Hello all and welcome to the latest fantasy sports chat session... the baseball season has started but it really gets started this weekend, so get those questions in. Thanks for showing up, hope you're enjoying your day and here we go!
Good job on the FFocus this year! Need to keep one of Carlos satana, Desmond or elsbury in a 5x5 with opb instead of avg, 10tm, 2 of every position except 4 of
Thanks! Having a blast on the podcast! Ellsbury is a first-round pick in most leagues so while I like Desmond, the lone middle infielder that went 20/20 last year and Santana, a catcher that really gets on base with walks and will play third base, Ellsbury remains the top guy.
Jose Reyes or Ian Desmond? Desmond or Segura?
Desmond in each case and for me it's not close. Reyes is hurt again. Segura scares me.
Pick one: Rendon, Kelly Johnson, or Johnny Peralta in an OBP league.
Rendon still has some OBP and overall upside left.
How soon before games start does ESPN change when a player goes from DTD to the DL? I have a couple guys on my roster who already are starting on the DL and I need to grab a player to put in his position!
We can't give players the asterisk until the teams officially place their players on the DL. And most will wait until the weekend. This isn't a conspiracy!
In a 12-team keeper with extra DL and bench slots, where would you take Harvey? And, when might one look to take Buxton in such a format?
I still want to win now so I'd probably pass on each. Neither is playing in the majors this season. Also, TJ surgery is no guarantee the year after... I would say after round 20 on both, when you've established your lineup and rotation.
Dan Straily,Yordano Ventura, Tanner Scheppers. How would you rank them?
Just that way. I can't make any case to roster Scheppers but Straily is top 60 and Ventura is close.
Hey Erik, which young pitcher will avoid the sophmore slump between Shelby Miller, Teheran, and Gerrit Cole?
All will be terrific this season, but Teheran seems like the best value to me. Cole most upside.
Thanks for all you do - great job on the podcast - REALLY appreciate the time you take talk about players relevant in deeper leagues. My question: AL Only League. final keeper comes down to JJ Hardy at $15 or N.Jones at $1. (JJ will probably go for at least as much in this year's auction.) Also: Brad Miller - over/under 450 ABs this year? Thanks for chatting!
Thanks! I think Hardy is worth somewhere near $15-17 overall but surely Jones, a closer, would go for double digits. And Miller will play regularly and be terrific. Over.
You see that blast Heyward hit yesterday? He looks like he did right before he caught a fastball off the jaw. How many homers for him this year? You think he runs more batting leadoff?
Big fan. Got Heyward for a nice $20 in our staff auction last night (19 teams). I think he's hitting 25 homers, stealing 15-plus. Was 20/20 two seasons ago and is only 24. Big upside.
I drafted Machado. (Who do you like to fill in. Chris Johnson or Nolan Arenado
I'd actually go Chris Johnson early on. I'm a tad intrigued by him hitting cleanup and the NL East is just awful after Wash and Atl. And it's only a week anyway. Machado should be back soon.
Khris Davis-what can we expect this year?
I realize not everyone likes him. Some think he's no more than a fourth outfielder. I don't think he's a star but can he hit 25 homers, knock in 80 and hit .270. Yes, I think I can. The fact he's not a prospect isn't fantasy relevant. Nice 20th round pick.
Which young pitcher would you take a flyer on? Odorizzi, Hutchison, Kelly, Peralta and Skaggs?
Everyone seems to be raving about Skaggs but I take Odorizzi first. Love the Rays, think they really know what they're doing and Odorizzi should be durable and a good enough strikeout pitcher (150?).
If you load up on hitters early, you comfortable with Lester, Samardja, Wacha, Wilson types being the top of your rotation?
Would prefer one ace in that crew, but if that's my 2-5, then sure.
Looking forward to opening day! Who would you rather have as your 5th/6th SP? Ian Kennedy or Taijuan Walker?
Walker has more upside, but he's also dealing with a sore arm. I'd take Kennedy in San Diego. And nobody seems to want him.
When do we see Carlos Martinez in the rotation?
It doesn't appear that we will this season, at least early on. And I think Joe Kelly can be competent enough and Martinez will be so good in a setup role that Martinez doesn't start any games.
Is Javier Baez going to make any type of impact this year? I drafted him late in a keeper, but now I'm in a roster crunch where I need to drop someone in order to fill my week 1 lineup. Do I dump him or Carlos Quentin?
Well, I would attempt to keep Baez around. Quentin isn't exactly durable and seems easily replaceable.
Kevin Gausman?? Rotation? Closer? Minors?
Seems like minors but I expect he'll be back with Baltimore by June. And really could be their best pitcher, so do not presume the big league numbers from last year will be his future. Rotation if Orioles are smart.
What type of numbers do you expect from Xander Bogaerts? You think he will have something similar to what M Machado had last year??
Sure. I think initially 15-70 for power and obviously upside for more in time. He and Machado will be great for a long time.
Votto seems to be considered a top 5 player in OBP leagues, however, to me it's just one category and you seem to take an RBI hit as it's difficult to drive in runs when you're walking so much. No disrespect to Votto, but the bump seems somewhat high. Please comment.
I think it's ridiculous that people assume Votto will knock in only 77 runs again. I could see that being 90 or more pretty easily. It's not that he lacks RBI potential because he walks too much. Walking is a good thing!
I don't hear about Colby Rasmus much as a legit sleeper, but dude would've hit 30 HR's and driven in 90 runs if he didn't get hurt. Plus he impover his plate discipline in second half. Are you buying him as someone to target late?
I am. Nice late round pick that should provide the power numbers.
Cutting Profar...who's a better pickup: Ackley or Rendon?
I'd rather have Rendon and hope his power develops a bit more. Ackley seems like he's going nowhere.
Is Kershaw starting Sunday night? I'm in a head to head league and I was thinking of grabbing a couple Padres to try to help with counting stats then dropping them the next day, but I probably won't do that against Kershaw.
I don't know why the Dodgers wouldn't start Kershaw on Sunday. He'll be rested enough. One would think they would maximize their best option to win. But this is also a team that hit Justin Turner second in their opener, so who knows what they think.
Kershaw, Minor, Wood, Nova, Porcello, Ventura.....need a more reliable number 2 or is this serviceable?
Minor could miss April so while your ace is the best, overall this rotation could use some work.
Would you really take Ortiz in the 1st round of a points league (as his ranking would suggest)?
More like early second but yeah, Ortiz is an incredible value every year. Finished in the top 20 on the overall player rater last year, including pitchers, yet he's still outside the top 50. A year ago he was outside the top 100! But top 15 in points leagues, sure.
How is Jose Abreu going after guys like Moss and Adams? He has top 3 round upside and has been getting rave reviews. I can't remember a more hyped player getting so under drafted.
Abreu is going far earlier than those guys. It's not even close. Sixth round generally. Adams is 12th.
Realistic opinion on Ryan Braun, should I keep him in a 12 man 5x5, I bought him for 36, thanks love te pod cast, daily listener
I expect he will be very good, maybe not like the MVP days - which weren't that long ago - but 25-30 homers, good average, 15-20 steals. In my second round.
Last year you touted joe mahoney? So why should I follow your touting of this ruggiano guy!
I don't think I touted Mahoney... probably mentioned him as a possibility for first base in Miami, but let's not go overboard.
Will Tommy Hunter keep the gig or should I be stashing O'Day?
I doubt either of them will get more than 20 saves unless they suddenly can retire left handed hitters.
Do you think Pedro Alvarez will make that jump like Chris Davis did?? Let's be honest he will never challenge for a batting title, but is it possible he has MVP numbers??
Sure, it's possible. But he doesn't have the discipline at the plate that Davis does. I suppose 40 homers are possible, but .250 still.
I could be remembering incorrectly, but I think you have said in the past that you favor drafting talent over position. I "get" this philosophy to the extent that I would rather have the 10th best OF than the 10th best 2B. But I don't really understand why you wouldn't reach a little bit early in the draft to get a top 3 2B/SS. If you're confident you can fill more talent-heavy positions later, this seems like an appropriate strategy. Thoughts?
I don't think the normal offensive positions like first base and outfield are deeper than the other spots this year. You want Adam LaRoche? Your point is valid in theory, and when in doubt deciding between equal players at 1B and 2B, sure, I'd probably go middle infield, but I don't want Ian Kinsler in round 3, either. No extra points for avoiding one weak hitting spot. It's about total roster construction.
Given how wins are unpredictable and a few wins here or there can shift a few points in a roto league, would you give a bump at all to Ryu in a league drafting this weekend and counting stats retroactively? It's a guaranteed win after all
Not really. It's a six month season so Ryu will get his 15 or so wins regardless. Maybe if choosing between him and Teheran, equal in ADP, give the nod to the guy with a win. That's all.
Kole Calhoun or Christian Yelich?
Two nice sleepers! I think Yelich is a bit further along and brings more upside, but they are pretty similar. If Calhoun slips 3 rounds further, he's the better value.
What is realistic for Nick Castellenos this year? I hear all the hype but find that rookies rarely live up to expectations in first year...
I've been comparing him statistically for this season with David Freese. Like .260, 15 homers, 70 RBI. And will get better in future years.
What do you think of Schoop and when do you think he wil be in the majors?
I think he might be the starting second baseman next week, but I have doubts he'll hit enough to keep the job when Machado returns to play third and push Flaherty off. Flaherty probably plays second base regularly for O's.
Do you think Pedroia goes back to hitting 15-20 HRs this year?
At least. Yes.
In a mixed auction league do you prefer Cano for $35 or Pedroia for $25?
James Paxton is flying way, way under the radar. He's only 1.4% owned! As an expendable last starter on a deep roster keeper league, do you take him or Cosart?
Definitely Paxton over Cosart. You don't want Cosart. Paxton should be a nice strikeout guy and gets the better home ballpark for pitchers. And he's just a better prospect, too.
Should Javier Baez be stashed right now in 12 team leagues?
Sure, but don't expect him in the majors until the Super2 deadline in June.
Do you see Ryan Howard bouncing back this year?
Wade Miley or Jake Odorizzi?
Miley is obviously more proven and he's not such a bad K option. I don't think Odorizzi will be an ace.
You mentioned that you are a fan of Eaton yesterday. I want to trade for him but don't know what's fair value. Is Lance Lynn not enough to offer for him? Is Tanaka too much?
Not sure your rotation or outfield depth, but Tanaka is at a far different level for value. Keep him. I'd probably keep Lynn, too. Safe, reliable starter with good Ks on good team.
What's the latest on Hamels' return?
Last week of April? As of now still no reason to be concerned about his shoulder after April.
Do you see Drew Smyly being a top 50 starter this year?
No, but close. Modest upside.
Who is getting the closer role for the White Sox? Lindstrom or Jones?
I think it's Jones, but the White Sox really haven't made anything official yet.
Is Ben Revere just a "one-category" guy or does he offer more than steals? Is he a better replacement to guys like Morse, Reddick, Rasmus, Brantley, etc. How would you rank them?
I'd probably take all of them over Revere unless you really need the steals. Revere is no lock to hit for average and hasn't any power at all. The other guys are better fantasy options and a few could and should hit 20-plus homers.
Hi Eric Please rank---khrush davis, soriano, calhoun, swish. Thanks!!
Soriano is best there. I think he'll be very good again. Then Davis, Swisher and Calhoun, who remains unproven and doesn't figure to hit for much power.
Who do you think is going to make the biggest impact as a team this year?
I think the three best teams are all in the NL. Nats, Cards and Dodgers. Doesn't mean one will win the World Series, though.
In a vacuum, would you rather have Jay Bruce/Latroy Hawkins or Yoenis Cespedes/Huston Street?
Will Tim Lincecum be worth owning in a 10 team league?
Barely. Lot of strikeouts but potential damage to the ERA and WHIP.
Help me settle a crazy debate with a friend. He is convinced that Wil Myers is as valuable as Eric Hosmer in a dynasty league. I think he is crazy. What do you think?
I don't think my vote settles it, but I think each is valuable. Hosmer is more valuable because he steals bases and figures to hit for a higher average. But Myers also projects for more power. I'd take Hosmer. But it's not a one-sided argument.
Are Harper, Puig and braun $35 players in an NL only?
I wouldn't spend that much but Harper probably is. Puig is a dangerous signing in NL-only.
Lincy or Odorizzi?
Depends if you need Ks. I'd trust Odorizzi, though.
Can you please tell the league office that these games in Australia and Japan really mess up fantasy leagues on when we can draft? Also, how does a league have their opening game at 2:00am EST?
Pretty sure they don't care about fantasy!
Do you see Oswaldo Arcia being a good OF sleeper? Or is he just a fastball hitter who will get exposed this year.
Can't he be both? I think he hits 20 homers and won't hurt a batting average. But still needs a little work overall.
Do you see Rougned Odor getting any time in the BIGS due to the absence of Profar?
Eric We have a Problem, I am not a ranger fan but drafted Beltre, Darvish, Choo, and Rios. What do i do
Enjoy! All are good options. You don't need to be a Rangers fan!
Call me crazy but I think A Simmons finishes ahead of E Andrus and J Reyes. Break out candidate??
I don't think that is crazy at all. Not at all. One-category steals guys that are currently hurt vs. a 20-homer middle infielder that is younger... hmmmm
If Longoria can bring his average up to about .285, do you see him being a top 10 player this year?
If we could count on durability and he hit .285, sure. But we can't.
When do you see Springer being called up? Immediate impact player?
Early June. When all the top prospects come up for silly financial reasons. Baseball is hard to believe sometimes.
Is Mitch Moreland going to hit 25hrs in that Texas line-up?
I'll take the under but he's legit late at corner.
My OF is very old, who's a young guy that I can bench for when Sizemore, Beltran and Cuddyer get injured?
That's not optimistic! How about Eaton or Calhoun?
Thoughts on Ryan Flaherty? It's spring of course, but he's raking, and he can hit for power.
We didn't need the spring to know he has interesting infield pop. I think he sees the most time at second base and could hit 15-plus homers.
Speaking of Position Scarcity -- I think THC should have ROASTED you on the podcast, it seemed like you totally backtracked on your "there is no position scarcity" standpoint, and said in fact, there is.... you can say it's overrated, but don't say it doesn't exist if you don't believe it.
There is no position scarcity. Doesn't exist. People get it wrong all the time and I did not back off. And he can roast me... but we're not acting on the show. It's all legit.
How long do you think Matt Adams will be an everyday player?
If he hits and Taveras can't get his act together, all year. That's a 25-homer guy.
Do you like Brett Lawrie and Ryan Goins this year?
Um, Lawrie. Easily.
Drafted Profar for $1 in a 6x6 keeper league (OPS) and then immediately lost him. Is he worth holding on to for 10-12 weeks on DL? Who do you replace him with out of Dozier, Kendrick, K. Johnson?
If those guys are out there then no, it's shallow enough that you cut him and don't wait unless there's nobody else in that DL slot. Even at a buck. And Dozier.
What do you see from Matt Kemp this year?
About 120 games. And not a lot of stealing bases.
Best guess...where does Baez play when he gets called up?
Second base. I think Castro will bounce back nicely.
Fan of the podcast. After listening to your talk about the lack of SBs and it increasing the value of 20/20 threats, I am rethinking my keepers. Would you keep Lawrie or D. Jennings over Rosenthal?
Yeah, probably. I rarely keep closers. I'd go Jennings.
Would you prefer Josh Reddick or Junior Lake this year as a OF backup?
Yeah, easily. I don't buy Lake's spring power, though he will probably play a lot.
You are completely wrong about position scarcity and deep-down you know it.
Thanks for the support.
When do you think Gregory Polanco comes up, and when he does, how do you think he produces?
Projects as a 12-homer, 35-steal guy with 500 at-bats. So cut those in half for his three months? Upside for more obviously.
Do you see me putting up top 10 3rd Base stats this season?
Nope. Pretty average guy.
EK, what kind of numbers do you see out of Pineda this year?
Want to project his 2011 numbers but I don't see how a reasonable person can expect this. 20 starts? 3.75 ERA? 7 K/9?
Who do you like more this year in an OBP league: Austin Jackson or Ben Revere?
Jackson, but I also think Revere is just a fourth outfielder being exposed.
E.K.: Ricky Nolasco now in MIN. Viable 5th starter or streamer-at-best?
Be careful. Few durable guys have a reputation for the occasional 10-run pounding like he does.
Does a league with no bench increase pitcher value for draft?
Yes it does! I have a league like this and I'm more likely to overspend for an ace.
Going to see the Phils at the Cubbies in a couple of weeks. Am I looking at two 1-0 games that weekend?
With those pitching staffs, not likely.
I don't think you are wrong that position scarcity is overrated when comparing Cano to Fielder.... but you ADMITTED on the show that if two guys had the same exact stats, you would take the second basemen, that is admitting that position scarcity exists!!
That's not what position scarcity means. It's a tiebreaker. I didn't say 2B was stronger than 1B. But I would never take Aaron Hill over Adrian Gonzalez.
What's your best guess on Springer's call up date, and do you think he'll be worth rostering when he's up?
Early June and yes. Seems like the Astros aren't hiding the reason why he's in the minors. It's about money. Shame. But all teams do it.
in 2014 Jose Abreu will bat __ with __ homeruns and __ rbi.
How about .270 with 27 and 85
Do you see me being moved into the bullpen after the all star break again?
True/False: In 2015 Bogaerts will be drafted ahead of Machado.
Good one! I'll say no. But each top 50. That's kinda bold.
My goodness you answer a lot of questions! Impressive. Need OF. Adrian Gonzalez for Jason Heyward fair? 10-team, H2H, keeper.
Don't you love when people put words in your mouth?
Doesn't faze me in the least. Gotta have thick skin to work here. Makes me laugh!
20 team dynasty league. Was offered Mike Minor straight up for Tony Cingrani. What should I do?
I would take Minor still. Proven commodity.
Chris Johnson is my 3rd baseman in a 12 team league. Is that trouble?
Not ideal but it's irrelevant; it's about the total makeup of your team. He might be your worst hitter. I laugh when people say they have to have a strong infield... no you don't. You need a strong offense. If you have a great infield but no outfield and it all adds up, that's the point.
If you had to pick a player that is no 1 overall going into next year not named Trout or Miggy who is it?
Good one! Braun or Harper.
I think your 11 year old would enjoy the Lego Movie - you should take her.
I will ask her again.
What is the earliest you would draft Tanaka?
Can't ever answer that. All leagues are different. Maybe 8th round but depends on makeup of team and other factors.
You don't think Goldy can be number 1 with another top notch season?
Yeah. That's what I said... amazing. Of course he can. Was looking off the radar.
Why is everyone so down on Matt Moore. That boy can pitch, is still young, and coming along nicely. What gives?
Walk rate is worrisome. Generally leads to inflated WHIP. And the wins... could easily drop 5 if he pitches the exact same. We're not down on him; many think his value is inflated. Different things.
Drew Stubbs...what do ya think?
He can't hit right-handers... but can find a way to hit .230 with 12 homers and 25 steals anyway. Some value there.
Would you admit your projections for Abreu are conservative? What do you consider his upside?
If only 10 guys hit 30 home runs then I think the projections are safe, but yeah, there's more upside. We don't know.
Alex Wood or Yordando for your last pitcher?
Alex Wood is safer.
You still like Chad Qualls for saves in Houston?? I'm holding Qualls and Fields for now and I'll need to drop one for a 5th OF when the Season starts.
Astros seem intent on not telling anyone, using the annoying term committee. I doubt we'll know by next week.
You didn't answer second question Michael from Milwaukee asked. Will Springer be an immediate impact when he is called up? Thanks. Your work is exceptional.
Thanks and yes, immediate potential for 20/20.
lost out on villar in my quest for late round MI speed. settled for escobar in KC. tell me everything is going to be ok?
Well, yeah, kinda. Villar isn't great though. Escobar can approximate his numbers in theory.
If there is no position scarcity, it would NOT make sense to use 2B v 1B as a tiebreaker! You are tying yourself into pretzels of illogical reasoning.
You really need to let this go. So what is the tiebreaker? The alphabet?
Your thoughts on the reigning AL ROY Wil Myers?
Eventual 30-homer guy, with some danger of .250 batting averages. But pretty safe.
I drafted Ryan Howard as my 2nd starter in a 2 1B league expecting mediocrity from him. Am I even going to get that from him?
Well, to be fair, I could see him hitting 20 homers, batting .250. So it's not like he's a ton worse than the Swisher and LaRoche types. He just looks terrible in comparison with before the leg injury. I wish it wasn't so. Yes, you could get usable numbers.
I may have overpaid for Venable a little bit? Make me feel better.. What are expecting from him this year?
It's tough to expect the same power again... but 15 homers, 25 steals, still nice value there.
We heard Stephania's rank of Darvish on the podcast but how far are you dropping him now, if any?
Yeah, that was shocking! Everyone should listen to what was said on the podcast! I am not dropping him yet, but then again, I am not drafting him or Wainwright or Lee or a top 10 pitcher in the first place.
How many ABs for Matt Adams this year?
Starting to think more than 400 because Taveras is not healthy.
Does Semien start at 2B now the Beckham is hurt? what kind of like do you see for him?
Potential to hit for modest teens pop and run. Really like him, but the Sox seem committed to Beckham when healthy. Would need a long-term injury or a trade.
Gomez to the lead off spot. What will happen?!
More runs, maybe more steals, fewer RBI. Still avoiding him.
Sizemore ?.....Is he back to being Grady Sizmore if healthy?
Spent a buck on him in the Tuesday auction... so I hope so! But I doubt it.
Position scarcity means you would need to draft one of the top guys to get any numbers from a position (2B and C in the recent past, for example). That's not the case this year, but doesn't mean the same numbers from a SS aren't worth more than they are from a 1B.
Stanton at the end of the 3rd round (14 teams) - was this a good pick?
The Rangers are looking at Darwin Barney... if traded, does that speed up the Baez timeline?
Not really. Cubs know the deal...it's financial.
OK, that was a lot of questions answered, so hopefully I got to yours! Thanks so much for the attention, whether you sent a question or read the wrap later! Regardless, we appreciate all of you and thanks for checking us out! Good luck in your drafts and look for my chats every Wednesday at 11 am ET! Have a great day!