Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
Last week had only one greater than sign. Good to see this getting back to its former level - although that does look like more greater than signs than where we left off.
Hi KC, do you think that Mike Wallace can still be an elite WR?
He started looking like more of an elite WR late last year. And Miami did throw him a ton of long passes (he had some of the highest air yard numbers in the NFL). Am thinking the Fins new OC will help the situation.
How much would the potential loss of Alex Mack impact the Cleveland offense? Seems like 31 other teams have figured out how to be productive without paying riduclous $$ to a center. Thanks.
Center is often a position where a bad player can lose a team a game more often than a good player can win one. Cleveland has the cash and Mack isn't just a solid player - he might be the best center in the NFL. They ought to pony up the money and keep him.
Would you take Lesean first overall in a fantasy draft?
Wouldn't be opposed to it. Would probably rate Charles a quarter step higher.
KC, what do your metrics tell you about Tannehill and do you think the Dolphins should draft a QB in the first couple of rounds?
There is a long form explanation but the short form version is he needs to do a much better job on vertical passes. The Dolphins won't land one of the dominant QBs and therefore shouldn't invest in a draft QB. They just need to work on getting Tannehill to play closer to his talent level.
i saw something last week about the best WR duos in the league. Many folks picked the bears with jeffrey and marshall. I agree...would any of your metrics support that?
Again, there is a long form answer but the short form answer is those two would almost certainly rank first. They both excel on vertical and stretch vertical passes (top 10 caliber) and no other team has players who can make that claim at the pass volume level Jeffery and Marshall can.
what do your metrics say about this years crop of qbs? seems like they're bound to be just average starters.
Just wrote an Insider article about Bridgewater that showed why he should be the first overall pick - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10742611/2014-nfl-draft-case-drafting-teddy-bridgewater.
Where do you rate Doug Martin for next season?
Am thinking top 10 among RBs. RB class is still really weak and won't get much better via the NFL draft.
Are the Eagles simply by default the pick to win the NFC East?
Yes, but keep an eye out on the Giants. That is foreshadowing for a TFS ESPN Insider article that will be posted tomorrow morning.
Could the AFC West be a darkhorse for one of the more competitive divisions next season?
If Oakland could have held up its end of the bargain last year, the AFC West could have challenged the NFC West as the most competitive division in the NFL. Not sure the Raiders will be much improved this year but even if they are a 6-10 candidate, it might be enough to keep the AFC West in toughest division contention.
which young qb, say in his first or second year has the best chance to make a big jump next season?
Bridgewater is NFL ready. Put him on a team with a solid supporting cast and he can be a top 15 QB in 2014.
Sure, I'm biased as a Bears fan, but the turnaround they've done the last couple of years is impressive, isn't it? They seemed to be on a path trending down, but they've made several smart moves to retool on the fly.
They have made a lot of smart moves but the most impressive thing might be the job Trestman has done in getting Cutler to post a low BDR total. That looked like an impossible task and he got it done.
what kind of window do you give the Broncos to win a title with Manning?
Do you think that Seattle and/or San Francisco can sustain their success long term?
Absolutely. Both have a clear vision for what they want to do, young personnel in many key positions and a strong front office. Barring any issues (e.g. Harbaugh leaving, the recent issue with Kaepernick, etc.), both clubs should be set to contend for the next 3-5 years.
Which team with a sure bet hall of fame QB -- Patriots and Broncos -- is better suited to stay at the top when their HOF QB retires?
Good question. Would say Denver due to a lot of their success being due to Elway. He's younger than Belichick and would therefore probably be more likely to continue his success.
RIP Ultimate Warrior
Only in pro wrestling does a guy go into the HOF on Saturday, be showcased in WrestleMania on Sunday, have a prime segment on Raw on Monday and die on Tuesday. RIP indeed.
For Fantasy purposes, who do you like for your third RB out of Moreno, Jennings and Greene?
Tough call. Would say Jennings by a gray hair.
what metric is the most underrated and makes you scream that teams don't use more?
Vertical productivity. It's not just a predictor of arm strength and downfield accuracy - a QB also has to stand in the pocket. Too many QBs inflate their numbers on dink/dunk passes and those just aren't that important.
It seems this time of year we always hear everything about QBs -- hand size, arm strength, etc....what do you make of all of the combine numbers and measurements for QBs? Do any of them matter? What is the most important one?
Too bad the combine doesn't have a toughness measurement. That's one of the best indicators of QB success.
REally?? Bridgewater? It seems like in the last month the NFL draft pundits have gone down on him. What makes him suited to be the best in the class?
There are a lot of elements - key being his rating in the Parcells Rules. But he also had an insanely low BDR and fared extremely well in passing against a lot of pass rushers.
Best RB to take in a PPR league?
That's partly because only in wrestling is there a WrestleMania.
This is true. But dying after the HOF in wrestling just seems to be somewhat par for the course. If it happened in any other HOF, it would be shocking.
Who will be the best fantasy defense this year?
Still thinking Seattle.
how much has your analysis of QBs changed the last 4-5 years with the huge change in how teams approach the passing game?
Not much. The things that NFL QBs really need to do to succeed hasn't changed all that much. The read option is already being successfully defensed to the point that it is now a change of pace rather than a leading element for QBs.
Have to franchise one player from my team last year: Brees, Forte, Fitzgerald...who?
Brees is going to have a monster year. If you have any kind of plan B for replacing Forte, franchise Brees.
Do see V. Jackson having a better year with McCown as his QB, Top 10 maybe?
Can't quite see a top 10 overall ranking but top 10 WRs - absolutely. McCown isn't a long-term solution but he played extremely well last year. And if he does get hurt, Glennon has proven he can produce as well.
how much of a hit does DeSean Jackson's fantasy value take this year?
No hit at all. RGIII led the league in vertical YPA in 2012. Jackson is a terrific downfield threat. RGIII's value increases with Jackson and Jackson's value stays the same or possibly increases.
Does Robert Woods have little to no value with an unproven QB, team WR depth as well as the addition of Mike Williams?
Williams is a downfield threat. Woods is a terrific short pass WR. Different skill sets, so they can actually work together quite well.
Obviously Dallas needs to improve their D but assuming Aaron Donald isn't available at 16 I'm not sure there's a defensive player really worth drafting there. If that's the case wouldn't it make sense to draft a guy like Zack Martin and try to build the best young O-line in the league?
It's easier to coach up offensive linemen than it is to coach up defensive linemen. Dallas probably ought to go with a DL or front seven player in the first round - their D has got to get better personnel-wise.
Speaking of McCown, what kind of numbers do you think he could put up given a full season to start?
If he holds up for the entire season (not a given since he is in his mid 30s), it would be 4K yards, 25-30 TDs and 10-15 ints. Talking low-end QB1 numbers.
How do Emmanuel Sanders vertical metrics look? Is he a WR3 with serious upside?
His vertical metrics were actually really bad last year but some of that is almost certainly due to injury. A healthy Sanders is definitely a WR3 with serious upside.
What are your thoughts on Gerhart in Jacksonville? Excited??
Gerhart has always posted very good GBYPA numbers. Big question mark is can he post them with a higher carry volume. The Jags are building a good team, so it isn't like he will lack for talent around him.
What is your take on the Patriots as a defense? And where should I draft them?
Revis is an upgrade over Talib but Browner is an even more important addition. They will be a top 10 fantasy D/ST. Still can't suggest drafting them before getting all starter spots and maybe the top 1-2 backup spots filled.
Who is the most valuable Packer WR?
Nelson. His vertical metrics were out of this world.
What other holes on defense do the Broncos need to address?
Still not sold on their secondary. Draft should give them options to upgrade there.
Obviously it's hard to tell without knowing who ends up where, but which of this year's WR class is worth a fantasy draft spot (besides Watkins, of course)?
There are as many as 10 draft WRs who could make a fantasy impact. Evans, Lee, Watkins - the list actually goes on and on. WR is going to be a ridiculously deep fantasy draft position this year.
I have always like RBs for my flex in fantasy......I was leaning towards WRs this year but I keep reading that Saints,Packers, Pats, etc are gonna run more....What is your take, more running or passing this year?
Get RBs while you can. There aren't many starting caliber (or even solid backup caliber) ones and WR is a position that is incredibly deep.
Will Jarrett Boykin put up James Jones-esque numbers?
In some ways, but Jones was incredibly adept at posting downfield metrics. Boykin is more adept at short passes.
Surprised Miles Austin is still on the market? Seems to me he could put up some great numbers in the right place/price.
Can he stay healthy? That's the question every team has about Austin. Unless he can assuage their doubts (and if he could do that, Dallas would have kept him), teams are going to be hesitant to sign him.
Hey KC. Do you think AP comes back with a vengeance and is his old self? Thanks!
Hey there! All Day posted pretty good numbers last year. Issue is he has a ton of wear and tear. Very few backs in league history have posted quality numbers after that amount of wear and tear, so there is a huge red flag for AP this year.
Do you see Carlos Hyde putting up Lacy-like numbers?
On the right team, absolutely. Lacy got lucky to go to a Packers club that leans on the run as much as any team in the NFL. Got to hope Hyde ends up in a similar situation.
What rookie running back do u think is going to have the biggest season.
Got to be Hyde. The drop-off after him is pretty significant.
With Harris back from injury and a surplus of RB on the roster, do you see Lacy putting up similar numbers as last year? If not who do you think the #1 2nd year RB is?
As long as Lacy holds up physically, he'll post similar or better numbers than last year. Best 2nd year RB might be Bernard, as the Bengals may end up using him as more of a lead back than a platoon back this year.
Last year, RGIII put up the majority of his numbers in garbage time. To what do you attribute his disappointing first half of games. The Skins scored something like 8 first half touchdowns with him at QB.
The injury slowed him down a lot. And it led to his making many more bad decisions than he did in his senior year at Baylor or his rookie year at Washington. A healthy RGIII will thrive in Gruden's offense.
How is any 2nd year back going to top Zac Stacy? He gets the ball a ton and doesn't share carries at all.
Hey, count me in on the Stacy bandwagon. If the Rams offense plays up to its talent level, the sky is the limit for him.
Follow-up on AP. He's not just an ordinary back. He came back after his knee injury and ran like a rookie. Just saying. Thoughts?
Very true. But if the discussion is top back in the league, there is the injury question mark that has been cropping up on a regular basis of late. Not knocking the guy, just saying he's starting to show signs of wear and tear.
What do you expect out of Andy Dalton?
Three games with dominant numbers followed by a game with three interceptions. He's still a huge risk-taker.
Thoughts on the Browns for the draft? What would you do?
Hire Kevin Costner as GM. Seriously, though, they need to get a QB. There are four potential franchise QBs in this draft and Cleveland has to invest in one of them.
Blast! Stuart broke my chances of three questions in a row!
Hey, three out of four ain't bad. Except that this isn't a question!
Have the Patriots done enough this offseason to put them in serious Super Bowl contention?
Upgrading the secondary was a huge plus for this club. They were only a game away from the Super Bowl last year and are at least at that level this year.
You say get your RBs while you can.....would you rather have Moreno or Greene ( committee) over a V. Jackson in a dynasty league if you have Jordy, Pierre, Edelman and Marvin Jones? My only other RBs are Lacy, Stacy and A. Brown.
The RB prospects drop off really fast after those two. Would be inclined to keep Moreno or Greene over Jackson if only because Jackson's productivity will be a lot easier to replace.
It might be too early to ask this, but is Jermichael Finley worth a pick in a fantasy draft?
Tough call at this point. Would really like to see that he is back to full strength (or as close as one can be after that kind of injury) before investing a pick. This year's draft also has a couple of tight ends who can make a first-year impact, so Finley's value may drop a bit because of that.
What do you think Moreno can do in Miami? Does that become a three headed platoon with Miller and Thomas, or does he take the lead?
They do seem determined to prove Thomas has what it takes, even though he seems to have proved he isn't a top-flight RB. Got to think that's a platoon situation with Moreno as the lead in the platoon. Think something like 175-200 rushes/receptions as things stand now.
Hey, just had a couple of time sensitive items come up that need to be addressed, so am going to hit the road. Quick note before heading out - links to the TFS ESPN Insider material are always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks very much for the interesting questions and I hope to see you all here next week!