Good afternoon! Let's talk some fantasy football!
Where would you take Ray Rice in an average Draft? I dont think he's a top 7 back off the board anymore, Thoughts?
Rice ranks 23rd on ESPN's latest FFB RB rankings - http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/FFLranks14RB/2014-fantasy-football-rankings-preseason-top-running-backs. As noted in today's TFS ESPN Insider article on Baltimore's offense, there is a good chance the Ravens rush attack will still struggle in 2014.
Hey KC. I play in a 2 QB league. Keep RG3 or Lacy in the 4th? Keep J. Bell in the 12th or Vereen in the 9th?
Hey there. Got to answer some questions off-line (either on Twitter or via email). For the FFB query, tough call but would keep Lacy given how hard it will be to replace him. Keep Vereen.
Are Doug Martin and Alfred Morris being drafted too high this year? They seem like they both should be late 2nd round or early 3rd round picks given their situations.
Yes and no. If the RB pool were a bit deeper, they would not be drafted nearly as high as they are. Given the state of the RB class, they are both 2nd/3rd round caliber candidates.
We know Brees spreads the ball around but do you see B. Cooks having an impact as a rookie?
Got him pegged for about 40-50 catches and roughly 600-700 and 4-5 TDs. A good WR4 who could turn into a WR3. Am much more sold on Stills as the best NO WR to get.
KC, when will the ESPN mock draft auto-draft list be updated for this year? Players like Ray Rice, MOJO and Run DMC are still being Autopicked when they are going rounds later in ADP... who has the power to update that?
I don't know the specifics of the system updates but my understanding is issues of this nature are being worked on.
Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers?
Will still take Manning but not by much. GB is going to run the ball a ton but so is Denver, so neither of these two is going to reach the upper limit of their passing talents.
Why are you hating on the Ravens? this is the NFL anything can happen.
What led to that article is that Baltimore had the worst offense in the NFL last year and really didn't do much of anything to upgrade it. A new play caller is all well and good but their woes last year had as much to do with talent as they did with play calling.
Hey KC, thanks again for doing the weekly chat. If you are in a league that does 6 points for throwing TDs, does that change your draft strategy for QBs?
Glad to! Can't wait until fantasy season gets into full gear. For 6 pt pass TD leagues, the idea is to consider it a 1.5 QB league. In that instance, an owner cannot wait nearly as long to get a QB or two as they can in standard leagues.
Hey KC, give me a name of a QB who you think will breakout this year?
Got a lot of faith that Eli will get back to form and contend for a borderline QB1 status.
Related note - the ESPN Fantasy Football Draft Kit is now up and running. I penned the QB preview section, so check it out if you get a chance - http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14qbpreview/drew-brees-best-deep-class-quality-options
Also penned the WR preview - http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14wrpreview/calvin-johnson-tops-very-deep-field
Brandon Marshall still the apple of Cutler's eye? Or does Alshon steal more non-McCown throws?
Alshon had much better YPA metrics than Marshall last year but his numbers fell off big-time with Cutler under center. Cutler tends to play favorites with his targets so counting on a Jeffery repeat of last year might not be the highest percentage play.
Is Zac Stacy a top 13 pick? Also I'm tired of John Cena as champ. Give Roman Reigns or Bray Wyatt a shot!
Was reading Meltzer today and he suggested that Cena could have been made champ in part to get him to No. 15 title reign (to eventually move him past Flair's kayfabed title number) and to set him up to lose to Brock. Stacy is a top 13 back but would be hard pressed to move him into the upper half of round one.
His low GBYPA and unsure job security are big negatives.
Not recognizing the addition of Steve Smith is a horrible mistake, will you eat crow if the Ravens prove you wrong?
Absolutely. As I say - sometimes you get the bear. Sometimes the bear gets you. If the Ravens offense turns around, I'll be the first to say the bear got me on that one.
Will any skill position player on the raiders be fantasy relevant this year? If so who is your money on?
Oakland will provide fantasy owners with more than a few solid backups. MJD could bounce back a bit. Rivera has lots of talent at TE.
My breakout QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick! All those weapons. What do you think KC?
Good coaching, solid supporting cast - got QB2 potential at the very least.
KC, Happy 4th Weekend!
Happy 4th to you as well! Please check out Twitter (@KCJoynerTFS).
Since Jay Gruden loves his passing backs, doesn't that mean Alf might struggle to meet RB#2 production?
The bar for RB2-level production right now is quite low. Even if Morris is only a two-down and GL back, that should give him enough workload to get him to RB2 status.
Got to admit that is actually a bit depressing - the RB depth this year is just abysmal.
I've noticed Foster sneaking into the first round in more recent mock drafts. Good call or bad call?
It's easy to put six RBs in front of Foster but after that every back has question marks. Besides Megatron & Brees
What if i am not on twitter ??
How about Facebook?
Two quick questions for you KC. Thanks ahead of time! 1. In your expertise how many "must have" running backs are this year? After they are gone; what strategy would You use? Thanks
Six must have RBs. After that, it's still time to draft RBs but that's the cutoff line to where one can say no WRs/QBs/TEs before this point.
With both in similar situations as it stands now, who do you like more this season between Stacy and Doug Martin?
Tough call. Would say Martin because the Bucs overall offense is better but their run blocking was among the worst in the NFL last year.
KC, do you think that Phil Rivers will be as effective as he was last year or more like the player he was 2 years ago?
Got him pegged as repeating last year's performance. That system is a perfect fit for his current skill set. He could get even better if Allen becomes more of a downfield threat (he did next to nothing on stretch vertical throws last year).
In an auction draft, how much would you allocate to getting a RB 1 and WR 1 ?? (percentage of your budget)
Let's assume a $200 overall auction value. WRs should come in at about $80 total, so one really can't go any higher than, say, $40 for the top player (with Megatron being a possible exception to that rule). Can probably spend somewhere in the $80-90 range on RBs (or maybe more), so would keep that price at around $50-55.
Piggybacking off my last question, I am planning on keeping both Forte and Doug Martin. I seem to end every season with no RBs, so who would be a good RB3 to target and in what round?
Could be lots of good candidates. Sankey, Richardson (depending on if he falls that far). Am really sold on Jennings & Ellington, who both could be RB3s in certain draft rooms.
My breakout TE this year is Levine Toilolo of the Falcons. He might help someone win their league.
Would that someone be Lane? You had great luck with TEs in the TFS Fezzik chat league last year. Was sold on Toilolo in college. Big issue is if the report that Atlanta is doing away with their flex TE role is true.
KC, what is the deal with Josh Gordon? When are they going to announce his suspension? Is it possible that he might actually play in week 1? I have him in a keeper league and need to know whether I should keep him, Gronk, or Julius Thomas.
The answer might not be here for a while. Very tough call to make. Would say Gordon is the right answer but all three are tough long-term projections.
Is The Sunshine Band with you? Do you have any hopes for the future for Latavius Murray?
They are in my iTunes - got to get the groove on now and again! Got a lot of hope for Murray, albeit hope tempered by the fact that he plays for the Raiders. The RBs in front of him are aging and injury-prone, so Murray could very well get some serious PT by year end.
Megatron should go for more than $40 because Megatron >>>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
Had to figure you'd weigh in on that, Doug! And, for the record, his ESPN projected auction value is $51.
KC, I might be in the minority, but I believe that Julius Thomas could end 2014 as the #1 fantasy TE. Do you feel this is far-fetched?
He's got the talent but Denver has a much tougher schedule than last year and thus and could run the ball much more often this year. Can't see Thomas outplaying Graham, either, but could easily see him as a top-3 TE.
Wouldn't be shocked if he ends up scoring more points than Gronkowski.
KC, what should we expect from Harvin this year if healthy? 1400 total yards and 10 touchdowns?
He's never tallied 1K in receiving yards or played more than 600 offensive plays in an NFL season (if memory serves correct). Talent is there but the longstanding durability issues make 1.4 K total yards seem a bit high.
Are there specific draft slots that have yielded better results for you in a draft?
Somewhere around 4-6 works best so far for this reason. It allows for one of the top six RBs, then likely allows for an upper-tier WR/QB/TE (Megatron, Brees, Graham) in round two and a low-end RB2 in round 3. Just like the way that setup could play out this year.
Do you see Steven Ridley rebounding to 1000 yds 10-12 TDs this year?
Gut instinct is NE is going to run the ball a lot more this year and Ridley will benefit from that adjusted approach.
Hey KC, hope you're looking forward to the 4th as much as I am... my question is this: Who are some non top tier players that will produce fireworks in the first couple weeks (due to schedules) that may be great trade bait by week 3 or 4?
Hey there. Am finishing up the schedule analysis over the next few days, should have more specific info on this next week. Let's talk it about then if that's copasetic.
Do you like to have a little taste while chatting?
Learned my lesson long ago - beer and football analysis don't mix.
KCJ, my man! Always look forward to these chats. If you go stud WR/WR in the 1st 2 rounds picking around the 9-10 range, which mid-round RB's do you prefer getting to make that strategy viable? Guys like Spiller, Rashad Jennings, T-Rich, etc? Thanks!
Hey there! The chats are some of the most fun I have all year long. Am sold on Jennings & T-Rich as good mid-round RBs who could provide top-tier point production. Also like Sankey, Ridley and Sproles.
How did you like your team from that last mock draft the ESPN guys did? Saw you got some of your boys, i.e. Ellington
Really liked most of that club. Only regret is drafting Pitta instead of Watkins in round 9. Would make a different move if I had it to do over again. Rest of the roster was strong - got three quality RBs, a top QB and was good with the depth at WR.
I plan on taking advantage of the WR depth and taking chances on high upside guys..what do you think about guys like Corradelle Patterson, Golden Tate, Ruben Randle, and Micheal Floyd?Any of those guys catch your eye?
Sold on Floyd, projecting good things for Tate. Like Patterson but wonder how much of a ceiling he has a one-trick pony. Like Randle's talent but can't get last year's mistakes out of my mind.
I've seen you say in past chats that you think RGIII will bounce back this year, care to explain why?
Most of his history shows he is dominant at vertical passing. Last year he was terrible at it. Improved health and the addition of DJax should turn that around and get him back to his former vertical performance level.
Drafting at 7 in a 12. If I go RB/WR, is it likely that Ellington is still around in the 3rd?
If my math is correct, that would be the 31st pick. Ellington is generally ranked around the 20th spot in RB rankings. Hard to see 11 players at other positions going that early, so the odds are low he would make it that far.
Maybe 30 percent chance if I had to estimate.
KCJ, my man! Does the brutal NFC West schedule that Ellington and Stacy face scare you away at all? Especially given Ellington's smallish build?
Is Carolina still a Top-3 DST in your mind? Their front 7 looks pretty dominant even though their secondary seems to have issues.
D/ST doesn't look to have a lot of top-end depth. A front seven of that caliber makes them top 10 material at any time and the relative lack of depth gets them to at least top 5 caliber.
It's a 6-pt passing TD league so a lot of QBs go in the 2nd...
In that case, Ellington should make it to round 3.
For those looking for the TFS ESPN Insider article on why the Ravens offense could derail their 2014 playoff chances, it can be found here - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11169239/nfl-baltimore-ravens-offense-keep-the-playoffs-2014
Hey, it's been a great chat but got to hit the dinner trail now. Quick notes before heading out. Please check out the ESPN Draft Kit - it has TFS previews for QBs and WRs. Links to those articles and every other TFS writing segment can be found on Twitter at @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks again for all of the great questions and I hope to see you all here next week. Have a Happy 4th of July!!