks (Flushing)

David Wright a HOFer?

David Schoenfield
  (1:37 PM)

Not yet. Three more big seasons gets him in the discussion.

Todd (LA)

It seems like the catcher and SS positions have declined more offensively league-wide than other positions since the "steroid era." Is there a sense that those positions were more impacted by performance enhancers than others?

David Schoenfield
  (1:38 PM)

Not sure if that's true or not. I think catchers have actually done pretty well (relative to league). As for shortstop, what you had was that golden era -- A-Rod, Jeter, Tejada, Nomar.

Hek (Wilmington, DE)

$310 Million.. Really. What world do Jay Zee and Cano live in? Is there even a remote chance that Cano will be worth the league minimum at mid - end of the deal? In the non steroid era - all players should be put to bed at age 36...

David Schoenfield
  (1:39 PM)

They can ask but they're not getting $300 million. I'm not sure they'll get $200 million.

CC (Atlanta)

Braves core keepers: Freeman, Simmons, Minor, Teheran, Beachy. Trade: Medlen, Heyward, Kimbrel. Sound about right? I love Kimbrel but can't justify playing a closer that much. And Heyward... I'm just not convinced he's all that. Plus corner OFs are easier to find.

David Schoenfield
  (1:40 PM)

Good piece from Dan Szymborski today suggesting Braves should trade Kimbrel. Won't happen, but the idea has some logic.

5pointz (RIP)

At what point does the camel's back get broken in Queens? The situation there is as bad as I've seen for a major league ownership. The team has no plan, no direction, and no ability to spend its way out of trouble. The team's own beat writers, who have been unnecessarily sympathetic for the last 4 years, have fully turned on the team. No free agent wants to hear from them even if the Mets could afford it. They have massive bank debt payouts for 2014 and 2015. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? Baseball deserves better.

David Schoenfield
  (1:41 PM)

Can't really disagree there. I guess that plan is "young pitching on the day, hope Harvey is ready in 2015, hope Wright ages well ... and then find seven more position players."

Charles (San Jose)

Why not trade Kimbrel if he can't get into the most important game of their season?

David Schoenfield
  (1:41 PM)

Exactly. He had no value in that game, that's for sure.

David (KC)

Justification for voting Yadi 9th: he was 9th in the NL in WAR. Next!

JM (Dayton, OH)

If your Walt Jocketty and you have Phillips, Hannigan, Bailey or Leake, and Chapman available as trade chips, who do you target to address the CF, LF, RH power bat issues.

David Schoenfield
  (1:42 PM)

If I'm an opposing GM and going for it in 2014? Bailey.

Dale (KY)

It has been reported Arizona may look to trade Aaron Hill for salary reasons, and also that they have interest in Nate Schierholtz. Sound like a good trade scenario given each teams needs?

David Schoenfield
  (1:44 PM)

Hill's deal is pretty good -- three more years, $11-12 per season. Schierholz has, what, one year until free agency? And they have Parra, Eaton, Ross, Pollock ... Schierholtz is a nice player, but I think Hill is worth more.

Jon (Massachusetts)

Dave: Once a cheat, always a cheat... look at Bonds, Armstrong and Belichick as examples of cheaters

Rob (Lime Rock, CT)

Jerry Reinsdorf stated there is some money to spend through a trade or free agency. Any chance they could be a "mystery" team for either Choo or Ellsbury? Would love to see them grab one of those guys and Chris Young.

David Schoenfield
  (1:46 PM)

I thought they were bringing Konerko back! Sure, they *need* some good players, so I could see them being a sleeper team.

Erin (Pennsylvania)

Any thoughts on where Ellsbury will land?Two weeks ago it was all Seattle, now their interest seems to be diminished. Are teams just keep their cards close to their chests and waiting for things to shake out as the off seasons progresses?

David Schoenfield
  (1:48 PM)

Seattle front office is always pretty tight-lipped, so you never get many rumors from there. My thought all along has been: Why would Ellsbury want to go from Boston to a junk organization like Seattle? Unless he's totally blown away by a crazy offer. So ... anyway, I really have no idea. Rangers could be a possibility, although they want power more than speed/defense right now.

Bill (Melbourne, FL)

What happened to the Yankees farm system?...2-3 years ago they were stocked with catchers anc pitchers.....poor coaching??

David Schoenfield
  (1:49 PM)

Some injuries, some guys just overrated (as Yankee prospects often are), Montero-Pineda trade didn't work out.

Drew (Mpls)

Terry Ryan's brain : open freeagentpitchers.xls, sort by average fastball velocity, see Bronson Arroyo, get aroused, call his agent

David Schoenfield
  (1:50 PM)

Most logical predictions of winter: Nathan to Tigers, Arroyo to Twins, Phillies to sign old guys. Hey, one of those has already happened!

Chris (Hartford, CT)

Bryce Harper 2014 MVP?

David Schoenfield
  (1:51 PM)

I know that's who Eric Karabell will be picking.

Dave (Seattle)

What direction is Seattle going to take with McClendon as manager. They have tried pitching and defense... pitching and power... Nothing has been working, what is the plan?

David Schoenfield
  (1:51 PM)

Plan? HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Wes (Memphis)

@David in KC,McCutchen was 2nd in WAR, so I guess a 2nd place vote is defensible then, right? Next!

David Schoenfield
  (1:51 PM)

Carlos Gomez was robbed!

Tim (AZ)

Kimbrel for Price would be interesting. But as a Braves fan, I think getting younger, cheaper guys would be better.

David Schoenfield
  (1:52 PM)

Hadn't thought of that one. Hmm ... I would guess the Rays don't value a closer, even Kimbrel, enough to make that trade.

Andrew (WI)

As long as we're talking Ortiz and the HoF........Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Rafael Palmeiro*, Mark McGwire*, Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, Fred McGriff. All 1B/DH types. All either on the ballot now or will be on the ballot before Ortiz. There's a good chance Ortiz gets caught up in the positional logjam and doesn't get in that way.

David Schoenfield
  (1:54 PM)

Terrific point. One thing Hall of Famers haven't really adjusted to: The quality of play gets better through the years, thus it's more difficult for even the best players to excel when compared to their peers. Look at the all-time WAR leaders -- you see a bunch of guys born in the 1800s or who played before World War II. Logically, you can't really say all the best players played in the first half of the 20th century. ...

David Schoenfield
  (1:55 PM)

So you end up with a bunch of really good players, like your list of first basemen, all of whom have cases to be made, all of whom will have some trouble getting in. (I don't think Thomas gets in on the first ballot, although maybe Thome does.)

Tarek (NYC)

I was looking at the 2014 HOF Ballot by WAR. I think WAR lied to me, said Kenny Rodgers had a higher WAR than Donnie Baseball, and Jack Morris :)

David Schoenfield
  (1:57 PM)

Rogers: 219-156, 4.19, 107 ERA+. Morris: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA .

Dale (KY)

If the Rays are really looking for a major leaguer in a trade for David Price, should the Rays trade Price for Starlin Castro (and maybe a prospect or two, not named Baez, Almora, Soler, or Edwards, ie. Vogelbach etc)? Why or why not? They could never get 7 years of Castro for 60 million for only 2 years of Price if he hadn't had a down year.

David Schoenfield
  (1:58 PM)

I think they can do better than Castro, who was so bad last year I don't think even the Rays think they can fix him.

Pepe (Boston)

There's been a lot of chirping about Trumbo to the Sox for Middlebrooks and Doubrount, but trading Middlebrooks for Trumbo (albeit Trumbo has a longer track record of power), is like trading for an older version of the same player plus Doubrount. I'm more interested in trying to trade Doubrount for some of the undervalued Angels, like Bourjos and Conger, who could do decent as fill-ins for the departure of Ellsbury and Salty.

David Schoenfield
  (1:59 PM)

Agreed. Trumbo doesn't seem like a Red Sox kind of player, but if they don't believe in Middlebrooks, I guess there's some logic to it. But Trumbo is also about to get expensive and his OBP is still around .300. Trumbo may get dealt, but probably not to Boston.

Rob (Houston, baby!)

Any bats available that you could see the Pirates taking a flyer on? They could use someone to fill their 1B/RF hole who could contribute more than a .310 OBP. (Yes, Choo would look nice in black & gold, but I suspect he'll cost more than the Bucs are likely to spend.)

David Schoenfield
  (2:00 PM)

How about Curtis Granderson? They could use some power, although I guess a Granderson/Alvarez combo could be exposed by lefty pitching.

Joshua (Richmond, VA)

What about LaRoche to the Pirates? He's in the final year of his deal, and the Nats could move Zimm over to first. Thanks.

David Schoenfield
  (2:00 PM)

That could be a match. Good one.

Joshua (Richmond, VA)

Price to the Nats for Espinosa, Karns, Goodwin, and Detwiler. Who says no?

David Schoenfield
  (2:00 PM)

Come on ... not even close for Price.

Charles (San Jose)

Will Jack Morris be the last stand of the dinosaurs in the BBWAA?

David Schoenfield
  (2:02 PM)

Will be a VERY interesting vote. Players usually get a last-year boost BUT borderline candidates like Morris also usually suffer when clear HOFers at their position join the ballot. So, Morris will get some votes for his last year but lose others because Maddux and Glavine are on this year. I think he falls just short.

Dan (New York)

Poll: who would you rather have for their career Kenny Rogers or Jack Morris?

Ryan (Montreal) [via mobile]

Has any player today seen more of a transformation in a specific skill from their rookie season as Yadier Molina has in his hitting ability?

David Schoenfield
  (2:03 PM)

Good question. I would doubt it. Although Molina really only had the one really bad year (.216 in 2006). Otherwise, it was kind of slow, steady improvement.

Nolan (Myrtle Beach)

Is Vladimir Guerrero a 1st ballot HOFer

David Schoenfield
  (2:04 PM)

I would vote for him, but he won't make it first ballot.

Wes (Memphis)

I love WAR and find it a very useful stat, but it's also become a sad excuse by many fans, supposedly many very intelligent ones, to not think critically any more. What say you?

David Schoenfield
  (2:04 PM)

I think the fans who use WAR are probably the ones much more likely to think critically.

Michael (Syracuse, NY)

More talk in Cincy about Votto's walks. This is a continuing issue, and with Votto seemingly unwilling or unable to change, and the Reds wanting more 'value', is there any chance of a big deal to a team that DOES value Votto's game and is willing and able to field the price? (Boston, Texas, maybe Seattle?) The Red could then become sudden players for someone like Cano.

David Schoenfield
  (2:06 PM)

Hmm ... as good as Votto is, that's still a huge bunch of future earnings to pay for a first baseman. Still, an interesting idea, if unlikely.

Kevin (Boston)

If you were Ben Cherington, what is a package you would offer the Marlins for Stanton?

David Schoenfield
  (2:08 PM)

Well, if you're the Marlins you don't make a deal without Bogaerts, right? And the Red Sox aren't trading Bogaerts.

Eric (Chicago)

Cubs sign Cano (lose 2nd round pick, not 1st because it's protected), Infante signs with NYY and the Tigers make a trade for the Cubs Barney. There, all done. Sign on the dotted line! Sorry, even as a Cubs fan, I wouldn't want that, not right now at least.

Ian (OK)

David, you've used WAR to bang the drum for Raines and you've been ok with PED users in the hall. Why aren't you supporting Palmeiro more? He has more WAR than Raines, in fewer years, nearly twice as many 4+ WAR seasons. Sure, he'll never get in after they way he finished his career but he was better than Raines.

David Schoenfield
  (2:10 PM)

Don't believe I've really written anything in-depth on Palmeiro, so I'm not really for or against him at this point. Worth a blog this offseason to study his case a little deeper.

David Schoenfield
  (2:10 PM)

OK, final thoughts time. Send 'em in!

Patrick (Chicago)

Carlos Gomez or Andru Jones --- who was better (defense only)?

David Schoenfield
  (2:16 PM)

Jones ... although Gomez was pretty close this year.

Charles (San Jose)

Can you think of a situation where a player walking a lot is a bad idea other than one who blatantly takes drivable strikes to work the count?

David Schoenfield
  (2:17 PM)

No. The whole "Votto walk too much" thing is absurd.

Chris White (Atlanta, Georgia)

Freeman for Price, Braves sign McCann and he plays first????

ron (elburn)

When Greg Maddux doesn't get 100% of the HOF vote, what will suffice as an excuse?

David Schoenfield
  (2:17 PM)

He's no Walter Johnson!

Tarek (NYC)

Robbie Cano, don't you know 310 million is a no go. Okay that was just awful.

Drew (Mpls)

Palmeiro had 2,000 more plate appearances than Tim Raines. That helps get him the extra 2.7 wins.

David Schoenfield
  (2:18 PM)

Leaving aside the PED issue, Palmeiro was a great compiler. I prefer peak a little more than longevity, which is why he's borderline for me.

Mike (Cinncy)

Is the "Votto walks too much" story the dumbest thing ever?

David Schoenfield
  (2:19 PM)

It's up there.

Charles (San Jose)

Wow, we have no final thoughts. How sad.

David Schoenfield
  (2:19 PM)

Sorry, stepped out for a second.

Gabe (Cincinnati)

maybe Jocketty always deserved a manager like Dusty. He seems to have the same misguided beliefs about OBP.

Marc (California)

Dark Horse team in the Ellsbury battle: Giants. They move Pagan to LF and bat him second, making way for Ellsbury to play CF and bat leadoff.

Brian (WI)

When will we see the first $40 million per year player.... Kershaw? As a GM wouldn't you rather overpay 5 or 10 million for 5 years than be stuck with a $30 million player in year 8 or 9 of his contract when he's useless

David Schoenfield
  (2:20 PM)

Trout

Tim (AZ)

Heat up the Hot Stove already. We need a blockbuster

Matt (Steinway)

Selig is keeping Wilpon around to keep player salaries down. No Mets Money = soft market for high end free agents.

Gabe (Cincinnati)

still don't agree the furor over the recent PED guys. Nobody seems to fight over the admitted amphetamine users (Aaron, Mays, Rose, etc.). It's a PED too!

Kevin (Boston)

How about the kind of offer Theo supposedly made to the Mariners for Felix? For Stanton, take Doubront and any four of our prospects not named Xander.

David Schoenfield
  (2:21 PM)

Right, something like Doubront, Bradley, Barnes and Mookie Betts.

Mark (Milwaukee)

Why wouldn't the Red Sox trade Bogaerts for Stanton? I think he ends up at third making his bat less valuable and Stanton with the monster? WOW

Ian (OK)

Palmeiro avg 5 WAR for a decade. That's a lot longer peak than Raines.

David Schoenfield
  (2:24 PM)

Raines five-year peak: 32.2 WAR, average 6.4 per season. Arguably best player in NL over that span. Palmeiro's best five-year peak looks like 26.6. It's an interesting comparison though. I *do* believe the statheads overstate Raines' case a bit. He's not a slam dunk.

Mike (WV)

The argument against Maddux will be "they all cheated so I won't vote for any of them!

Shane (Phx)

Mr. Shoenfield, you appear to be a sneaky Dbacks fan; so maybe you can help me to understand why the team's concern is for a SP not bullpen?

David Schoenfield
  (2:25 PM)

One of these days I'm going to write my piece on why the D-backs should trade for Price. But, yes, I think they make some move in the bullpen after the problems last year. But they're also only one year removed from having one of the best bullpens.

e (guess)

please tell me the indians will not trade Kluber for Trumbo

David Schoenfield
  (2:25 PM)

They'd have to sign a starter before they consider trading Kluber, no?

Jason (Somerville, MA)

With all the awards-related attention Yadier Molina has been getting has me wondering what exactly makes him different from Jason Varitek? Seems like they're similar players but Varitek never got anywhere near the MVP buzz that Molina does. Was that just a function of Varitek playing in Boston or is there something else at work here?

David Schoenfield
  (2:27 PM)

It has to do with the eras they played. When Varitek was it his best there were 15 guys in the AL hitting 35+ home runs. That's not the case now with Molina, so offensive numbers look much better than Varitek's did. (And Molina is regarded as the better defender, although Varitek was praised for his leadership skills.)

David (KC)

If St. Louis writers/fans are the only ones assigning such a large value to things Yadi does that can't be measured, so that it clearly makes up the statistical gap, then they are probably exhibiting some bias. Especially when the argument is that the rest of us poor souls just don't understand. That's the very definition of homerism, is it not?

David Schoenfield
  (2:29 PM)

Sure. My point was that a Molina-as-MVP case is defensible. But you're right: When the only two who thought he was MVP were both from St. Louis, I think it's fair to say it's a case of homerism.

Gabe (Chicago)

"other than one who blatantly takes drivable strikes to work the count?" See: Mauer, Joe

Amy (Vermont)

Yadi is recognized for his intangible talents out of St. Louis. That's why he finished 3rd in MVP voting.

Tim (AZ)

Trumbo to the Marlins was the best proposed trade I have seen yet. For Turner and parts.

Fred (Austin, TX)

"What direction is Seattle going to take with McClendon as manager." What direction? BACKWARD!

Wes (Memphis)

I also predict that just Maddux, Glavine, and Biggio are elected to the HOF this year, Maddux with 98%, Glavine with 87%, and Biggio with 78%

David Schoenfield
  (2:30 PM)

Sounds about right. I think Thomas and Morris end up just short.

Eric (Chicago)

Cubs trying to get Felix? Ha, that's a new one. Not happening and that's just a rumor. No truth.

Patrick (Chicago)

Palmiero's best 10 year WAR according to baseball reference was 42.9 (an average of 4.29), hardly a 10 year average of 5 war. In fact he had only 4 5-WAR seasons out of 20

Tarek (NYC)

Wait David, somebody accused you of liking a team? I though you were accused of hating 29 teams!

David Schoenfield
  (2:31 PM)

And the D-backs of all teams! Must be the grit and the hustle.

Patrick (Chicago)

Who is the young Beltre/Beltran playing today (i.e. the sneaky good young player who doesn't have eye-popping stats, but who will be a HOFer once all is said and done)?

David Schoenfield
  (2:33 PM)

Good question. Readers?

David Schoenfield
  (2:35 PM)

Not sure there's a good answer to that one. Longoria? McCutchen would have been a good answer before this year, but now he has an MVP Award.

Kevin Towers (Phoenix)

The Dutch Derek Jeter!

Mike (MO)

Andrus

Eric (Chicago)

Jason Kipnis...watch out!

Tim (AZ)

Freeman could be Beltre

David Schoenfield
  (2:35 PM)

I thought of Freeman. Young enough to still get better. Maybe Goldschmidt just had the first of 10 great years.

Steve (NYC)

Allan Craig

David Schoenfield
  (2:35 PM)

Too old.

Aniel Hernandez Jr (NyC)

i believe thet young eye popping player is playing 3rd base for oakland right now

David Schoenfield
  (2:36 PM)

Same as Craig -- too old. Donaldson isn't that young.

B Mand (Sarasota, FL)

Will Pedroia be HOF worthy at the end of his career?

David Schoenfield
  (2:36 PM)

Wrote about him yesterday. Still has work to do, but with 3-4 more good years, his case gets interesting.

Dan (New York)

Re: David in KC. But we're talking about unmeasurable value. This is value that will be best observed by people who watch Yadi day in and day out. Maybe that's homerism, but the St. Louis writers also have the best idea and most information of what that value means to the Cards.

David Schoenfield
  (2:38 PM)

But you can make the same argument about any player, no? Maybe Paul Goldschmidt offered great advice to other hitters on Arizona. Maybe Andrelton Simmons was so good defense he gave the confidence to Atlanta pitchers to throw more strikes. And so on.

JJ (Liberty Twp, OH)

The Patriots were robbed!

Jon (Bozeman, MT)

Although he has gotten a lot of press, Machado will be comparable to Beltre when he's done.

Stan (Iowa)

Arenado

Gabe (Cincinnati)

next beltran = Hosmer (of late 2013, not 2012)

Ian (OK)

Patrick - you're just wrong on Palmeiro's WAR totals. Look again. 49.6 WAR from 90-99

Ian (OK)

I think Patrick in Chicago was looking at oWAR.

Joseph (Sacramento, CA)

Ian Desmond

John (Cincinnati, Oh)

jordan zimmermann

Ruth (Atlanta)

Freeman!!

Bob (Paris)

I'm going with Panda

David Schoenfield
  (2:39 PM)

OK, once again ... final thoughts! This time for real.

James (VA)

Ryan Zimmerman, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones...I think all three have legit shots at the Hall

Tim (AZ)

Harper will be the Beltran.

Mike (San Diego)

My vote for young guy who will be under-appreciated is Jason Heyward. He's already the best player on his team, but most people see him as 4th or 5th.

Dan (New York)

Ya, Dave, maybe. But maybe it's a wash because most beat writers are at least a little bit homerish.

Tarek (NYC)

Speaking of KC, how about Gordon? Or is he too old as well.

David Schoenfield
  (2:40 PM)

Yeah, not good enough, not getting better at this point.

Andrew (Tacoma)

Raul Ibanez

Matt (DC)

You know what Kevin Towers favorite movie(s) are? True Grit!

Bob (Paris)

The confidence Yadi gives the Cardinals young pitchers is beyond measure. You think Wacha does what he did without him?

Brian (NYC)

you can't say "this player is better than that one because I saw him play everyday." Unless you saw EVERY PLAYER play every day, how could you know one is better than another.

Wes (Memphis)

I know I'm a "homer," but I'll say Adam Wainwright on the sneaky HOF case. Good chance for his win total to reach into the low- to possibly mid-200s with a very high win%, postseason success, career ERA in the low-3s. Needs to nail down at least one CYA though.

Ruth (Atlanta)

Andrelton Simmons will eb locked up sooner then later for the Braves. Hopefully sooner so they ca also lock up Freeman

Eric (Chicago)

David, when will a big name sign? I'm talking Cano, Ellsbury, Choo etc. Not Ruiz, Byrd or Hudson.

David Schoenfield
  (2:42 PM)

Big guys take longer. Usually not until the winter meetings or after -- so early/mid-December.

David Schoenfield
  (2:42 PM)

OK, just called into a meeting. Have to run. May chat on Monday next week, so stay tuned.